O35 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Human Capital

Stronger health and biotechnology

Effective health technologies and capable care services deliver sustained improvements in healthy life and access to treatment across population groups.

Why it matters

Better health improves wellbeing and working capacity while reducing avoidable care needs.

Signs it has been reached

  • Healthy life expectancy improves across population groups
  • Effective treatments reach more eligible patients
  • Preventable illness and unmet care needs decline

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Health System Capability
  • Population Health
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
85
of 197 · 8 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Outbreak defence succeeds
48 of 85 nations
Typical headroom
×3.5
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds
Chronic disease advance
Water-efficient food leap
Automated discovery step

48

33

3

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Standard Severe

One scenario at Extreme

75

6

4

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Health System Capability

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

57

12

4

4

4

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0510152025Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 15.2Europe 42Europe mean: 7.5GermanyFranceUnited KingdomChina 1China mean: 10.9Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 3.9South Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.2Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 2.1Africa 53Africa mean: 0.1SenegalLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.7Dominican RepublicJamaicaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.8
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 26%, France 26%, United Kingdom 26%, South Korea 26%, Canada 25%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.5150510152025Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanyFranceUnited KingdomSouth KoreaJapanChinaUnited StatesIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
2GermanyEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier26% Highly likely8.2%Chronic disease advance Severe×0.9 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierCommunications & Digital Infrastructure 16.4
1FranceEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier26% Highly likely8.2%Chronic disease advance Severe×0.9 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5
3United KingdomEurope16.6 Advanced → Frontier26% Highly likely8.2%Chronic disease advance Severe×0.9 S19Health System Capability · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 16.3
4South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.3 Advanced → Advanced26% Highly likely8.1%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S20Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesArtificial Intelligence 16
5CanadaNorth America16.2 Advanced → Advanced25% Highly likely8.0%Chronic disease advance Severe×0.8 S19Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
6TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.8 Established → Advanced21% Likely6.7%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
7NetherlandsEurope16.6 Advanced → Frontier21% Likely6.6%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×0.9 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
8JapanIndo-Pacific17.0 Advanced → Frontier21% Likely6.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×0.9 S20Biotechnology & Health Technologies · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
9SwedenEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier20% Likely6.4%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×0.9 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
10SwitzerlandEurope17.0 Advanced → Frontier20% Likely6.4%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S20Health System Capability · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
11AustraliaIndo-Pacific16.3 Advanced → Advanced19% Likely5.8%Chronic disease advance Severe×0.9 S19Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2
12SingaporeIndo-Pacific16.1 Advanced → Advanced16% Likely5.0%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×0.8 S20Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
13IsraelGulf and Middle East15.3 Advanced → Advanced16% Likely5.0%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Major×1.0 S19Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
14BelgiumEurope15.6 Advanced → Advanced15% Likely4.8%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S20Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
15FinlandEurope15.8 Advanced → Advanced15% Likely4.7%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S20Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
17DenmarkEurope16.1 Advanced → Advanced13% Likely4.1%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0 S20Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
18SpainEurope15.0 Established → Advanced13% Likely4.1%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.1 S19Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
16NorwayEurope15.3 Advanced → Advanced13% Likely4.1%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.1 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
19ChinaChina14.4 Established → Advanced11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.1 S17Biotechnology & Health TechnologiesRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
20ItalyEurope14.5 Established → Advanced10% Likely3.1%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S20Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13
21AustriaEurope14.8 Established → Advanced10% Likely3.1%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S20Health System CapabilityInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3
22IrelandEurope13.4 Established → Advanced8.1% Likely2.4%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11
24CzechiaEurope12.3 Established → Established7.6% Likely2.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8
23PolandEurope12.2 Established → Established7.6% Likely2.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S20Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2
25TürkiyeGulf and Middle East11.8 Transitional → Established7.4% Likely2.2%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S19Health System CapabilityBiotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.