O44 · Failure outcome · Named · Financial Strength

Loss of financial stability

The monetary, fiscal and financial systems can no longer sustain stable payments, viable credit provision and ordinary public financing without exceptional support.

Why it matters

Financial instability threatens savings, commerce and the government's capacity to meet essential obligations.

Signs it has been reached

  • Payment and withdrawal restrictions become widespread
  • Ordinary public financing requires exceptional monetary support
  • Credit availability contracts across otherwise viable businesses

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Financial Stability & Crisis Management
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Monetary & Currency Capability
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
181
of 197
Typical likelihood
1.8%
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Global funding seizure
78 of 181 nations
Typical headroom
×2.1
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Global funding seizure
Legitimacy rupture
Regional war spillover
Cryptographic trust break
Core disaster
Breadbasket failure

78

32

29

18

16

8

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

One scenario at Extreme

152

18

11

Weakest buffer

Nations

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Maritime Power

Quantum Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Resource Infrastructure

77

17

17

16

11

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0123456Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.7Europe 42Europe mean: 2.4MonacoChina 1China mean: 0.5Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.3South Asia 8South Asia mean: 2.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 1.5Africa 53Africa mean: 2.3CongoDjiboutiSudanSomaliaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 2.1HaitiRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 1.4
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Monaco 6.5%, Congo 5.7%, Djibouti 5.6%, Mauritania 5.5%, Liechtenstein 5.5%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.50246Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)MonacoCongoDjiboutiMauritaniaIndiaJapanGermanyUnited StatesChina
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1MonacoEurope8.1 Foundational → Nascent6.5% Likely1.9%Global funding seizure Severeplans fail×1.5 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementMonetary & Currency Capability 6
2CongoAfrica4.3 Nascent → Inception5.7% Likely1.7%Global funding seizure Severe+Legitimacy rupture Major×1.4 S02Monetary & Currency CapabilitySovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3
3DjiboutiAfrica4.3 Nascent → Inception5.6% Likely1.7%Global funding seizure Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail×1.6 S02Monetary & Currency CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7
4MauritaniaAfrica4.7 Nascent → Inception5.5% Likely1.7%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.5 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
5LiechtensteinEurope9.1 Transitional → Foundational5.5% Likely1.7%Global funding seizure Severeplans fail×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementMonetary & Currency Capability 5.3
6San MarinoEurope7.1 Foundational → Nascent5.4% Likely1.6%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.5 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
7AndorraEurope7.3 Foundational → Nascent4.9% Possible1.5%Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severe×1.9 S02Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6
8PalestineGulf and Middle East4.1 Nascent → Inception4.8% Possible1.5%Regional war spillover Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severe×1.7 S05Fiscal Capacity & Public FinancePolitical Institutions & Civic Participation 4
9GambiaAfrica4.4 Nascent → Inception4.7% Possible1.4%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.5 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6
10GrenadaLatin America and Caribbean5.9 Nascent → Inception4.7% Possible1.4%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4
11MaldivesSouth Asia6.2 Foundational → Nascent4.7% Possible1.4%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.5 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
12Saint LuciaLatin America and Caribbean5.9 Nascent → Inception4.6% Possible1.4%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
13MaltaEurope12.5 Established → Transitional4.3% Possible1.3%Global funding seizure Major+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×2.2 S02Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceResource Infrastructure 3.3
14Cabo VerdeAfrica6.7 Foundational → Nascent4.2% Possible1.3%Global funding seizure Severe+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×1.7 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
15HungaryEurope12.0 Transitional → Foundational4.2% Possible1.3%Global funding seizure Major+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.1 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementQuantum Technologies 6
16El SalvadorLatin America and Caribbean6.6 Foundational → Nascent4.2% Possible1.3%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
17Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and Caribbean6.6 Foundational → Nascent4.0% Possible1.2%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2
18BelizeLatin America and Caribbean6.0 Nascent → Inception4.0% Possible1.2%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8
19ZimbabweAfrica4.0 Nascent → Inception3.9% Possible1.2%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2
20MontenegroEurope7.7 Foundational → Nascent3.7% Possible1.1%Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severe×1.8 S02Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2
21BurundiAfrica3.4 Nascent → Inception3.6% Possible1.1%Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail×1.6 S02Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8
22BahrainGulf and Middle East9.9 Transitional → Foundational3.6% Possible1.1%Global funding seizure Severe+Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail×2.0 S02Monetary & Currency CapabilityFinancial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3
23IranGulf and Middle East6.1 Foundational → Inception3.5% Possible1.1%Legitimacy rupture Severe+Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail×2.1 S05Monetary & Currency CapabilityTransparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3
24GabonAfrica5.3 Nascent → Inception3.5% Possible1.1%Global funding seizure Extreme×1.6 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementSovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
25PortugalEurope13.4 Established → Transitional3.5% Possible1.1%Global funding seizure Major+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S02Financial Stability & Crisis ManagementQuantum Technologies 5.5

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.