O07 · Failure outcome · Domain · Human Capital

Broad fall in human capital

The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.

Met when

The mean score of these 9 capability groups falls a full band (3 points).

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 186; of 197
Typical likelihood: 0.1%; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Severe pandemic; 107 of 186 nations
Typical headroom: ×3.0; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

107

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario, with plans failing

184

Weakest buffer

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Artificial Intelligence

Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Lifelong Learning & Reskilling

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: Monaco 1.1%, Djibouti 1.0%, North Korea 0.6%, Taiwan 0.5%, Andorra 0.5%.

Does a strong starting point protect?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 3 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Breaks first	Lever
1	Monaco	Europe	10.0 Transitional → Foundational	1.1% Possible	0.3%	AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S10	Advanced Education	Artificial Intelligence 1.7
2	Djibouti	Africa	3.6 Nascent → Inception	1.0% Possible	0.3%	Breadbasket failure Severe+Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×2.2 S06	Population Health	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
3	North Korea	Indo-Pacific	5.3 Nascent → Inception	0.6% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+AI labour shock Extreme	×1.7 S08	Advanced Education	Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.5
4	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	15.4 Advanced → Established	0.5% Unlikely	0.2%	AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×3.6 S08	Advanced Education	Artificial Intelligence 12.3
5	Andorra	Europe	9.9 Transitional → Foundational	0.5% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.3 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2
6	Montenegro	Europe	9.3 Transitional → Foundational	0.5% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S08	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2
7	Algeria	Africa	8.7 Foundational → Nascent	0.5% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×2.8 S06	Population Health	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6
8	Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	6.4 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8
9	Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	6.1 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S10	Population Health	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4
10	Cyprus	Europe	11.9 Transitional → Foundational	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.7 S08	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8
12	Maldives	South Asia	7.6 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Global funding seizure Major+AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S08	Advanced Education	Artificial Intelligence 1.3
11	Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	10.8 Transitional → Foundational	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.8 S08	Population Health	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.5
14	San Marino	Europe	9.6 Transitional → Foundational	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.0 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0
13	Malta	Europe	12.4 Established → Foundational	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4
15	Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	6.5 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.4 S10	Population Health	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8
18	Latvia	Europe	12.4 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.0 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6
16	Hungary	Europe	12.8 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.0 S10	Foundational Education	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3
17	Slovakia	Europe	12.2 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.1 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6
19	Greece	Europe	12.0 Transitional → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Global funding seizure Major+AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×3.0 S10	Advanced Education	Artificial Intelligence 6.3
23	Libya	Africa	4.9 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.2 S10	Population Health	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4
22	Mauritania	Africa	3.9 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Severe	×2.4 S06	Early Childhood Development	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
20	Slovenia	Europe	13.5 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely	0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.1 S10	Foundational Education	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8
21	Iceland	Europe	14.5 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Regional war spillover Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.2 S10	Foundational Education	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6
26	Togo	Africa	4.9 Nascent → Inception	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Extreme+Severe pandemic Severe	×2.2 S06	Population Health	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2
25	Seychelles	Africa	8.5 Foundational → Nascent	0.3% Unlikely	under 0.1%	Breadbasket failure Major+Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.5 S10	Population Health	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.