O17 · Failure outcome · Domain · Trade & Investment

Broad fall in trade and investment

The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.

Met when

The mean score of these 7 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 172; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.4%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Regional war spillover; 95 of 172 nations
Typical headroom: ×2.6; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Regional war spillover

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

155

Weakest buffer

Nations

Maritime Power

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Resource Infrastructure

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Advanced Manufacturing

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Liechtenstein 3.6%, Cambodia 2.6%, Monaco 2.5%, San Marino 2.3%, Laos 2.0%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Liechtenstein	Europe	9.6 Transitional → Foundational	3.6% Possible	1.1%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.9 S01	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5
2	Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	6.5 Foundational → Nascent	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.9 S01	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.4
3	Monaco	Europe	6.5 Foundational → Nascent	2.5% Possible	0.8%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×1.9 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 0.3
4	San Marino	Europe	4.7 Nascent → Inception	2.3% Possible	0.7%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.8 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
5	Laos	Indo-Pacific	4.5 Nascent → Inception	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severe	×1.9 S01	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8
6	Djibouti	Africa	4.2 Nascent → Inception	2.0% Possible	0.6%	Regional war spillover Severe+Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail	×2.1 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 2
7	Malta	Europe	11.3 Transitional → Foundational	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
8	Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	5.7 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×1.8 S01	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Advanced Manufacturing 4.8
9	Cyprus	Europe	10.2 Transitional → Foundational	1.7% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 3.3
10	North Macedonia	Europe	7.3 Foundational → Nascent	1.6% Possible	0.5%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.1 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
12	Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	1.5% Possible	0.5%	Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S01	Trade Policy & Market Access	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
11	Ireland	Europe	14.5 Established → Transitional	1.5% Possible	0.5%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.6 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Maritime Power 4
13	Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	8.7 Foundational → Nascent	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.3 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 5.8
14	Slovenia	Europe	11.9 Transitional → Foundational	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 3
15	Luxembourg	Europe	13.4 Established → Transitional	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.3 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
16	Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	6.4 Foundational → Nascent	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Regional war spillover Extreme	×2.1 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Maritime Power 0.3
17	Maldives	South Asia	5.2 Nascent → Inception	1.4% Possible	0.4%	Global funding seizure Major+Regional war spillover Extreme	×1.9 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Resource Infrastructure 0.8
18	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	15.2 Advanced → Established	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×3.1 S01	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5
20	Andorra	Europe	4.5 Nascent → Inception	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×1.9 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
19	Hungary	Europe	12.2 Established → Foundational	1.2% Possible	0.4%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.8 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Maritime Power 0.5
21	Kosovo	Europe	4.8 Nascent → Inception	1.2% Possible	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.0 S03	Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Maritime Power 0
22	Fiji	Indo-Pacific	5.8 Nascent → Inception	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Major+Regional war spillover Extreme	×2.1 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Resource Infrastructure 3
23	Montenegro	Europe	6.8 Foundational → Nascent	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.2 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Maritime Power 2.8
24	Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	11.9 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Majorplans fail	×2.3 S01	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.8
25	Slovakia	Europe	11.4 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Trade bloc rupture Severe+Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.6 S03	Economic Leverage & Dependence	Maritime Power 0.5

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.