O23 · Failure outcome · Named · Strategic Infrastructure

Collapse in energy security

Reliable and affordable energy supplies no longer meet essential household, industrial and public service needs.

Why it matters

Energy insecurity threatens essential services, productive activity and basic living standards.

Signs it has been reached

Essential services experience persistent power or fuel shortages
Industrial energy requirements routinely remain unmet
Household energy affordability deteriorates across income groups

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Energy Infrastructure
Resource Infrastructure
Energy Technologies

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 128; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.2%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Regional war spillover; 90 of 128 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.4; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Regional war spillover

Core disaster

Hybrid coercion

Breadbasket failure

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

One scenario at Extreme

102

Weakest buffer

Nations

Maritime Power

Resource Infrastructure

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Energy Infrastructure

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: North Korea 3.2%, Latvia 2.5%, Georgia 2.4%, Lithuania 2.3%, Iran 2.0%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	North Korea	Indo-Pacific	5.0 Nascent → Inception	3.2% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.5 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8
2	Latvia	Europe	5.7 Nascent → Inception	2.5% Possible	0.8%	Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9
3	Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	5.2 Nascent → Inception	2.4% Possible	0.7%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.8 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 3
4	Lithuania	Europe	7.2 Foundational → Nascent	2.3% Possible	0.7%	Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
5	Iran	Gulf and Middle East	10.5 Transitional → Foundational	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Regional war spillover Major+Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail	×1.9 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6
7	Malta	Europe	3.9 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.7 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
6	Iceland	Europe	6.1 Foundational → Nascent	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 3.8
8	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	4.3 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.6 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 1.3
9	Cyprus	Europe	4.0 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.7 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
10	Montenegro	Europe	3.9 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.7 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 2.8
11	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	5.1 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.6 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.3
12	Finland	Europe	12.0 Transitional → Foundational	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.9 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
13	Poland	Europe	11.1 Transitional → Foundational	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.6 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 8.8
14	Ireland	Europe	7.3 Foundational → Nascent	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 4
15	Bulgaria	Europe	8.6 Foundational → Nascent	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 6
17	Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	5.8 Nascent → Inception	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.8 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 5.8
16	Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	7.0 Foundational → Nascent	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.8 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 5.3
18	Slovenia	Europe	8.0 Foundational → Nascent	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.9 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 3
19	Slovakia	Europe	8.9 Foundational → Nascent	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.0 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.5
20	Austria	Europe	9.7 Transitional → Foundational	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.3
21	Greece	Europe	8.5 Foundational → Nascent	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.4 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 10
22	Laos	Indo-Pacific	3.6 Nascent → Inception	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×1.6 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0
23	Switzerland	Europe	10.5 Transitional → Foundational	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.3
24	Portugal	Europe	8.7 Foundational → Nascent	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.3 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 8.3
25	Czechia	Europe	10.0 Transitional → Foundational	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.1 S03	Energy Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0.5

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.