O49 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Trade & Investment

Higher-value international business

The nation sustains more internationally competitive service businesses and productive cross-border investment while retaining greater choice over external economic relationships.

Why it matters

International business growth raises earnings and investment while widening national economic options.

Signs it has been reached

  • Higher-value service exports gain sustained international customers
  • Cross-border investment delivers verified domestic productive benefits
  • Firms diversify commercially viable international partnerships

Met when

The mean score of these 3 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Investment Attraction & Projection
  • Digital & Services Trade
  • Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
70
of 197 · 7 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Market access opening
44 of 70 nations
Typical headroom
×3.4
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Market access opening
Outbreak defence succeeds
Automated discovery step
Clean power threshold
Great-power détente

44

11

7

6

2

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

66

4

Binding capability

Nations

Energy Infrastructure

Technical & Vocational Skills

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Energy Technologies

17

11

7

6

6

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

02.557.51012.515Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 1.9United StatesEurope 42Europe mean: 2.1United KingdomChina 1China mean: 5.2Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.9South KoreaJapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.1Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.2BahrainAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Costa RicaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 17%, Japan 14%, United Kingdom 13%, Netherlands 11%, Germany 11%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.51517.5051015Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaJapanUnited KingdomNetherlandsGermanyChinaIndiaUnited States
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.1 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely5.3%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major×1.2 S13Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
2JapanIndo-Pacific16.0 Advanced → Advanced14% Likely4.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Investment Attraction & ProjectionArtificial Intelligence 15.7
3United KingdomEurope17.2 Advanced → Frontier13% Likely4.0%Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Severe×1.3 S13Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
4NetherlandsEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
5GermanyEurope16.9 Advanced → Frontier11% Likely3.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
6FranceEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier9.4% Likely2.9%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierHealth System Capability 16.7
7TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.7 Established → Advanced8.7% Likely2.7%Market access opening Severe+Clean power threshold Major×1.5 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionTrade Policy & Market Access 13.5
8SingaporeIndo-Pacific18.1 Frontier → Frontier7.5% Likely2.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S13Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
9BelgiumEurope14.7 Established → Advanced6.6% Likely2.0%Market access opening Extreme×1.5 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionEnergy Infrastructure 13.5
10SwedenEurope16.1 Advanced → Advanced6.6% Likely2.0%Market access opening Extreme×1.5 S20Investment Attraction & ProjectionTransport Infrastructure 15.3
11ChinaChina15.7 Advanced → Advanced5.2% Likely1.6%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Investment Attraction & ProjectionRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
12SwitzerlandEurope16.4 Advanced → Frontier5.2% Likely1.6%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S12Investment Attraction & Projection · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
13MalaysiaIndo-Pacific13.3 Established → Established4.8% Possible1.4%Market access opening Severe+Great-power détente Major×1.4 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionEnergy Infrastructure 11
14FinlandEurope15.3 Advanced → Advanced4.4% Possible1.3%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Investment Attraction & ProjectionInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
15CanadaNorth America15.8 Advanced → Advanced3.8% Possible1.1%Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.6 S17Investment Attraction & ProjectionSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
16IrelandEurope15.5 Advanced → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Market access opening Severe+Great-power détente Severe×1.7 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionEnergy Infrastructure 9.8
17VietnamIndo-Pacific11.1 Transitional → Established3.1% Possible0.9%Market access opening Extreme×1.5 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9.7
18AustriaEurope14.6 Established → Advanced3.0% Possible0.9%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Extreme×2.0 S17Investment Attraction & ProjectionArtificial Intelligence 10
19DenmarkEurope15.4 Advanced → Advanced2.6% Possible0.8%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S20Investment Attraction & ProjectionInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
20ItalyEurope13.9 Established → Advanced2.6% Possible0.8%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.9 S17Investment Attraction & ProjectionArtificial Intelligence 11.3
21IsraelGulf and Middle East15.3 Advanced → Advanced2.4% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S17Investment Attraction & ProjectionSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
22SpainEurope14.5 Established → Advanced2.3% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8 S15Investment Attraction & ProjectionBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
23CzechiaEurope12.6 Established → Established2.1% Possible0.6%Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Extreme×1.9 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionEnergy Technologies 8
24AustraliaIndo-Pacific15.6 Advanced → Advanced1.8% Possible0.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8 S12Investment Attraction & ProjectionInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
25PolandEurope12.9 Established → Established1.4% Possible0.4%Market access opening Major+Clean power threshold Extreme×2.1 S15Investment Attraction & ProjectionEnergy Technologies 9.4

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.