O14 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Financial Strength

Broad rise in financial strength

The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 6 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Monetary & Currency Capability
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Financial Regulation & Integrity
  • Financial Stability & Crisis Management
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
55
of 197 · 10 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Chronic disease advance
40 of 55 nations
Typical headroom
×4.4
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Chronic disease advance
Clean power threshold

40

15

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

42

13

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Energy Technologies

Resource Infrastructure

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

31

7

6

3

3

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

012345Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 3.8Europe 42Europe mean: 1.3GermanyFranceFinlandChina 1China mean: 1.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.6MalaysiaSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.2EgyptAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0ColombiaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 6.0%, France 6.0%, Taiwan 5.9%, Sweden 5.9%, Spain 5.9%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5012345Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanyFranceTaiwanSwedenUnited StatesJapanChinaIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
2GermanyEurope16.9 Advanced → Frontier6.0% Likely1.8%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.3 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 13.5
1FranceEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier6.0% Likely1.8%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.4 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance · reaches FrontierFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5
5TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.9 Established → Advanced5.9% Likely1.8%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 10
3SwedenEurope16.3 Advanced → Advanced5.9% Likely1.8%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 10.8
6SpainEurope14.2 Established → Advanced5.9% Likely1.8%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.6 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 12
4FinlandEurope15.4 Advanced → Advanced5.9% Likely1.8%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.6 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13
7United KingdomEurope17.4 Advanced → Frontier4.3% Possible1.3%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.2 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 16.3
8South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.1 Advanced → Advanced4.1% Possible1.2%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.3 S15Financial System Depth & AccessResource Infrastructure 11.8
9United StatesNorth America18.1 Frontier → Frontier3.8% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.2 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 15.7
10JapanIndo-Pacific17.0 Advanced → Frontier3.8% Possible1.1%Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 11.8
11NetherlandsEurope16.5 Advanced → Frontier3.8% Possible1.1%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.5 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance · reaches FrontierBiotechnology & Health Technologies 16.6
12CanadaNorth America16.4 Advanced → Advanced3.8% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.2 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
13SwitzerlandEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier3.7% Possible1.1%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.6 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance · reaches FrontierCommunications & Digital Infrastructure 15.9
14BelgiumEurope14.9 Established → Advanced3.7% Possible1.1%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.6 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 14.3
15AustraliaIndo-Pacific16.4 Advanced → Frontier3.0% Possible0.9%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.3 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance · reaches FrontierBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2
16IsraelGulf and Middle East14.0 Established → Advanced3.0% Possible0.9%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.4 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceFiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
17ItalyEurope13.9 Established → Advanced1.5% Possible0.4%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.6 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 11.6
18AustriaEurope14.6 Established → Advanced1.5% Possible0.4%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.8 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12.8
19SingaporeIndo-Pacific17.8 Advanced → Frontier1.3% Possible0.4%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.8 S15Financial System Depth & Access · reaches FrontierResource Infrastructure 8.8
20ChinaChina15.0 Established → Advanced1.1% Possible0.3%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.6 S15Financial System Depth & AccessTechnical & Vocational Skills 13
21PolandEurope13.1 Established → Established1.1% Possible0.3%Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major×1.8 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 9.4
22CzechiaEurope12.8 Established → Established1.0% Unlikely0.1%Clean power threshold Severe+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.8 S15Financial System Depth & AccessEnergy Technologies 8
23DenmarkEurope15.6 Advanced → Advanced0.8% Unlikely0.2%Chronic disease advance Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.6 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15
24IrelandEurope14.4 Established → Advanced0.8% Unlikely0.2%Chronic disease advance Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.8 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11
25TürkiyeGulf and Middle East11.1 Transitional → Established0.8% Unlikely0.2%Public service leap Major+Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.8 S19Fiscal Capacity & Public FinanceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.