O50 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Trade & Investment

Sophisticated export strength

The nation sustains a broader range of sophisticated exports with dependable market access and a stronger position in international production networks.

Why it matters

Higher-value exports support income growth and reduce reliance on a narrow range of products or markets.

Signs it has been reached

Complex exports gain sustained international market share
Domestic value added rises within export production
Exporters maintain access across more viable markets

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Trade Policy & Market Access
Export Capability & Sophistication
Global Value Chain Position

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 52; of 197 · 9 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Great-power détente; 25 of 52 nations
Typical headroom: ×4.1; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Great-power détente

Outbreak defence succeeds

Clean power threshold

Market access opening

Automated discovery step

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

Binding capability

Nations

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Energy Technologies

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Energy Infrastructure

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 19%, United Kingdom 16%, Singapore 15%, Japan 14%, Germany 14%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	17.1 Advanced → Frontier	19% Likely	6.0%	Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Major	×0.8 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
2	United Kingdom	Europe	16.3 Advanced → Advanced	16% Likely	5.0%	Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Major	×0.8 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
3	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	17.5 Advanced → Frontier	15% Likely	4.8%	Great-power détente Major+Automated discovery step Major	×0.9 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14
4	Japan	Indo-Pacific	17.8 Advanced → Frontier	14% Likely	4.2%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.1 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16
5	Germany	Europe	17.8 Advanced → Frontier	14% Likely	4.2%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.3 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 16.2
6	France	Europe	17.0 Advanced → Frontier	12% Likely	3.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5 S17	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Health System Capability 16.7
7	Netherlands	Europe	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	12% Likely	3.6%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.2 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
8	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	15.4 Advanced → Advanced	8.7% Likely	2.7%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.1 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7
9	Belgium	Europe	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	8.1% Likely	2.5%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.4 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.3
10	United States	North America	17.9 Advanced → Frontier	8.1% Likely	2.4%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.1 S17	Export Capability & Sophistication · reaches Frontier	Export Capability & Sophistication 17
11	Switzerland	Europe	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	7.4% Likely	2.2%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.3 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5
12	China	China	17.5 Advanced → Frontier	7.4% Likely	2.2%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.3 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access · reaches Frontier	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
13	Canada	North America	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	5.9% Likely	1.8%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.1 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
14	Sweden	Europe	15.8 Advanced → Advanced	5.5% Likely	1.6%	Great-power détente Severe+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.5 S20	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
15	Ireland	Europe	14.7 Established → Advanced	5.1% Likely	1.5%	Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Severe	×1.3 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8
16	Finland	Europe	15.1 Advanced → Advanced	4.8% Possible	1.4%	Great-power détente Severe+Clean power threshold Severe	×1.7 S20	Trade Policy & Market Access	Resource Infrastructure 10
17	Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	14.5 Established → Advanced	4.8% Possible	1.4%	Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Severe	×1.2 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
18	Italy	Europe	15.4 Advanced → Advanced	3.6% Possible	1.1%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.9 S17	Trade Policy & Market Access	Artificial Intelligence 11.3
19	Austria	Europe	15.3 Advanced → Advanced	3.3% Possible	1.0%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.6 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Alliances & Security Cooperation 10
20	Denmark	Europe	15.2 Advanced → Advanced	2.9% Possible	0.9%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.6 S20	Trade Policy & Market Access	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
21	Israel	Gulf and Middle East	13.9 Established → Advanced	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.6 S17	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
22	Spain	Europe	14.7 Established → Advanced	2.3% Possible	0.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.8 S15	Trade Policy & Market Access	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
23	Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	12.7 Established → Established	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Market access opening Severe+Great-power détente Severe	×1.6 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8
24	Thailand	Indo-Pacific	13.2 Established → Established	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Market access opening Severe+Great-power détente Severe	×1.7 S13	Trade Policy & Market Access	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5
25	Australia	Indo-Pacific	14.6 Established → Advanced	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.8 S20	Trade Policy & Market Access	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.