Broad fall in critical technology
The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.
Why it matters
A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.
Met when
The mean score of these 10 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).
- Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
- Energy Technologies
- Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
- Artificial Intelligence
- Quantum Technologies
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- Sensing, Timing & Navigation
- Robotics & Autonomous Systems
- Biotechnology & Health Technologies
- Space Technologies
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.
- Nations with a route
- 64
- of 197
- Typical likelihood
- none
- median nation, over 10 years
- Leads most routes
- Cryptographic trust break
- 50 of 64 nations
- Typical headroom
- ×4.4
- times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario
What produces it
Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.
Lead scenario
Nations
Form of the route
Nations
Two scenarios together
64
Weakest buffer
Nations
Quantum Technologies
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
Biotechnology & Health Technologies
39
7
4
3
3
Likelihood, by region
One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.
- North America
- Europe
- China
- Indo-Pacific
- South Asia
- Gulf and Middle East
- Africa
- Latin America and Caribbean
- Russia and Eurasia
Most likely: Malaysia 0.6%, Belarus 0.5%, North Korea 0.4%, Thailand 0.4%, Vietnam 0.4%.
Does a strong starting point protect?
Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.
- North America
- Europe
- China
- Indo-Pacific
- South Asia
- Gulf and Middle East
- Africa
- Latin America and Caribbean
- Russia and Eurasia
All 197 nations
The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.
All 197 nations
197 of 197 nations
Rank | Nation | Region | Basket | Likelihood | 3 years | Most likely route | Headroom | Breaks first | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malaysia | Indo-Pacific | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely | 0.2% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Economic Leverage & Dependence 12 |
| 2 | Belarus | Russia and Eurasia | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.6 S01 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| 3 | North Korea | Indo-Pacific | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Extreme+Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.8 S01 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| 4 | Thailand | Indo-Pacific | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| 5 | Vietnam | Indo-Pacific | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 S01 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8 |
| 6 | Hungary | Europe | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| 7 | Ireland | Europe | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12.3 |
| 8 | Lithuania | Europe | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| 10 | Taiwan | Indo-Pacific | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 S01 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| 9 | Singapore | Indo-Pacific | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.8 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 |
| 11 | Czechia | Europe | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely | 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| 12 | Slovakia | Europe | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| 15 | Slovenia | Europe | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| 14 | Belgium | Europe | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| 13 | South Korea | Indo-Pacific | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.8 S01 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.2 |
| 16 | Denmark | Europe | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 10 |
| 17 | Switzerland | Europe | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| 18 | United Arab Emirates | Gulf and Middle East | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| 20 | New Zealand | Indo-Pacific | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| 21 | Estonia | Europe | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| 19 | Canada | North America | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 |
| 23 | Serbia | Europe | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| 24 | Bulgaria | Europe | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| 22 | Austria | Europe | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Major+Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 S09 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.3 |
| 25 | United Kingdom | Europe | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote | under 0.1% | Trade bloc rupture Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.8 S01 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Structural Transformation & Complexity 14.7 |
Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8
Neighbouring outcomes
- Broad rise in critical technologyProsperity outcome
- Loss of advanced technology baseFailure outcome
- Assured space servicesProsperity outcome
- Frontier AI and computeProsperity outcome
- Higher-value manufacturingProsperity outcome
- Collapse in energy securityFailure outcome
- Failure of digital lifelinesFailure outcome
- Reliable low-cost energyProsperity outcome
- Strategic awareness failureFailure outcome
- Stronger health and biotechnologyProsperity outcome
A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.