O22 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Critical Technology

Higher-value manufacturing

The industrial base can repeatedly produce more complex, higher-value goods with advanced materials, capable facilities and deeper domestic production expertise.

Why it matters

More capable manufacturing strengthens earnings, supplier networks and national production options.

Signs it has been reached

  • Manufacturers meet more demanding quality and complexity standards
  • Domestic value added rises in advanced production
  • Local suppliers qualify for higher-value production stages

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
  • Advanced Manufacturing
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Robotics & Autonomous Systems

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
50
of 197 · 4 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Automated discovery step
33 of 50 nations
Typical headroom
×5.7
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Automated discovery step
Outbreak defence succeeds
Clean power threshold

33

14

3

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Standard Severe

One scenario at Extreme

41

5

4

Binding capability

Nations

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Artificial Intelligence

Energy Technologies

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

22

12

7

3

2

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

051015Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 2.7United StatesEurope 42Europe mean: 2.9GermanyCroatiaChina 1China mean: 15.7Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 2.1South KoreaJapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.1Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.3Africa 53Africa mean: 0.0MoroccoLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 19%, South Korea 18%, Japan 18%, France 17%, China 16%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5051015Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanySouth KoreaJapanFranceChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1GermanyEurope17.7 Advanced → Frontier19% Likely5.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Robotics & Autonomous Systems · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
2South KoreaIndo-Pacific17.1 Advanced → Frontier18% Likely5.6%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 16
3JapanIndo-Pacific17.8 Advanced → Frontier18% Likely5.5%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Robotics & Autonomous Systems · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
4FranceEurope16.4 Advanced → Advanced17% Likely5.1%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
5ChinaChina17.5 Advanced → Frontier16% Likely4.7%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
6NetherlandsEurope15.2 Advanced → Advanced12% Likely3.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
7SingaporeIndo-Pacific14.9 Established → Advanced12% Likely3.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1
8SwedenEurope15.4 Advanced → Advanced8.4% Likely2.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.2 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
9United KingdomEurope15.7 Advanced → Advanced8.2% Likely2.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
10TaiwanIndo-Pacific15.4 Advanced → Advanced8.2% Likely2.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 12.3
11FinlandEurope14.1 Established → Advanced8.1% Likely2.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5
12SwitzerlandEurope15.8 Advanced → Advanced7.7% Likely2.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
13BelgiumEurope13.5 Established → Advanced7.7% Likely2.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.2 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 11
14CanadaNorth America14.2 Established → Advanced5.5% Likely1.7%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
15ItalyEurope14.4 Established → Advanced4.8% Possible1.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 11.3
16AustraliaIndo-Pacific12.7 Established → Established4.7% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.6 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2
17AustriaEurope13.2 Established → Established4.2% Possible1.2%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 10
18IsraelGulf and Middle East14.6 Established → Advanced4.2% Possible1.2%Water-efficient food leap Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
19SpainEurope13.3 Established → Established4.0% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
20IrelandEurope10.6 Transitional → Established3.8% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.6 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingRobotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5
21NorwayEurope12.9 Established → Established3.8% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.6 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8
22DenmarkEurope12.5 Established → Established3.0% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2
24CzechiaEurope11.4 Transitional → Established2.0% Possible0.6%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.8 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8
23PolandEurope12.0 Established → Established2.0% Possible0.6%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.8 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2
25HungaryEurope10.2 Transitional → Transitional1.4% Possible0.4%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×2.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.