O41 · Failure outcome · Named · Governance & Integrity

Rule of law failure

Public power is no longer reliably constrained by enforceable rights, meaningful civic participation, independent oversight and standards of integrity.

Why it matters

Unchecked public power threatens rights, institutional legitimacy and the fair use of national resources.

Signs it has been reached

Court decisions fail to secure effective remedies
Oversight findings rarely produce corrective action
Public officials evade established accountability requirements

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Justice System & Fundamental Rights
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 181; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.7%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Legitimacy rupture; 93 of 181 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.3; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Legitimacy rupture

Cryptographic trust break

Breadbasket failure

Regional war spillover

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

181

Weakest buffer

Nations

Quantum Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Political Institutions & Civic Participation

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Nauru 2.8%, Monaco 2.7%, Palestine 2.6%, Holy See 2.6%, Kiribati 2.5%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Nauru	Indo-Pacific	4.0 Nascent → Inception	2.8% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severe	×1.7 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
2	Monaco	Europe	9.9 Transitional → Foundational	2.7% Possible	0.8%	Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×1.9 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
3	Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	5.1 Nascent → Inception	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Regional war spillover Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×1.6 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4
4	Holy See	Europe	4.2 Nascent → Inception	2.6% Possible	0.7%	Regional war spillover Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×1.7 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
5	Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	4.4 Nascent → Inception	2.5% Possible	0.7%	Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×1.8 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
6	Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	5.1 Nascent → Inception	2.4% Possible	0.7%	Regional war spillover Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×1.7 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4
7	Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	11.2 Transitional → Foundational	2.2% Possible	0.6%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.4 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 1.3
8	Andorra	Europe	10.9 Transitional → Foundational	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×2.0 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
9	Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	4.8 Nascent → Inception	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×1.9 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
10	Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	5.0 Nascent → Inception	1.9% Possible	0.6%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0.8
11	Iran	Gulf and Middle East	4.8 Nascent → Inception	1.9% Possible	0.6%	Regional war spillover Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×1.9 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3
12	San Marino	Europe	10.8 Transitional → Foundational	1.7% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.1 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
13	Lesotho	Africa	5.6 Nascent → Inception	1.6% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×1.6 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2
15	Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	4.8 Nascent → Inception	1.6% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×2.0 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0
14	Liechtenstein	Europe	12.8 Established → Transitional	1.6% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0.3
16	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	9.2 Transitional → Foundational	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 1.5
17	Latvia	Europe	13.5 Established → Transitional	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.7 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 3.3
18	Malta	Europe	11.5 Transitional → Foundational	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 2
19	Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	7.1 Foundational → Nascent	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 1.5
20	Maldives	South Asia	6.9 Foundational → Nascent	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×2.4 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4
22	Djibouti	Africa	3.3 Nascent → Inception	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×1.7 S05	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7
21	Lithuania	Europe	13.8 Established → Transitional	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.8 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 3.8
23	Montenegro	Europe	9.7 Transitional → Foundational	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0.5
24	Luxembourg	Europe	14.6 Established → Transitional	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.5 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 3.5
25	North Macedonia	Europe	9.8 Transitional → Foundational	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Quantum Technologies 0.8

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.