O40 · Failure outcome · Named · Governance & Integrity

Breakdown of state function

Public authorities can no longer maintain binding decisions, basic administration, public order and coordinated crisis management across substantial parts of the nation.

Why it matters

Ineffective public authority leaves the government unable to protect people or fulfil basic obligations.

Signs it has been reached

  • Binding public decisions routinely go unenforced
  • Essential administrative services cease functioning across multiple regions
  • Emergency coordination repeatedly fails across public authorities

Met when

The mean score of these 4 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Internal Security & Order
  • Political Institutions & Civic Participation
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management

Held by two of the three panel models.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route
188
of 197
Typical likelihood
2.5%
median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes
Legitimacy rupture
80 of 188 nations
Typical headroom
×2.0
times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Legitimacy rupture
Regional war spillover
Hybrid coercion
Core disaster
Cryptographic trust break
Breadbasket failure

80

50

37

7

5

5

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

One scenario, with plans failing

179

5

4

Weakest buffer

Nations

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Resource Infrastructure

Maritime Power

Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations

Political Institutions & Civic Participation

63

26

23

20

8

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

0246810Likelihood over 10 years, per centNorth America 2North America mean: 0.7Europe 42Europe mean: 3.9China 1China mean: 0.5Indo-Pacific 30Indo-Pacific mean: 3.6NauruKiribatiSouth Asia 8South Asia mean: 2.2Gulf and Middle East 16Gulf and Middle East mean: 2.8Africa 53Africa mean: 2.1SudanSomaliaSouth SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Latin America and Caribbean mean: 2.0Russia and Eurasia 12Russia and Eurasia mean: 4.3Georgia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Nauru 11%, Georgia 8.8%, Kiribati 8.3%, Palestine 7.8%, San Marino 7.8%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

02.557.51012.5150246810Basket score today (0 to 20)Likelihood (per cent)NauruGeorgiaKiribatiPalestineJapanIndiaGermanyUnited StatesChina
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

All 197 nations

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Basket
Likelihood
3 years
Most likely route
Headroom
Breaks first
Lever
1NauruIndo-Pacific5.1 Nascent → Inception11% Likely3.4%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Major×1.5 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0.8
2GeorgiaRussia and Eurasia10.8 Transitional → Foundational8.8% Likely2.7%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.8 S04Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.3
3KiribatiIndo-Pacific5.6 Nascent → Inception8.3% Likely2.5%Regional war spillover Extreme×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.5
4PalestineGulf and Middle East5.0 Nascent → Inception7.8% Likely2.3%Regional war spillover Major+Legitimacy rupture Severe×1.5 S05Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationPolitical Institutions & Civic Participation 4
5San MarinoEurope11.6 Transitional → Foundational7.8% Likely2.4%Regional war spillover Extreme×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
6MonacoEurope11.6 Transitional → Foundational7.7% Likely2.4%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.3
7CyprusEurope12.3 Established → Transitional7.0% Likely2.1%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 3.3
8MaltaEurope13.1 Established → Transitional6.9% Likely2.1%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 3.3
9TuvaluIndo-Pacific5.9 Nascent → Inception6.7% Likely2.0%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail×1.7 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.3
10DjiboutiAfrica4.8 Nascent → Inception6.5% Likely2.0%Legitimacy rupture Severe+AI labour shock Majorplans fail×1.6 S05Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationInformation Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7
11LebanonGulf and Middle East5.8 Nascent → Inception6.1% Likely1.8%Regional war spillover Extreme×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 3
12MontenegroEurope10.1 Transitional → Foundational6.0% Likely1.8%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 2.8
13Marshall IslandsIndo-Pacific5.5 Nascent → Inception5.9% Likely1.8%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.5
14UkraineRussia and Eurasia11.5 Transitional → Foundational5.9% Likely1.8%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.4 S04Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 3.5
15KazakhstanRussia and Eurasia9.4 Transitional → Foundational5.9% Likely1.8%Hybrid coercion Major+Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×1.8 S04Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationQuantum Technologies 1.5
16AndorraEurope11.9 Transitional → Foundational5.8% Likely1.8%Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×1.7 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationIntelligence & Assessment 0.8
17ArmeniaRussia and Eurasia9.4 Transitional → Foundational5.7% Likely1.7%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.8 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0.3
18LatviaEurope13.5 Established → Transitional5.6% Likely1.7%Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×2.0 S04Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9
19MicronesiaIndo-Pacific5.5 Nascent → Inception5.6% Likely1.6%Regional war spillover Extreme×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationResource Infrastructure 0.5
20LuxembourgEurope14.8 Established → Transitional5.4% Likely1.7%Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×1.9 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6
21North MacedoniaEurope10.3 Transitional → Foundational5.2% Likely1.6%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.8 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
22LithuaniaEurope14.0 Established → Transitional5.2% Likely1.6%Regional war spillover Major+Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×2.1 S04Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
23KosovoEurope7.8 Foundational → Nascent4.9% Possible1.5%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.7 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0
24IcelandEurope15.2 Advanced → Established4.7% Possible1.4%Hybrid coercion Severe+Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×2.1 S04Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationCyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4
25LiechtensteinEurope12.9 Established → Transitional4.5% Possible1.3%Regional war spillover Severe+Hybrid coercion Severe×1.6 S03Government Effectiveness & Public AdministrationMaritime Power 0

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.