Food and water failure
Food supplies and safe water services no longer reliably meet basic population needs across substantial parts of the nation.
Why it matters
Failure of basic provisioning threatens life, public health and social order.
Signs it has been reached
- Staple food availability falls below minimum national requirements
- Unsafe drinking water becomes widespread
- Sanitation services persistently fail minimum operating standards
Met when
The mean score of these 2 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).
- Agriculture & Food Infrastructure
- Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure
Held by two of the three panel models.
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.
- Nations with a route
- 187
- of 197
- Typical likelihood
- 0.3%
- median nation, over 10 years
- Leads most routes
- Breadbasket failure
- 78 of 187 nations
- Typical headroom
- ×2.7
- times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario
What produces it
Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.
Lead scenario
Nations
Form of the route
Nations
Two scenarios together
One scenario, with plans failing
One scenario at Extreme
157
17
13
Weakest buffer
Nations
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
Financial System Depth & Access
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations
Maritime Power
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
63
31
17
12
11
Likelihood, by region
One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.
- North America
- Europe
- China
- Indo-Pacific
- South Asia
- Gulf and Middle East
- Africa
- Latin America and Caribbean
- Russia and Eurasia
Most likely: Djibouti 4.1%, Sudan 3.8%, Iran 3.2%, Palestine 3.1%, Madagascar 3.0%.
Does a strong starting point protect?
Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.
- North America
- Europe
- China
- Indo-Pacific
- South Asia
- Gulf and Middle East
- Africa
- Latin America and Caribbean
- Russia and Eurasia
All 197 nations
The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.
All 197 nations
197 of 197 nations
Rank | Nation | Region | Basket | Likelihood | 3 years | Most likely route | Headroom | Breaks first | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Djibouti | Africa | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 4.1% Possible | 1.2% | Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Major | ×1.4 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| 2 | Sudan | Africa | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 3.8% Possible | 1.1% | Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Major | ×1.2 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| 3 | Iran | Gulf and Middle East | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 3.2% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.6 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| 4 | Palestine | Gulf and Middle East | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.3 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| 5 | Madagascar | Africa | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.6 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| 7 | Afghanistan | South Asia | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| 6 | Kenya | Africa | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.6 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| 15 | Yemen | Gulf and Middle East | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.2 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 |
| 12 | Niger | Africa | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.3 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| 8 | Benin | Africa | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| 9 | Togo | Africa | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| 13 | Comoros | Africa | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| 14 | Syria | Gulf and Middle East | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| 11 | Mauritania | Africa | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| 10 | Sierra Leone | Africa | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible | 0.9% | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.5 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| 16 | Kiribati | Indo-Pacific | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible | 0.6% | Regional war spillover Severe+Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.7 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.5 |
| 17 | Algeria | Africa | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.9% Possible | 0.6% | Breadbasket failure Major+Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×1.7 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| 18 | Argentina | Latin America and Caribbean | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 1.7% Possible | 0.5% | Breadbasket failure Major+Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| 19 | Eritrea | Africa | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Severe | ×1.6 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| 20 | Zimbabwe | Africa | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.6 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| 21 | Ethiopia | Africa | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.8 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| 24 | Equatorial Guinea | Africa | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3.3 |
| 23 | São Tomé & Príncipe | Africa | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.4 |
| 22 | Cuba | Latin America and Caribbean | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Severe+Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.8 S06 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| 25 | Congo | Africa | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible | 0.4% | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 S06 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8
Neighbouring outcomes
- Broad fall in strategic infrastructureFailure outcome
- Broad rise in strategic infrastructureProsperity outcome
- Collapse in energy securityFailure outcome
- Failure of digital lifelinesFailure outcome
- Reliable low-cost energyProsperity outcome
- Secure food and water supplyProsperity outcome
A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.