O27 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Strategic Infrastructure

Secure food and water supply

Farming, storage and water systems produce and deliver more with less, so that food and clean water are reliably available and affordable through bad seasons.

Why it matters

Food and water security frees income, steadies politics and removes a recurring source of crisis.

Signs it has been reached

  • Staple yields rise while water use for each tonne falls
  • Losses after harvest fall sharply
  • Safe water and sanitation reach nearly all households

Met when

The mean score of these 2 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Agriculture & Food Infrastructure
  • Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure

Held by one of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
62
of 197 · 4 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Outbreak defence succeeds
26 of 62 nations
Typical headroom
×4.2
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds
Water-efficient food leap
Automated discovery step
Clean power threshold
Middle East settlement
Market access opening

26

21

9

3

2

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

60

2

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Artificial Intelligence

Energy Technologies

29

9

6

5

3

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0246810Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 3.4Europe 42Europe mean: 1.5GermanyChina 1China mean: 5.5Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.3South KoreaJapanSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.3Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.4Africa 53Africa mean: 0.1UgandaEthiopiaTanzaniaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 11%, Japan 11%, Germany 10%, Singapore 8.3%, France 8.2%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.5150246810Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)South KoreaJapanGermanySingaporeChinaUnited StatesIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1South KoreaIndo-Pacific16.3 Advanced → Advanced11% Likely3.4%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.3 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureArtificial Intelligence 16
2JapanIndo-Pacific16.9 Advanced → Frontier11% Likely3.3%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
3GermanyEurope16.1 Advanced → Advanced10% Likely3.1%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.4 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureArtificial Intelligence 15.7
4SingaporeIndo-Pacific14.6 Established → Advanced8.3% Likely2.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
5FranceEurope16.2 Advanced → Advanced8.2% Likely2.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureHealth System Capability 16.7
6NetherlandsEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier7.6% Likely2.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
7United KingdomEurope14.7 Established → Advanced7.3% Likely2.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureHealth System Capability 16.3
8TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.7 Established → Advanced6.7% Likely2.0%Water-efficient food leap Extreme×1.6 S16Agriculture & Food InfrastructureBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
9ChinaChina16.3 Advanced → Advanced5.5% Likely1.7%Water-efficient food leap Major+Automated discovery step Severe×1.5 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
10United StatesNorth America17.2 Advanced → Frontier4.5% Possible1.3%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Major×1.1 S17Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · reaches FrontierRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7
11SwedenEurope14.2 Established → Advanced4.0% Possible1.2%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
12BelgiumEurope14.1 Established → Advanced3.8% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
13SwitzerlandEurope13.7 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
14FinlandEurope14.3 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible1.0%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
15South AfricaAfrica12.7 Established → Established3.1% Possible0.9%Water-efficient food leap Extreme×1.5 S16Agriculture & Food InfrastructureTechnology Adoption & Diffusion 10.5
16IsraelGulf and Middle East15.4 Advanced → Advanced2.8% Possible0.9%Water-efficient food leap Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.6 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
17ItalyEurope14.7 Established → Advanced2.5% Possible0.8%Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe×1.9 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureArtificial Intelligence 11.3
18CanadaNorth America15.3 Advanced → Advanced2.2% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
19SpainEurope15.9 Advanced → Advanced2.2% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8 S15Agriculture & Food InfrastructureBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
20DenmarkEurope15.2 Advanced → Advanced1.9% Possible0.6%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
21AustriaEurope13.3 Established → Established1.8% Possible0.5%Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Extreme×2.0 S17Agriculture & Food InfrastructureArtificial Intelligence 10
22IndiaSouth Asia12.0 Established → Established1.7% Possible0.5%Clean power threshold Severe+Water-efficient food leap Severe×1.6 S16Agriculture & Food InfrastructureTechnical & Vocational Skills 9
24TürkiyeGulf and Middle East14.0 Established → Advanced1.1% Possible0.3%Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme×1.8 S14Agriculture & Food InfrastructureJustice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3
23AustraliaIndo-Pacific16.6 Advanced → Frontier1.1% Possible0.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8 S20Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
25IrelandEurope12.8 Established → Established1.1% Possible0.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.0 S20Agriculture & Food InfrastructureBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.