O37 · Failure outcome · Named · Information & Influence

Diplomatic isolation

The nation lacks dependable access to the diplomatic, security and development relationships needed to advance essential interests and obtain practical cooperation.

Why it matters

Isolation reduces influence, access to assistance and the government's options in difficult international decisions.

Signs it has been reached

Priority diplomatic consultations repeatedly remain unavailable
Security cooperation falls below agreed practical commitments
Essential development partnerships cease functioning

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
Alliances & Security Cooperation
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 165; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.2%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Cryptographic trust break; 106 of 165 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.6; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Cryptographic trust break

106

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

162

Weakest buffer

Nations

Quantum Technologies

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Energy Infrastructure

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Holy See 5.2%, Monaco 2.0%, Estonia 1.5%, Brunei 1.4%, Fiji 1.3%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Holy See	Europe	8.1 Foundational → Nascent	5.2% Likely	1.5%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severe	×1.7 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0
2	Monaco	Europe	4.2 Nascent → Inception	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme	×1.9 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0
3	Estonia	Europe	10.3 Transitional → Foundational	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail	×2.9 S04	Alliances & Security Cooperation	Energy Infrastructure 8.9
4	Brunei	Indo-Pacific	4.7 Nascent → Inception	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.3
6	Fiji	Indo-Pacific	6.0 Foundational → Inception	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.1 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0
5	Malta	Europe	6.8 Foundational → Nascent	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 2
7	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	5.2 Nascent → Inception	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 1.5
8	Ireland	Europe	11.8 Transitional → Foundational	1.3% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.8 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 6
9	North Macedonia	Europe	6.0 Foundational → Inception	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.8
10	Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	7.5 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.4 S09	Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7
13	Montenegro	Europe	6.0 Foundational → Inception	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.5
11	Cyprus	Europe	7.0 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 2
12	Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	6.7 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.4 S09	Alliances & Security Cooperation	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3
14	Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	11.0 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.7 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 4
16	Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	8.4 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Alliances & Security Cooperation	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7
15	Iceland	Europe	8.8 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.4 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 1.3
17	Lithuania	Europe	10.2 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.8 S04	Alliances & Security Cooperation	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
20	Kosovo	Europe	4.1 Nascent → Inception	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.1 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.3
19	Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	5.4 Nascent → Inception	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.5
18	Thailand	Indo-Pacific	10.8 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.5 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 3.3
21	Bulgaria	Europe	8.7 Foundational → Nascent	1.0% Possible	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.5 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 3.3
22	Latvia	Europe	9.2 Transitional → Nascent	1.0% Unlikely	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.6 S04	Alliances & Security Cooperation	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9
23	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	4.7 Nascent → Inception	1.0% Unlikely	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.3
25	Albania	Europe	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	1.0% Unlikely	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.3 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 0.3
24	Luxembourg	Europe	11.5 Transitional → Foundational	1.0% Unlikely	0.3%	Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.5 S09	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Quantum Technologies 3.5

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.