O26 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Strategic Infrastructure

Reliable low-cost energy

The energy system supplies dependable power at sustainably lower cost while meeting stronger environmental and operating standards.

Why it matters

Affordable reliable energy improves household welfare, industrial competitiveness and the viability of new investment.

Signs it has been reached

Delivered energy costs fall without reliability losses
Firm supply meets demand with adequate operating reserves
Emissions intensity falls across delivered energy

Met when

The mean score of these 2 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Energy Technologies
Energy Infrastructure

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 76; of 197 · 3 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Clean power threshold; 60 of 76 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.5; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Clean power threshold

Middle East settlement

Outbreak defence succeeds

Automated discovery step

Market access opening

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

One scenario at Standard Severe

Binding capability

Nations

Energy Technologies

Resource Infrastructure

Justice System & Fundamental Rights

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Technical & Vocational Skills

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 23%, Netherlands 22%, Germany 22%, France 22%, Japan 21%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	16.4 Advanced → Frontier	23% Likely	7.2%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.8 S15	Energy Technologies · reaches Frontier	Resource Infrastructure 11.8
2	Netherlands	Europe	13.1 Established → Established	22% Likely	6.8%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.9 S15	Energy Technologies	Energy Technologies 12.4
3	Germany	Europe	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	22% Likely	6.8%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.8 S15	Energy Technologies	Resource Infrastructure 13.5
4	France	Europe	16.4 Advanced → Frontier	22% Likely	6.8%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.8 S15	Energy Technologies · reaches Frontier	Resource Infrastructure 12.5
5	Japan	Indo-Pacific	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	21% Likely	6.6%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.8 S15	Energy Technologies · reaches Frontier	Resource Infrastructure 11.8
6	Sweden	Europe	14.1 Established → Advanced	19% Likely	5.8%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.9 S15	Energy Technologies	Resource Infrastructure 10.8
7	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	11.9 Transitional → Established	19% Likely	5.6%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.9 S15	Energy Technologies	Resource Infrastructure 10
8	Finland	Europe	13.0 Established → Established	18% Likely	5.3%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.9 S15	Energy Technologies	Resource Infrastructure 10
9	Italy	Europe	12.3 Established → Established	17% Likely	5.2%	Clean power threshold Severe	×1.0 S15	Energy Technologies	Energy Technologies 11.6
10	Spain	Europe	13.8 Established → Advanced	17% Likely	5.0%	Clean power threshold Severe	×0.9 S15	Energy Technologies	Energy Technologies 12
11	United Kingdom	Europe	15.9 Advanced → Advanced	14% Likely	4.1%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.2 S15	Energy Technologies	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
12	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	9.2 Transitional → Transitional	13% Likely	4.0%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.0 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 8.8
13	Switzerland	Europe	12.5 Established → Established	9.8% Likely	3.0%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.0 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 6.5
14	Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	11.3 Transitional → Established	7.4% Likely	2.2%	Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Severe	×1.2 S14	Energy Infrastructure	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3
15	Belgium	Europe	12.4 Established → Established	6.9% Likely	2.0%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.0 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 9.3
16	Austria	Europe	9.9 Transitional → Transitional	5.5% Likely	1.7%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.1 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Energy Technologies 8
17	Ireland	Europe	7.3 Foundational → Foundational	5.2% Likely	1.5%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.3 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Energy Technologies 4.8
18	Denmark	Europe	9.9 Transitional → Transitional	5.2% Likely	1.5%	Clean power threshold Extreme	×1.4 S15	Energy Technologies	Energy Technologies 9.4
19	Poland	Europe	10.4 Transitional → Established	4.8% Possible	1.5%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.1 S15	Energy Technologies	Energy Technologies 9.4
21	Czechia	Europe	10.4 Transitional → Established	4.4% Possible	1.3%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.1 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Energy Technologies 8
20	India	South Asia	13.8 Established → Advanced	4.4% Possible	1.3%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.2 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Technical & Vocational Skills 9
22	South Africa	Africa	10.3 Transitional → Transitional	4.3% Possible	1.3%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.2 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Energy Technologies 8.8
23	Canada	North America	14.5 Established → Advanced	4.0% Possible	1.1%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.6 S17	Energy Technologies	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
24	Slovenia	Europe	8.7 Foundational → Transitional	3.9% Possible	1.2%	Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.3 S15	Energy Infrastructure	Energy Technologies 5.8
25	Hungary	Europe	9.8 Transitional → Transitional	3.7% Possible	1.1%	Clean power threshold Extreme	×1.3 S15	Energy Technologies	Energy Technologies 8

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.