O36 · Failure outcome · Named · Information & Influence

Breakdown of information trust

People can no longer reliably obtain and verify information needed to understand public decisions, assess official claims and act on essential guidance.

Why it matters

An unverifiable information environment weakens public accountability and the practical effectiveness of government guidance.

Signs it has been reached

  • Essential public claims lack accessible supporting evidence
  • Independent verification remains unavailable for consequential disputed claims
  • People cannot consistently identify reliable essential guidance

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication
  • Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
171
of 197
Typical likelihood
0.5%
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Legitimacy rupture
93 of 171 nations
Typical headroom
×2.3
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Legitimacy rupture
Cryptographic trust break
Hybrid coercion
AI labour shock
Trade bloc rupture
Breadbasket failure

93

55

12

7

2

2

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

167

4

Weakest buffer

Nations

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Quantum Technologies

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Political Institutions & Civic Participation

Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption

70

44

13

9

7

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

012345Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.2Europe 42Europe mean: 1.2Holy SeeMonacoChina 1China mean: 0.1Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 0.5South Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.6Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.8PalestineAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.3SudanDjiboutiLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.4HaitiRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 1.3
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Holy See 5.7%, Palestine 2.3%, Monaco 2.2%, Ukraine 2.1%, Uzbekistan 1.9%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5012345Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)Holy SeePalestineMonacoUkraineIndiaJapanGermanyChinaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1Holy SeeEurope7.4 Foundational → Nascent5.7% Likely1.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severe×1.7 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0
2PalestineGulf and Middle East4.6 Nascent → Inception2.3% Possible0.7%Hybrid coercion Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail×1.6 S05Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationPolitical Institutions & Civic Participation 4
3MonacoEurope5.9 Nascent → Inception2.2% Possible0.6%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×1.9 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0
4UkraineRussia and Eurasia11.0 Transitional → Foundational2.1% Possible0.6%Hybrid coercion Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail×2.7 S05Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationJustice System & Fundamental Rights 10.8
5UzbekistanRussia and Eurasia5.4 Nascent → Inception1.9% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Major+Legitimacy rupture Extreme×1.9 S05Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationPolitical Institutions & Civic Participation 4
6MontenegroEurope6.9 Foundational → Nascent1.8% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.5
7North MacedoniaEurope6.9 Foundational → Nascent1.8% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.8
9KosovoEurope5.4 Nascent → Inception1.8% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.1 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.3
8ArmeniaRussia and Eurasia6.9 Foundational → Nascent1.8% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 1.5
10GeorgiaRussia and Eurasia8.5 Foundational → Nascent1.7% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3
11EstoniaEurope12.2 Established → Transitional1.6% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×2.9 S04Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationEnergy Infrastructure 8.9
13KyrgyzstanRussia and Eurasia5.1 Nascent → Inception1.6% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Major+Legitimacy rupture Extreme×2.0 S05Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 4
12MaltaEurope8.6 Foundational → Nascent1.6% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 2
14MoldovaRussia and Eurasia7.4 Foundational → Nascent1.5% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 1
16FijiIndo-Pacific5.9 Nascent → Inception1.5% Possible0.5%Legitimacy rupture Severe+AI labour shock Severeplans fail×2.1 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationArtificial Intelligence 1
15SerbiaEurope9.1 Transitional → Foundational1.5% Possible0.5%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 2.8
17CyprusEurope8.2 Foundational → Nascent1.5% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 2
18AzerbaijanRussia and Eurasia6.3 Foundational → Inception1.5% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S05Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 7
19IcelandEurope10.2 Transitional → Foundational1.4% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 1.3
20AlbaniaEurope6.5 Foundational → Nascent1.4% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 0.3
21KazakhstanRussia and Eurasia7.5 Foundational → Nascent1.4% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7
22LuxembourgEurope10.6 Transitional → Foundational1.4% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 3.5
24LebanonGulf and Middle East6.4 Foundational → Nascent1.4% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Major+Legitimacy rupture Extreme×1.7 S05Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationPublic Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4
23GreeceEurope10.2 Transitional → Foundational1.4% Possible0.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 4.8
25BulgariaEurope8.6 Foundational → Nascent1.3% Possible0.3%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.5 S09Information Environment & Strategic CommunicationQuantum Technologies 3.3

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.