O21 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Critical Technology

Frontier AI and compute

The nation can develop, deploy and sustain advanced computing and artificial intelligence systems for a wider range of economically and strategically valuable uses.

Why it matters

Stronger computing capability supports productivity, scientific work and control over essential digital systems.

Signs it has been reached

  • More demanding workloads run on dependable computing capacity
  • Domestic AI systems meet independently tested performance standards
  • Advanced computing expertise supports sustained deployment

Met when

The mean score of these 2 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
58
of 197 · 4 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Automated discovery step
41 of 58 nations
Typical headroom
×5.5
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Automated discovery step
Chronic disease advance
Outbreak defence succeeds
Great-power détente
Clean power threshold

41

12

3

1

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Standard Severe

One scenario at Extreme

40

16

2

Binding capability

Nations

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Artificial Intelligence

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Robotics & Autonomous Systems

31

10

7

4

2

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

05101520Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 9.4Europe 42Europe mean: 5.9GermanyUnited KingdomCyprusChina 1China mean: 17.2Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 3.5JapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.4Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 1.2Africa 53Africa mean: 0.0MoroccoLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0UruguayRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.2
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Germany 24%, United Kingdom 24%, South Korea 22%, Japan 22%, Netherlands 20%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.505101520Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)GermanyUnited KingdomSouth KoreaJapanChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1GermanyEurope15.9 Advanced → Frontier24% Likely7.6%Automated discovery step Severe×0.7 S17Artificial Intelligence · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
2United KingdomEurope15.7 Advanced → Advanced24% Likely7.4%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
4South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.8 Advanced → Frontier22% Likely6.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.7 S17Artificial Intelligence · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 16
3JapanIndo-Pacific16.9 Advanced → Frontier22% Likely6.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial Intelligence · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
5NetherlandsEurope14.2 Established → Advanced20% Likely6.3%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
6FranceEurope15.4 Advanced → Advanced20% Likely6.2%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
7SingaporeIndo-Pacific14.8 Established → Advanced20% Likely6.0%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1
8CanadaNorth America12.9 Established → Established19% Likely5.8%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
9TaiwanIndo-Pacific15.3 Advanced → Advanced19% Likely5.7%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence 12.3
10SwedenEurope11.8 Transitional → Established18% Likely5.5%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
11SwitzerlandEurope13.1 Established → Established18% Likely5.4%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
12BelgiumEurope11.2 Transitional → Established18% Likely5.4%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence 11
13ChinaChina16.9 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely5.2%Automated discovery step Severe×0.7 S17Artificial Intelligence · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
14AustriaEurope10.6 Transitional → Established17% Likely4.9%Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence 10
15ItalyEurope11.3 Transitional → Established17% Likely4.9%Automated discovery step Severe×0.9 S17Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence 11.3
16IsraelGulf and Middle East14.7 Established → Advanced16% Likely4.9%Automated discovery step Severe×0.8 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
17SpainEurope9.6 Transitional → Transitional12% Likely3.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.1 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
18DenmarkEurope8.1 Foundational → Transitional11% Likely3.4%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S17Artificial IntelligenceInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
19AustraliaIndo-Pacific9.6 Transitional → Transitional11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.2 S17Artificial IntelligenceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2
20NorwayEurope8.6 Foundational → Transitional11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2 S17Artificial IntelligenceBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
21IrelandEurope8.8 Foundational → Transitional8.4% Likely2.5%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Major×1.2 S17Artificial IntelligenceRobotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5
22MalaysiaIndo-Pacific9.1 Transitional → Transitional6.7% Likely2.0%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.4 S17Semiconductors & Advanced ComputingSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
23FinlandEurope10.3 Transitional → Established6.6% Likely2.0%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.0 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5
25CzechiaEurope7.6 Foundational → Transitional5.1% Likely1.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8
24PolandEurope8.3 Foundational → Transitional5.1% Likely1.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Artificial IntelligenceSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.