O34 · Prosperity outcome · Named · Human Capital

Adaptable skilled workforce

Workers can acquire recognised practical and digital skills throughout their careers and secure sustained employment that makes effective use of those skills.

Why it matters

An adaptable workforce supports higher earnings and expansion into more demanding economic activities.

Signs it has been reached

  • Recognised skills attainment rises among working-age adults
  • Training completion leads to sustained skilled employment
  • Persistent occupational skill shortages decline

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

  • Technical & Vocational Skills
  • Digital & AI Competence
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
  • Labour & Employment

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
57
of 197 · 7 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood
none
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Outbreak defence succeeds
31 of 57 nations
Typical headroom
×4.3
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds
Chronic disease advance
Market access opening
Water-efficient food leap
Automated discovery step
Public service leap

31

10

6

5

4

1

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

55

2

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Health System Capability

Artificial Intelligence

25

12

6

3

2

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0246810Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 6.0Europe 42Europe mean: 1.4United KingdomChina 1China mean: 3.6Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 1.1South KoreaJapanPhilippinesSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 0.1Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 0.2IranAfrica 53Africa mean: 0.0AlgeriaLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 0.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 0.0
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: United Kingdom 11%, South Korea 9.1%, Japan 8.1%, Netherlands 7.6%, United States 7.4%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.5150246810Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)United KingdomSouth KoreaJapanNetherlandsUnited StatesGermanyChinaIndia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Moves first
Lever
1United KingdomEurope15.3 Advanced → Advanced11% Likely3.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsHealth System Capability 16.3
2South KoreaIndo-Pacific15.9 Advanced → Advanced9.1% Likely2.8%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
3JapanIndo-Pacific15.6 Advanced → Advanced8.1% Likely2.4%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
4NetherlandsEurope16.5 Advanced → Frontier7.6% Likely2.3%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Technical & Vocational Skills · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
5United StatesNorth America15.2 Advanced → Advanced7.4% Likely2.2%Automated discovery step Major+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.1 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsHealth System Capability 15.7
6SingaporeIndo-Pacific17.1 Advanced → Frontier7.4% Likely2.2%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4 S20Technical & Vocational Skills · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
7FranceEurope15.3 Advanced → Advanced7.3% Likely2.1%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsHealth System Capability 16.7
8GermanyEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier5.6% Likely1.6%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.4 S17Digital & AI Competence · reaches FrontierArtificial Intelligence 15.7
9TaiwanIndo-Pacific14.4 Established → Advanced4.7% Possible1.4%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
10CanadaNorth America15.6 Advanced → Advanced4.5% Possible1.3%Chronic disease advance Extreme×1.6 S19Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8
11SwedenEurope16.7 Advanced → Frontier4.0% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5 S20Technical & Vocational Skills · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 14
12BelgiumEurope14.6 Established → Advanced4.0% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Technical & Vocational SkillsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 11
13ChinaChina12.7 Established → Established3.6% Possible1.1%Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsRegulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
14FinlandEurope16.8 Advanced → Frontier3.3% Possible1.0%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Technical & Vocational Skills · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
15IsraelGulf and Middle East14.0 Established → Advanced3.1% Possible0.9%Automated discovery step Severe+Chronic disease advance Severe×1.6 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsSemiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
16SpainEurope13.4 Established → Established2.6% Possible0.8%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S20Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
17AustraliaIndo-Pacific15.7 Advanced → Advanced2.4% Possible0.7%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S19Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2
18ItalyEurope12.0 Established → Established2.4% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.9 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsArtificial Intelligence 11.3
19SwitzerlandEurope17.1 Advanced → Frontier2.3% Possible0.7%Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.7 S20Digital & AI Competence · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
20DenmarkEurope17.3 Advanced → Frontier2.0% Possible0.6%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6 S20Technical & Vocational Skills · reaches FrontierInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 12
21NorwayEurope16.4 Advanced → Advanced1.9% Possible0.5%Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8 S20Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 12
22AustriaEurope16.1 Advanced → Advanced1.7% Possible0.5%Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.0 S17Technical & Vocational SkillsInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3
23IrelandEurope14.5 Established → Advanced1.2% Possible0.3%Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.0 S20Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 11
24MalaysiaIndo-Pacific11.6 Transitional → Established1.1% Possible0.3%Market access opening Extreme+Public service leap Major×1.9 S12Technical & Vocational SkillsEnergy Infrastructure 11
25New ZealandIndo-Pacific14.9 Established → Advanced0.9% Unlikely0.3%Chronic disease advance Extreme+Outbreak defence succeeds Major×2.2 S19Technical & Vocational SkillsBiotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.