O13 · Failure outcome · Domain · Financial Strength

Broad fall in financial strength

The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.

Met when

The mean score of these 6 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Monetary & Currency Capability
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
Financial System Depth & Access
Financial Regulation & Integrity
Financial Stability & Crisis Management
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 178; of 197
Typical likelihood: 1.1%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Global funding seizure; 92 of 178 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.4; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Global funding seizure

Legitimacy rupture

Regional war spillover

Cryptographic trust break

Core disaster

Breadbasket failure

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

One scenario at Extreme

156

Weakest buffer

Nations

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Maritime Power

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Quantum Technologies

Resource Infrastructure

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Djibouti 4.2%, Congo 4.1%, Cyprus 3.2%, Monaco 3.2%, San Marino 3.1%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Djibouti	Africa	4.2 Nascent → Inception	4.2% Possible	1.3%	Global funding seizure Severe+Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail	×1.8 S02	Monetary & Currency Capability	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
2	Congo	Africa	4.0 Nascent → Inception	4.1% Possible	1.2%	Global funding seizure Extreme	×1.5 S02	Monetary & Currency Capability	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3
3	Cyprus	Europe	11.2 Transitional → Foundational	3.2% Possible	1.0%	Global funding seizure Major+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.0 S02	Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Quantum Technologies 2
4	Monaco	Europe	8.0 Foundational → Nascent	3.2% Possible	0.9%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.6 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Monetary & Currency Capability 6
5	San Marino	Europe	6.8 Foundational → Nascent	3.1% Possible	0.9%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.6 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
6	Malta	Europe	12.1 Established → Foundational	3.0% Possible	0.9%	Global funding seizure Major+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.4 S03	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
7	El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	3.0% Possible	0.9%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×1.7 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4
8	Andorra	Europe	7.2 Foundational → Nascent	2.8% Possible	0.9%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×2.1 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6
9	Maldives	South Asia	5.7 Nascent → Inception	2.8% Possible	0.8%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.7 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
10	Mauritania	Africa	4.4 Nascent → Inception	2.8% Possible	0.8%	Global funding seizure Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severe	×1.7 S02	Monetary & Currency Capability	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
11	Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	5.4 Nascent → Inception	2.7% Possible	0.8%	Global funding seizure Severe+Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail	×1.9 S02	Monetary & Currency Capability	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
12	Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	10.1 Transitional → Foundational	2.7% Possible	0.8%	Global funding seizure Severe+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×2.2 S02	Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9.3
13	Liechtenstein	Europe	9.3 Transitional → Foundational	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.7 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3
14	Greece	Europe	11.8 Transitional → Foundational	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Global funding seizure Major+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S02	Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Quantum Technologies 4.8
15	Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	4.0 Nascent → Inception	2.5% Possible	0.8%	Regional war spillover Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Major	×1.9 S05	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Maritime Power 0.5
16	Gambia	Africa	4.2 Nascent → Inception	2.4% Possible	0.7%	Global funding seizure Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severe	×1.6 S02	Monetary & Currency Capability	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6
17	Belgium	Europe	14.9 Established → Transitional	2.3% Possible	0.7%	Global funding seizure Major+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.7 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Maritime Power 7.8
18	Montenegro	Europe	7.2 Foundational → Nascent	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Global funding seizure Severe+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×1.9 S02	Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2
19	Seychelles	Africa	7.6 Foundational → Nascent	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×1.9 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.2
20	Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	5.5 Nascent → Inception	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×1.7 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4
22	Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	6.2 Foundational → Nascent	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Global funding seizure Severe+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×1.7 S02	Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2
21	Slovakia	Europe	11.9 Transitional → Foundational	2.2% Possible	0.6%	Global funding seizure Severe+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×2.3 S02	Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.8
23	Laos	Indo-Pacific	4.1 Nascent → Inception	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Global funding seizure Extreme	×2.0 S02	Monetary & Currency Capability	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8
24	Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	5.5 Nascent → Inception	2.1% Possible	0.6%	Global funding seizure Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×1.7 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
26	Cabo Verde	Africa	6.2 Foundational → Nascent	2.1% Possible	0.6%	Global funding seizure Severe+Core disaster Majorplans fail	×1.9 S02	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.