O46 · Failure outcome · Named · Production & Innovation

Loss of industrial capacity

The productive base no longer sustains its previous range, complexity and capacity for making strategically important goods.

Why it matters

Industrial capability losses narrow economic options and weaken the ability to meet essential material needs.

Signs it has been reached

Domestic production capability disappears in important sectors
Manufacturing capacity and utilisation decline persistently
Production shifts towards less complex activities

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Industrial & Sectoral Base
Advanced Manufacturing
Economic Output & Productivity
Labour & Employment

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 169; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.3%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Global funding seizure; 56 of 169 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.0; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Global funding seizure

Core disaster

Severe pandemic

Regional war spillover

AI labour shock

Breadbasket failure

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

165

Weakest buffer

Nations

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Maritime Power

Financial System Depth & Access

Artificial Intelligence

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: San Marino 2.0%, Monaco 1.9%, Liechtenstein 1.9%, North Korea 1.3%, Andorra 1.3%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	San Marino	Europe	6.0 Foundational → Inception	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
2	Monaco	Europe	5.8 Nascent → Inception	1.9% Possible	0.5%	Global funding seizure Severe+AI labour shock Majorplans fail	×2.1 S02	Labour & Employment	Monetary & Currency Capability 6
3	Liechtenstein	Europe	8.6 Foundational → Nascent	1.9% Possible	0.5%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Global funding seizure Severeplans fail	×2.3 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3
5	North Korea	Indo-Pacific	4.7 Nascent → Inception	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.0 S08	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6
4	Andorra	Europe	5.4 Nascent → Inception	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Global funding seizure Severe+Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×2.5 S03	Labour & Employment	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2
6	Malta	Europe	8.9 Foundational → Nascent	1.2% Possible	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×2.8 S03	Labour & Employment	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4
7	Cyprus	Europe	8.6 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.4
8	Luxembourg	Europe	11.3 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Regional war spillover Severe+Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×2.9 S03	Labour & Employment	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5
9	Montenegro	Europe	6.6 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.6 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2
10	Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	4.9 Nascent → Inception	1.0% Unlikely	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail	×2.8 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.2
11	Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	5.9 Nascent → Inception	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×2.5 S01	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Advanced Manufacturing 4.8
13	Maldives	South Asia	4.3 Nascent → Inception	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.2 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
12	North Macedonia	Europe	7.7 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S03	Labour & Employment	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4
15	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	6.7 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S03	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Maritime Power 0.3
14	Slovakia	Europe	12.0 Established → Foundational	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×3.1 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.8
16	Slovenia	Europe	12.3 Established → Foundational	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×3.0 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2
17	Belgium	Europe	15.2 Advanced → Established	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail	×3.6 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.4
18	Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Extreme	×2.5 S03	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Resource Infrastructure 2.8
19	Laos	Indo-Pacific	4.2 Nascent → Inception	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Extreme	×2.5 S03	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Maritime Power 0
20	Bhutan	South Asia	4.0 Nascent → Inception	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Major+Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.6 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Maritime Power 0
21	Kosovo	Europe	4.9 Nascent → Inception	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Regional war spillover Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.5 S03	Labour & Employment	Maritime Power 0
22	El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	6.5 Foundational → Nascent	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Core disaster Severeplans fail	×2.3 S02	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
23	Ireland	Europe	13.6 Established → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×3.3 S03	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.6
24	Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	8.1 Foundational → Nascent	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.9 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3
27	Cabo Verde	Africa	4.0 Nascent → Inception	0.7% Unlikely	0.2%	Global funding seizure Severe+Core disaster Severeplans fail	×2.5 S02	Economic Output & Productivity	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.