O02 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Critical Technology

Broad rise in critical technology

The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 10 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
  • Energy Technologies
  • Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Quantum Technologies
  • Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
  • Sensing, Timing & Navigation
  • Robotics & Autonomous Systems
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies
  • Space Technologies
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
58
of 197 · 4 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Automated discovery step
21 of 58 nations
Typical headroom
×5.0
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Automated discovery step
Outbreak defence succeeds
Chronic disease advance
Clean power threshold
Water-efficient food leap
Great-power détente

21

19

14

2

1

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Standard Severe

One scenario at Extreme

52

4

2

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Artificial Intelligence

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

22

12

6

5

4

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

05101520Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 7.8Europe 42Europe mean: 4.5GermanyFranceChina 1China mean: 4.8Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 2.9South KoreaSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.2Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.6QatarAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0KenyaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.1ColombiaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.1
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 23%, France 23%, South Korea 22%, Japan 19%, United Kingdom 19%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.505101520Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanyFranceSouth KoreaJapanChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
2GermanyEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier23% Likely7.2%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Semiconductors & Advanced Computing · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
1FranceEurope16.5 Advanced → Frontier23% Likely7.2%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
3South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.1 Advanced → Advanced22% Likely6.9%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 16
4JapanIndo-Pacific17.1 Advanced → Frontier19% Likely5.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Artificial Intelligence · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
5United KingdomEurope16.2 Advanced → Advanced19% Likely5.8%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major×1.0 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
6NetherlandsEurope14.0 Established → Advanced17% Likely5.4%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
7SingaporeIndo-Pacific12.6 Established → Established17% Likely5.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1
8CanadaNorth America13.6 Established → Advanced16% Likely4.8%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major×1.1 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
9TaiwanIndo-Pacific12.8 Established → Established14% Likely4.2%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 12.3
10SwedenEurope13.5 Established → Advanced14% Likely4.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
11SwitzerlandEurope13.4 Established → Advanced12% Likely3.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
14BelgiumEurope11.3 Transitional → Established12% Likely3.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
12FinlandEurope11.7 Transitional → Established12% Likely3.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5
13SpainEurope11.6 Transitional → Established12% Likely3.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.5 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
15AustraliaIndo-Pacific12.2 Established → Established10% Likely3.1%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.4 S19Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2
16ItalyEurope13.0 Established → Established8.1% Likely2.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingArtificial Intelligence 11.3
17IsraelGulf and Middle East14.8 Established → Advanced7.5% Likely2.3%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.1 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
18AustriaEurope9.9 Transitional → Transitional6.5% Likely1.8%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Major×1.3 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 10
19DenmarkEurope9.9 Transitional → Transitional6.0% Likely1.8%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
20NorwayEurope10.5 Transitional → Transitional5.2% Likely1.6%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.6 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8
21IrelandEurope7.1 Foundational → Foundational5.1% Likely1.5%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.6 S17Advanced Materials & ManufacturingRobotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5
22ChinaChina17.8 Advanced → Frontier4.8% Possible1.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Semiconductors & Advanced Computing · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
24CzechiaEurope8.0 Foundational → Transitional3.7% Possible1.0%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.8 S17Energy TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8
23PolandEurope9.4 Transitional → Transitional3.7% Possible1.0%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.8 S17Energy TechnologiesSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2
25New ZealandIndo-Pacific7.3 Foundational → Foundational2.3% Possible0.7%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S19Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesBiotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.