O06 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · National Security

Broad rise in national security

The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 10 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Force Generation & Mobilisation
  • Intelligence & Assessment
  • Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment
  • Land Power
  • Maritime Power
  • Air Power
  • Strategic Strike & Missile Defence
  • Space Operations
  • Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations
  • Nuclear Deterrence
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
29
of 197 · 2 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Automated discovery step
25 of 29 nations
Typical headroom
×7.5
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Automated discovery step
Great-power détente
Middle East settlement

25

2

2

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

23

6

Binding capability

Nations

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Artificial Intelligence

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Advanced Materials & Manufacturing

17

6

1

1

1

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0123456Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.8Europe 42Europe mean: 0.4United KingdomChina 1China mean: 3.0Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.5South KoreaSingaporeSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.1JordanSaudi ArabiaEgyptAfrica 53Africa mean: 0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 6.6%, United Kingdom 3.9%, Singapore 3.1%, Japan 3.1%, Germany 3.1%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.50246Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaUnited KingdomSingaporeJapanGermanyChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific14.4 Established → Advanced6.6% Likely2.0%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.3 S17Force Generation & MobilisationDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
2United KingdomEurope16.3 Advanced → Advanced3.9% Possible1.2%Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.5 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
3SingaporeIndo-Pacific12.1 Established → Established3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Force Generation & MobilisationAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1
4JapanIndo-Pacific13.3 Established → Advanced3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.4 S17Force Generation & MobilisationArtificial Intelligence 15.7
6GermanyEurope12.6 Established → Established3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.4 S17Force Generation & MobilisationArtificial Intelligence 15.7
5FranceEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Force Generation & Mobilisation · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
7NetherlandsEurope12.1 Established → Established3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
8ChinaChina17.3 Advanced → Frontier3.0% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Force Generation & Mobilisation · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
9CanadaNorth America11.4 Transitional → Established1.6% Possible0.5%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.6 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
10TaiwanIndo-Pacific11.9 Transitional → Established1.6% Possible0.5%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.7 S17Force Generation & MobilisationArtificial Intelligence 12.3
11SwedenEurope12.0 Transitional → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.8 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
12IsraelGulf and Middle East16.2 Advanced → Advanced0.8% Unlikely0.2%Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Extreme×1.6 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
13BelgiumEurope8.1 Foundational → Transitional0.8% Unlikely0.2%Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Extreme×1.9 S17Force Generation & MobilisationArtificial Intelligence 11
14SwitzerlandEurope8.3 Foundational → Transitional0.8% Unlikely0.2%Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Extreme×1.7 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
15FinlandEurope11.0 Transitional → Established0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×2.0 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5
16IrelandEurope4.3 Nascent → Nascent0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Extreme×2.4 S17Force Generation & MobilisationRobotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5
17ItalyEurope12.2 Established → Established0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Extreme×1.9 S17Force Generation & MobilisationArtificial Intelligence 11.3
18AustriaEurope5.4 Nascent → Foundational0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Extreme×2.0 S17Force Generation & MobilisationArtificial Intelligence 10
19MalaysiaIndo-Pacific8.4 Foundational → Transitional0.3% Unlikelyunder 0.1%Great-power détente Extreme+Automated discovery step Severe×2.4 S13Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
20TürkiyeGulf and Middle East12.7 Established → Established0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Great-power détente Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.6 S14Intelligence & AssessmentJustice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3
24SpainEurope11.6 Transitional → Establishedunder 0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.3 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
21AustraliaIndo-Pacific12.9 Established → Establishedunder 0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.4 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2
22NorwayEurope11.5 Transitional → Establishedunder 0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.4 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8
23DenmarkEurope8.7 Foundational → Transitionalunder 0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Automated discovery step Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.5 S17Force Generation & MobilisationSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2
25PolandEurope11.0 Transitional → Establishedunder 0.1% Remoteunder 0.1%Middle East settlement Severe+Automated discovery step Extreme×2.4 S14Intelligence & AssessmentSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.