O48 · Failure outcome · Named · Trade & Investment

Rupture in trade and supply

The nation can no longer obtain and move essential traded goods reliably or maintain workable access to international production networks.

Why it matters

Unreliable external supply constrains production and leaves essential needs dependent on inaccessible goods.

Signs it has been reached

Critical imports remain below minimum national requirements
Freight delivery times exceed viable operating limits
Domestic producers lose essential supply-chain connections

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Trade Facilitation & Logistics
Global Value Chain Position
Economic Leverage & Dependence
Transport Infrastructure

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 178; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.8%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Regional war spillover; 134 of 178 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.0; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Regional war spillover

134

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

One scenario at Extreme

113

Weakest buffer

Nations

Maritime Power

Resource Infrastructure

Financial System Depth & Access

Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Liechtenstein 4.0%, Monaco 3.8%, San Marino 3.8%, Djibouti 3.7%, Armenia 3.4%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Liechtenstein	Europe	7.9 Foundational → Nascent	4.0% Possible	1.2%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
2	Monaco	Europe	6.1 Foundational → Inception	3.8% Possible	1.1%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 0.3
3	San Marino	Europe	4.4 Nascent → Inception	3.8% Possible	1.1%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
4	Djibouti	Africa	5.4 Nascent → Inception	3.7% Possible	1.1%	Regional war spillover Severe+Breadbasket failure Severe	×1.6 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 2
6	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	6.1 Foundational → Nascent	3.4% Possible	1.0%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.5 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0.3
5	Malta	Europe	11.1 Transitional → Foundational	3.4% Possible	1.0%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.6 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
8	Laos	Indo-Pacific	4.9 Nascent → Inception	3.3% Possible	1.0%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
7	Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	6.9 Foundational → Nascent	3.3% Possible	1.0%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 2.8
10	Kosovo	Europe	4.9 Nascent → Inception	3.2% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.5 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
9	North Macedonia	Europe	7.1 Foundational → Nascent	3.2% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.6 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
12	Maldives	South Asia	5.4 Nascent → Inception	3.2% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 0.8
11	Andorra	Europe	4.0 Nascent → Inception	3.2% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
13	Fiji	Indo-Pacific	5.9 Nascent → Inception	3.1% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.5 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 3
14	Samoa	Indo-Pacific	3.8 Nascent → Inception	3.1% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.5 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 1
15	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	3.1% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.6 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 1.3
16	Palau	Indo-Pacific	3.3 Nascent → Inception	3.1% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.6 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 0.5
17	Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	4.9 Nascent → Inception	3.0% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 3
19	Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	4.3 Nascent → Inception	3.0% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.4 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 0.5
18	Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	7.0 Foundational → Nascent	3.0% Possible	0.9%	Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.6 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
20	Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	5.8 Nascent → Inception	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.9 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Maritime Power 0
21	Iran	Gulf and Middle East	7.9 Foundational → Nascent	2.1% Possible	0.6%	Regional war spillover Severe+Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail	×1.8 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5
22	Cyprus	Europe	9.8 Transitional → Foundational	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.6 S03	Transport Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
23	Latvia	Europe	11.3 Transitional → Foundational	1.9% Possible	0.6%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.9 S03	Transport Infrastructure	Resource Infrastructure 4.8
24	Luxembourg	Europe	12.7 Established → Transitional	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.7 S03	Transport Infrastructure	Maritime Power 0
25	Lithuania	Europe	12.0 Established → Foundational	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×1.9 S03	Transport Infrastructure	Maritime Power 4.8

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.