O32 · Failure outcome · Named · Human Capital

Education pipeline failure

Successive stages of education no longer equip enough young people with the knowledge and skills required for adult life and work.

Why it matters

Persistent learning deficits reduce future earnings, productivity and the supply of capable professionals.

Signs it has been reached

Developmental readiness falls across successive cohorts
Foundational learning attainment declines persistently
Qualification completion and demonstrated competence both deteriorate

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Early Childhood Development
Foundational Education
Advanced Education
Technical & Vocational Skills

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 189; of 197
Typical likelihood: under 0.1%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Severe pandemic; 110 of 189 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.2; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

110

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

188

Weakest buffer

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Artificial Intelligence

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Lifelong Learning & Reskilling

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: North Korea 1.5%, Djibouti 0.6%, Andorra 0.5%, Monaco 0.5%, Palestine 0.4%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	North Korea	Indo-Pacific	6.8 Foundational → Nascent	1.5% Possible	0.4%	AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×1.8 S08	Advanced Education	Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.5
2	Djibouti	Africa	4.2 Nascent → Inception	0.6% Unlikely	0.2%	Breadbasket failure Severe+Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×2.2 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
3	Andorra	Europe	10.7 Transitional → Foundational	0.5% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.4 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2
4	Monaco	Europe	10.1 Transitional → Foundational	0.5% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.4 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2
5	Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	7.3 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail	×2.1 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8
7	San Marino	Europe	10.4 Transitional → Foundational	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0
6	Malta	Europe	12.9 Established → Transitional	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4
8	Cyprus	Europe	12.5 Established → Transitional	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.9 S08	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8
9	Sudan	Africa	3.9 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Legitimacy rupture Major+Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail	×1.9 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2
10	Comoros	Africa	4.1 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.2 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8
13	Niger	Africa	3.6 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.0 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6
11	Togo	Africa	5.5 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Severe	×2.2 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
12	Mauritania	Africa	4.4 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Severe	×2.3 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
14	Luxembourg	Europe	14.4 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.2 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5
15	Benin	Africa	5.3 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6
16	Madagascar	Africa	5.0 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Severe+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.6 S06	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2
17	Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	7.2 Foundational → Nascent	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Severe+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4
18	Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	12.0 Transitional → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Severe+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.8 S06	Foundational Education	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5
22	Maldives	South Asia	8.4 Foundational → Nascent	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×2.4 S08	Advanced Education	Artificial Intelligence 1.3
20	Iran	Gulf and Middle East	10.3 Transitional → Foundational	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Legitimacy rupture Major+Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6
21	Algeria	Africa	9.8 Transitional → Foundational	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.8 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6
19	Hungary	Europe	13.5 Established → Transitional	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.2 S10	Foundational Education	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3
23	Kenya	Africa	8.0 Foundational → Nascent	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.5 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6
25	Senegal	Africa	7.1 Foundational → Nascent	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.6 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6
24	Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	12.1 Established → Transitional	0.2% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.