Stronger information environment
The public can quickly find trustworthy information and the nation's cultural and diaspora networks extend its influence.
Why it matters
It builds domestic coherence and a stronger external narrative.
Signs it has been reached
- Verified information reaches most citizens within an hour of an event
- Foreign and diaspora audiences engage with national content at scale
- Elections show high trust in official results
Met when
The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).
- Information Environment & Strategic Communication
- Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy
- Diaspora & Global Communities
Held by two of the three panel models.
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.
- Nations with a route
- 55
- of 197 · 4 reach the Frontier band
- Typical likelihood
- none
- median nation, over 10 years
- Leads most routes
- Outbreak defence succeeds
- 52 of 55 nations
- Typical headroom
- ×4.8
- times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario
What produces it
Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.
Lead scenario
Nations
Form of the route
Nations
Two scenarios together
55
Binding capability
Nations
Biotechnology & Health Technologies
Information Environment & Strategic Communication
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
Health System Capability
Justice System & Fundamental Rights
28
17
3
2
2
Likelihood, by region
One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.
- North America
- Europe
- China
- Indo-Pacific
- South Asia
- Gulf and Middle East
- Africa
- Latin America and Caribbean
- Russia and Eurasia
Most likely: South Korea 4.5%, Singapore 4.5%, Japan 4.4%, Germany 4.0%, Netherlands 3.9%.
Who is in a position to take it?
Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.
- North America
- Europe
- China
- Indo-Pacific
- South Asia
- Gulf and Middle East
- Africa
- Latin America and Caribbean
- Russia and Eurasia
All 197 nations
The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.
All 197 nations
197 of 197 nations
Rank | Nation | Region | Basket | Likelihood | 3 years | Most likely route | Headroom | Moves first | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Korea | Indo-Pacific | 16.0 Advanced → Advanced | 4.5% Possible | 1.4% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 |
| 2 | Singapore | Indo-Pacific | 13.3 Established → Established | 4.5% Possible | 1.3% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| 3 | Japan | Indo-Pacific | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 4.4% Possible | 1.3% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 |
| 4 | Germany | Europe | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 4.0% Possible | 1.2% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication · reaches Frontier | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| 5 | Netherlands | Europe | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 3.9% Possible | 1.1% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| 6 | France | Europe | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 3.8% Possible | 1.1% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication · reaches Frontier | Health System Capability 16.7 |
| 7 | Sweden | Europe | 13.4 Established → Established | 3.8% Possible | 1.1% | Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 |
| 8 | United Kingdom | Europe | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 2.3% Possible | 0.7% | Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication · reaches Frontier | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| 9 | Canada | North America | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible | 0.5% | Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| 10 | Taiwan | Indo-Pacific | 13.3 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible | 0.5% | Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| 11 | Switzerland | Europe | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 1.6% Possible | 0.5% | Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| 14 | Belgium | Europe | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 1.5% Possible | 0.4% | Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11 |
| 12 | Finland | Europe | 12.1 Established → Established | 1.5% Possible | 0.4% | Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| 13 | Spain | Europe | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 1.5% Possible | 0.4% | Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 |
| 16 | Denmark | Europe | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 1.5% Possible | 0.4% | Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 |
| 15 | Australia | Indo-Pacific | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 1.5% Possible | 0.4% | Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| 18 | Israel | Gulf and Middle East | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13.5 |
| 17 | China | China | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication · reaches Frontier | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 |
| 19 | Malaysia | Indo-Pacific | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| 20 | Ireland | Europe | 13.1 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.5 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| 21 | Norway | Europe | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.4 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| 22 | Italy | Europe | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.5 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| 24 | Austria | Europe | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 |
| 27 | Czechia | Europe | 10.4 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| 25 | Poland | Europe | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely | 0.2% | Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 S20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8
Neighbouring outcomes
- Broad fall in information and influenceFailure outcome
- Broad rise in information and influenceProsperity outcome
- Breakdown of information trustFailure outcome
- Diplomatic isolationFailure outcome
- Wider international influenceProsperity outcome
A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.