O16 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Production & Innovation

Broad rise in production and innovation

The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 7 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 52; of 197 · 6 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Clean power threshold; 26 of 52 nations
Typical headroom: ×4.7; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Clean power threshold

Outbreak defence succeeds

Automated discovery step

Great-power détente

Market access opening

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

One scenario at Extreme

Binding capability

Nations

Energy Technologies

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Semiconductors & Advanced Computing

Artificial Intelligence

Resource Infrastructure

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 19%, Germany 16%, Singapore 12%, United Kingdom 12%, Japan 11%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	19% Likely	6.0%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Major	×1.2 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches Frontier	Artificial Intelligence 16
2	Germany	Europe	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	16% Likely	5.0%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Major	×1.2 S15	Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches Frontier	Resource Infrastructure 13.5
3	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	16.2 Advanced → Advanced	12% Likely	3.8%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
4	United Kingdom	Europe	15.9 Advanced → Advanced	12% Likely	3.5%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation	Health System Capability 16.3
5	Japan	Indo-Pacific	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	11% Likely	3.4%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.2 S17	Industrial & Sectoral Base · reaches Frontier	Artificial Intelligence 15.7
6	Netherlands	Europe	16.4 Advanced → Frontier	10% Likely	3.2%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.3 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
7	France	Europe	16.0 Advanced → Advanced	10% Likely	3.1%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.3 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8
8	Sweden	Europe	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	10% Likely	3.1%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.4 S15	Innovation & Commercialisation · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
9	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	15.5 Advanced → Advanced	8.6% Likely	2.6%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.3 S15	Innovation & Commercialisation	Artificial Intelligence 12.3
10	Italy	Europe	13.5 Established → Established	6.9% Likely	2.1%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.5 S15	Innovation & Commercialisation	Artificial Intelligence 11.3
11	China	China	15.5 Advanced → Advanced	6.7% Likely	2.0%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.3 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
12	Finland	Europe	15.5 Advanced → Advanced	5.9% Likely	1.8%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.4 S15	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Resource Infrastructure 10
13	Spain	Europe	13.7 Established → Advanced	5.5% Likely	1.7%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.4 S15	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Energy Technologies 12
14	Switzerland	Europe	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	5.3% Likely	1.6%	Clean power threshold Major+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.5 S17	Industrial & Sectoral Base · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2
15	Canada	North America	15.3 Advanced → Advanced	4.8% Possible	1.4%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.4 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2
16	Belgium	Europe	14.8 Established → Advanced	3.8% Possible	1.1%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.6 S15	Innovation & Commercialisation	Resource Infrastructure 9.3
17	Israel	Gulf and Middle East	14.9 Established → Advanced	3.3% Possible	1.0%	Automated discovery step Extreme	×1.4 S17	Innovation & Commercialisation	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7
18	Austria	Europe	15.0 Advanced → Advanced	3.3% Possible	1.0%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.7 S15	Innovation & Commercialisation	Energy Technologies 8
19	Denmark	Europe	15.9 Advanced → Advanced	2.5% Possible	0.8%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.6 S20	Innovation & Commercialisation	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
20	Ireland	Europe	14.3 Established → Advanced	2.3% Possible	0.7%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.0 S20	Innovation & Commercialisation	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11
21	Australia	Indo-Pacific	14.8 Established → Advanced	2.2% Possible	0.7%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.8 S20	Innovation & Commercialisation	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
23	Poland	Europe	12.9 Established → Established	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.6 S15	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Energy Technologies 9.4
24	Czechia	Europe	12.6 Established → Established	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Clean power threshold Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.6 S15	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Energy Technologies 8
22	Norway	Europe	14.9 Established → Advanced	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.8 S20	Innovation & Commercialisation	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12
25	Hungary	Europe	11.8 Transitional → Established	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Clean power threshold Extreme+Automated discovery step Major	×2.0 S15	Industrial & Sectoral Base	Energy Technologies 8

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.