O42 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Governance & Integrity

Capable digital government

Public administration delivers interoperable digital services that people can use competently and that meet tested standards of reliability, accuracy and inclusion.

Why it matters

Better administration reduces delay and cost while improving access to public services.

Signs it has been reached

Public services complete transactions faster with fewer errors
Digital service use rises across disadvantaged groups
Independent tests confirm service reliability and accessibility

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Digital & AI Competence
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
Communications & Digital Infrastructure

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 88; of 197 · 12 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Outbreak defence succeeds; 33 of 88 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.2; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds

Chronic disease advance

Public service leap

Automated discovery step

Market access opening

Middle East settlement

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 25%, France 24%, United Kingdom 20%, South Korea 20%, Japan 20%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	Germany	Europe	16.2 Advanced → Advanced	25% Likely	7.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.0 S17	Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Artificial Intelligence 15.7
2	France	Europe	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	24% Likely	7.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S17	Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
3	United Kingdom	Europe	16.8 Advanced → Frontier	20% Likely	6.4%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major	×1.1 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Health System Capability 16.3
4	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	17.4 Advanced → Frontier	20% Likely	6.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S17	Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches Frontier	Artificial Intelligence 16
5	Japan	Indo-Pacific	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	20% Likely	6.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.0 S17	Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches Frontier	Artificial Intelligence 15.7
6	Netherlands	Europe	16.9 Advanced → Frontier	19% Likely	5.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
7	United States	North America	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	18% Likely	5.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major	×1.0 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
8	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	18% Likely	5.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
9	Canada	North America	16.3 Advanced → Advanced	15% Likely	4.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major	×1.1 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
10	Israel	Gulf and Middle East	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	15% Likely	4.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.2 S17	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
11	Sweden	Europe	16.9 Advanced → Frontier	13% Likely	4.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
12	Switzerland	Europe	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	13% Likely	4.0%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
13	Belgium	Europe	15.0 Advanced → Advanced	13% Likely	4.0%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
14	Finland	Europe	17.1 Advanced → Frontier	12% Likely	3.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
15	Australia	Indo-Pacific	16.1 Advanced → Advanced	12% Likely	3.6%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
16	Spain	Europe	14.8 Established → Advanced	12% Likely	3.6%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
17	Italy	Europe	13.6 Established → Advanced	12% Likely	3.5%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S17	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13
18	Austria	Europe	15.0 Established → Advanced	11% Likely	3.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S17	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3
19	China	China	15.5 Advanced → Advanced	9.5% Likely	2.9%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.1 S17	Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
20	Ireland	Europe	15.3 Advanced → Advanced	8.8% Likely	2.7%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11
21	Denmark	Europe	16.8 Advanced → Frontier	8.3% Likely	2.5%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
22	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	18.1 Frontier → Frontier	8.2% Likely	2.5%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1 S17	Communications & Digital Infrastructure · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
23	Norway	Europe	16.7 Advanced → Frontier	8.1% Likely	2.5%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S20	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12
24	New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	7.7% Likely	2.3%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
25	South Africa	Africa	11.4 Transitional → Established	6.9% Likely	2.0%	Public service leap Severe+Chronic disease advance Major	×1.4 S18	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.