O11 · Failure outcome · Domain · Governance & Integrity

Broad fall in governance and integrity

The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.

Met when

The mean score of these 8 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Political Institutions & Civic Participation
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights
  • Internal Security & Order
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
185
of 197
Typical likelihood
1.3%
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Legitimacy rupture
89 of 185 nations
Typical headroom
×2.3
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Legitimacy rupture
Regional war spillover
Cryptographic trust break
Hybrid coercion
Core disaster
AI labour shock

89

36

32

13

6

4

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

172

13

Weakest buffer

Nations

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Quantum Technologies

Maritime Power

Resource Infrastructure

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

65

29

19

16

8

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0246Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.3Europe 42Europe mean: 2.0San MarinoMonacoChina 1China mean: 0.3Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.9NauruSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 1.2Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 1.4Africa 53Africa mean: 1.0SudanSomaliaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 1.0HaitiRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 1.9
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Nauru 7.3%, San Marino 5.5%, Monaco 5.0%, Tuvalu 4.5%, Marshall Islands 4.3%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.5150246Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)NauruSan MarinoMonacoTuvaluIndiaJapanGermanyChinaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1NauruIndo-Pacific4.4 Nascent → Inception7.3% Likely2.0%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severe×1.8 S08Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0
2San MarinoEurope10.8 Transitional → Foundational5.5% Likely1.7%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
3MonacoEurope10.6 Transitional → Foundational5.0% Likely1.5%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0
4TuvaluIndo-Pacific5.1 Nascent → Inception4.5% Possible1.3%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0
5Marshall IslandsIndo-Pacific4.9 Nascent → Inception4.3% Possible1.3%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0
6KiribatiIndo-Pacific4.8 Nascent → Inception4.3% Possible1.3%Regional war spillover Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severe×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.5
7DjiboutiAfrica4.0 Nascent → Inception4.1% Possible1.2%Legitimacy rupture Severe+Breadbasket failure Severe×1.7 S05Internal Security & OrderInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7
8AndorraEurope11.0 Transitional → Foundational3.5% Possible1.1%Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Extreme×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationIntelligence & Assessment 0.8
9PalestineGulf and Middle East4.9 Nascent → Inception3.4% Possible1.0%Regional war spillover Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail×1.6 S05Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationPolitical Institutions & Civic Participation 4
10LiechtensteinEurope12.7 Established → Transitional3.3% Possible0.9%Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
11Holy SeeEurope3.7 Nascent → Inception3.1% Possible0.9%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Extreme×1.8 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0
12LebanonGulf and Middle East5.3 Nascent → Inception3.0% Possible0.9%Regional war spillover Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severe×1.8 S05Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationPublic Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4
13KosovoEurope7.5 Foundational → Nascent2.9% Possible0.8%Regional war spillover Extreme+Hybrid coercion Major×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
14UkraineRussia and Eurasia11.1 Transitional → Foundational2.8% Possible0.8%Hybrid coercion Major+Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail×2.7 S05Internal Security & OrderJustice System & Fundamental Rights 10.8
15MontenegroEurope9.8 Transitional → Foundational2.8% Possible0.8%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.3 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0.5
16ArmeniaRussia and Eurasia9.1 Transitional → Foundational2.7% Possible0.8%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.1 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 1.5
17IranGulf and Middle East6.8 Foundational → Nascent2.7% Possible0.8%Legitimacy rupture Severe+Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail×1.9 S05Internal Security & OrderTransparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3
18North MacedoniaEurope9.9 Transitional → Foundational2.6% Possible0.8%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 0.8
19CyprusEurope11.8 Transitional → Foundational2.6% Possible0.8%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.2 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 2
20MaldivesSouth Asia7.4 Foundational → Nascent2.5% Possible0.7%Regional war spillover Extreme+Legitimacy rupture Major×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.8
21MaltaEurope12.3 Established → Foundational2.5% Possible0.7%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×2.2 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 3.3
23MicronesiaIndo-Pacific4.9 Nascent → Inception2.4% Possible0.7%Regional war spillover Extreme+Hybrid coercion Major×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.5
22AzerbaijanRussia and Eurasia6.9 Foundational → Nascent2.4% Possible0.7%Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×2.3 S04Internal Security & OrderInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 7
24LaosIndo-Pacific4.2 Nascent → Inception2.4% Possible0.7%Regional war spillover Extreme+Hybrid coercion Major×2.0 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
25TajikistanRussia and Eurasia5.0 Nascent → Inception2.3% Possible0.7%Regional war spillover Severe+Legitimacy rupture Severe×1.6 S05Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationTransparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.