O43 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Governance & Integrity

Trusted public institutions

Public institutions apply rules predictably, protect enforceable rights and demonstrate effective integrity and independent oversight in their decisions.

Why it matters

Trustworthy institutions protect citizens and make public spending and private investment more dependable.

Signs it has been reached

Administrative and judicial decisions become more consistent
Verified integrity breaches receive effective remedies
Oversight recommendations produce documented institutional improvements

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
Justice System & Fundamental Rights

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 85; of 197 · 8 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Outbreak defence succeeds; 29 of 85 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.4; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds

Public service leap

Chronic disease advance

Automated discovery step

Market access opening

Clean power threshold

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

One scenario at Standard Severe

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Artificial Intelligence

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: United States 21%, Japan 20%, Germany 20%, Netherlands 20%, South Korea 19%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	United States	North America	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	21% Likely	6.6%	Automated discovery step Severe	×0.9 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
2	Japan	Indo-Pacific	15.0 Advanced → Advanced	20% Likely	6.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Artificial Intelligence 15.7
3	Germany	Europe	16.4 Advanced → Advanced	20% Likely	6.2%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Major	×1.1 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Artificial Intelligence 15.7
4	Netherlands	Europe	16.5 Advanced → Advanced	20% Likely	6.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
5	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	15.4 Advanced → Advanced	19% Likely	5.9%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Artificial Intelligence 16
6	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	14.8 Established → Advanced	18% Likely	5.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
7	Sweden	Europe	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	15% Likely	4.8%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
8	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	14.4 Established → Advanced	15% Likely	4.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.1 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
9	France	Europe	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	14% Likely	4.5%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Health System Capability 16.7
10	Finland	Europe	17.4 Advanced → Frontier	14% Likely	4.5%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
11	United Kingdom	Europe	16.4 Advanced → Frontier	13% Likely	4.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.1 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Health System Capability 16.3
12	Belgium	Europe	14.8 Established → Advanced	13% Likely	4.0%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
13	Switzerland	Europe	15.4 Advanced → Advanced	13% Likely	3.9%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
14	Israel	Gulf and Middle East	13.7 Established → Advanced	12% Likely	3.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.3 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8
15	Australia	Indo-Pacific	16.3 Advanced → Frontier	12% Likely	3.6%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
16	Spain	Europe	14.2 Established → Advanced	12% Likely	3.6%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S15	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
17	Italy	Europe	12.8 Established → Established	11% Likely	3.3%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.5 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Artificial Intelligence 11.3
18	China	China	9.3 Transitional → Transitional	11% Likely	3.1%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.2 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
19	Canada	North America	16.4 Advanced → Frontier	10% Likely	3.1%	Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.1 S19	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
20	Denmark	Europe	17.0 Advanced → Frontier	7.7% Likely	2.3%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
21	Norway	Europe	17.1 Advanced → Frontier	7.4% Likely	2.3%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · reaches Frontier	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12
22	Austria	Europe	14.9 Established → Advanced	5.9% Likely	1.8%	Automated discovery step Extreme	×1.6 S17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Artificial Intelligence 10
23	Ireland	Europe	15.2 Advanced → Advanced	5.4% Likely	1.6%	Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.6 S20	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11
24	India	South Asia	10.7 Transitional → Established	5.2% Likely	1.6%	Water-efficient food leap Major+Public service leap Severe	×1.3 S18	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10
25	Poland	Europe	12.6 Established → Established	4.9% Possible	1.5%	Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.7 S15	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.