O24 · Failure outcome · Named · Strategic Infrastructure

Failure of digital lifelines

Essential communications, digital payments and trusted electronic services can no longer operate reliably at national scale.

Why it matters

Digital discontinuity interrupts ordinary transactions, administration and the coordination of essential services.

Signs it has been reached

  • Essential networks repeatedly breach availability standards
  • Electronic payments remain inaccessible to substantial populations
  • Digital identities and signatures cannot be reliably verified

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure
  • Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
  • Financial Infrastructure

Held by all three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
115
of 197
Typical likelihood
under 0.1%
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Cryptographic trust break
81 of 115 nations
Typical headroom
×3.1
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Cryptographic trust break
Hybrid coercion
Regional war spillover
Breadbasket failure

81

28

3

3

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

112

3

Weakest buffer

Nations

Quantum Technologies

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Energy Infrastructure

Intelligence & Assessment

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

69

24

4

4

3

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

00.20.40.60.811.2Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.1Europe 42Europe mean: 0.6EstoniaMaltaChina 1China mean: 0.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.2NauruKiribatiSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.0Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.2Africa 53Africa mean: 0.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Trinidad & TobagoRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.5Kazakhstan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Estonia 1.2%, Malta 1.1%, Kazakhstan 1.0%, Cyprus 1.0%, Iceland 1.0%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.500.30.50.81Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)EstoniaMaltaKazakhstanCyprusGermanyJapanChinaUnited StatesIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1EstoniaEurope13.0 Established → Transitional1.2% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×2.9 S04Communications & Digital InfrastructureEnergy Infrastructure 8.9
2MaltaEurope9.7 Transitional → Foundational1.1% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 2
3KazakhstanRussia and Eurasia8.4 Foundational → Nascent1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Communications & Digital InfrastructureCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7
4CyprusEurope8.7 Foundational → Nascent1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 2
5IcelandEurope10.1 Transitional → Foundational1.0% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 1.3
6GeorgiaRussia and Eurasia7.6 Foundational → Nascent1.0% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Communications & Digital InfrastructureCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3
7LuxembourgEurope12.2 Established → Foundational0.9% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 3.5
8NorwayEurope14.7 Established → Transitional0.9% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×3.3 S04Communications & Digital InfrastructureEnergy Infrastructure 12
9LatviaEurope10.5 Transitional → Foundational0.9% Unlikely0.3%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×2.6 S04Communications & Digital InfrastructureCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9
11BulgariaEurope9.3 Transitional → Foundational0.9% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 3.3
10FinlandEurope15.8 Advanced → Established0.9% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×3.4 S04Communications & Digital InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
13ArmeniaRussia and Eurasia6.7 Foundational → Nascent0.9% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 1.5
12AzerbaijanRussia and Eurasia6.9 Foundational → Nascent0.9% Unlikely0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Communications & Digital InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 7
15HungaryEurope10.8 Transitional → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 6
14LithuaniaEurope11.5 Transitional → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×2.8 S04Communications & Digital InfrastructureCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
16IrelandEurope13.0 Established → Transitional0.8% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.8 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 6
17SloveniaEurope10.5 Transitional → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 3.8
18GreeceEurope10.7 Transitional → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 4.8
19UkraineRussia and Eurasia10.1 Transitional → Foundational0.8% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.9 S09Communications & Digital InfrastructureEnergy Infrastructure 11.9
20SerbiaEurope9.2 Transitional → Foundational0.7% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 2.8
21AustriaEurope13.4 Established → Transitional0.7% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3
22CzechiaEurope11.8 Transitional → Foundational0.7% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.0 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 6.3
23PhilippinesIndo-Pacific9.1 Transitional → Nascent0.7% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 2
24CroatiaEurope9.6 Transitional → Foundational0.7% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.6 S09Connectivity, Cyber & Trust TechnologiesQuantum Technologies 2.5
26PolandEurope12.8 Established → Transitional0.7% Unlikely0.2%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2 S09Communications & Digital InfrastructureEnergy Infrastructure 11.5

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.