O09 · Failure outcome · Domain · Information & Influence

Broad fall in information and influence

The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.

Met when

The mean score of these 6 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation
  • Development Cooperation & Global Assistance
  • Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy
  • Diaspora & Global Communities
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
156
of 197
Typical likelihood
0.3%
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Cryptographic trust break
90 of 156 nations
Typical headroom
×2.6
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Cryptographic trust break
Legitimacy rupture
Breadbasket failure
Hybrid coercion
AI labour shock
Trade bloc rupture

90

20

17

12

10

6

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

153

3

Weakest buffer

Nations

Quantum Technologies

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Artificial Intelligence

78

20

19

13

8

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

012345Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.2Europe 42Europe mean: 1.0Holy SeeMonacoMaltaChina 1China mean: 0.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.4Marshall IslandsSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.2Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.5SyriaAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.1SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.1Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.8
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Holy See 6.0%, Monaco 1.8%, Malta 1.5%, Estonia 1.5%, Uzbekistan 1.3%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5012345Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)Holy SeeMonacoMaltaEstoniaJapanGermanyIndiaChinaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1Holy SeeEurope7.9 Foundational → Nascent6.0% Likely1.7%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severe×1.7 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0
2MonacoEurope4.1 Nascent → Inception1.8% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme×1.9 S09Diplomatic Statecraft & Global NetworksQuantum Technologies 0
3MaltaEurope7.1 Foundational → Nascent1.5% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 2
4EstoniaEurope10.5 Transitional → Foundational1.5% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×2.9 S04Alliances & Security CooperationEnergy Infrastructure 8.9
5UzbekistanRussia and Eurasia5.6 Nascent → Inception1.3% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.5
6LuxembourgEurope9.9 Transitional → Foundational1.3% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 3.5
7GeorgiaRussia and Eurasia7.2 Foundational → Nascent1.3% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3
8MalaysiaIndo-Pacific10.9 Transitional → Foundational1.3% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 4
9MontenegroEurope5.9 Nascent → Inception1.3% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.5
10ArmeniaRussia and Eurasia6.7 Foundational → Nascent1.2% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 1.5
11North KoreaIndo-Pacific4.4 Nascent → Inception1.2% Possible0.3%Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme×1.9 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 1.3
13KosovoEurope4.8 Nascent → Inception1.2% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.1 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.3
12CyprusEurope7.2 Foundational → Nascent1.2% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 2
14KazakhstanRussia and Eurasia8.2 Foundational → Nascent1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7
15AzerbaijanRussia and Eurasia7.6 Foundational → Nascent1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 7
16LatviaEurope9.3 Transitional → Nascent1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.6 S04Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9
17IcelandEurope8.0 Foundational → Nascent1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 1.3
19Bosnia & HerzegovinaEurope5.1 Nascent → Inception1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.3
18North MacedoniaEurope5.8 Nascent → Inception1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.8
20SlovakiaEurope9.1 Transitional → Nascent1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.6 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 3.3
21BulgariaEurope8.2 Foundational → Nascent1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 3.3
23ThailandIndo-Pacific10.3 Transitional → Foundational1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 3.3
24HungaryEurope10.3 Transitional → Foundational1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 6
22LithuaniaEurope10.3 Transitional → Foundational1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.8 S04Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
25AlbaniaEurope6.2 Foundational → Nascent1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.3

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.