O12 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Governance & Integrity

Broad rise in governance and integrity

The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 8 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Political Institutions & Civic Participation
Justice System & Fundamental Rights
Internal Security & Order
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
National Resilience & Crisis Management

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 80; of 197 · 10 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Outbreak defence succeeds; 43 of 80 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.7; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds

Public service leap

Chronic disease advance

Middle East settlement

Automated discovery step

Market access opening

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 21%, Japan 20%, Netherlands 20%, Germany 20%, United States 18%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	15.8 Advanced → Advanced	21% Likely	6.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
2	Japan	Indo-Pacific	15.8 Advanced → Advanced	20% Likely	6.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
3	Netherlands	Europe	16.7 Advanced → Frontier	20% Likely	6.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
4	Germany	Europe	16.4 Advanced → Advanced	20% Likely	6.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4
5	United States	North America	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	18% Likely	5.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major	×1.0 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
6	United Kingdom	Europe	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	18% Likely	5.6%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S19	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · reaches Frontier	Health System Capability 16.3
7	Sweden	Europe	17.1 Advanced → Frontier	16% Likely	4.9%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
8	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	15.2 Advanced → Advanced	15% Likely	4.8%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
9	France	Europe	16.1 Advanced → Frontier	14% Likely	4.4%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Health System Capability 16.7
10	Switzerland	Europe	16.1 Advanced → Advanced	13% Likely	4.0%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
11	Finland	Europe	17.4 Advanced → Frontier	12% Likely	3.6%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
12	Israel	Gulf and Middle East	14.3 Established → Advanced	12% Likely	3.6%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.3 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
13	Belgium	Europe	15.1 Advanced → Advanced	11% Likely	3.4%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
14	China	China	10.7 Transitional → Established	11% Likely	3.1%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.3 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
15	Canada	North America	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	10% Likely	3.1%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.1 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
16	Spain	Europe	14.5 Established → Advanced	9.8% Likely	3.0%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
17	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	15.2 Advanced → Advanced	9.8% Likely	2.9%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1 S20	National Resilience & Crisis Management	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
18	Italy	Europe	13.5 Established → Advanced	9.5% Likely	2.9%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13
19	Australia	Indo-Pacific	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	8.2% Likely	2.4%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
20	Denmark	Europe	17.0 Advanced → Frontier	7.9% Likely	2.4%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
21	Austria	Europe	15.3 Advanced → Advanced	7.6% Likely	2.3%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3
22	Norway	Europe	17.1 Advanced → Frontier	7.0% Likely	2.1%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12
23	New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	7.0% Likely	2.1%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
24	Ireland	Europe	15.1 Advanced → Advanced	7.0% Likely	2.1%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11
25	Poland	Europe	13.1 Established → Established	4.5% Possible	1.3%	Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.6 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.