O10 · Prosperity outcome · Domain · Information & Influence

Broad rise in information and influence

The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Why it matters

A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.

Met when

The mean score of these 6 capability groups rises half a band (1.5 points).

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
Alliances & Security Cooperation
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy
Diaspora & Global Communities
Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from this outcome to the scenarios and conditions most likely to produce it, nation by nation, over 10 years.

Nations with a route: 53; of 197 · 4 reach the Frontier band
Typical likelihood: none; median nation, over 10 years
Leads most routes: Outbreak defence succeeds; 42 of 53 nations
Typical headroom: ×5.1; times Standard Severe, nearest single scenario

What produces it

Each nation’s most likely route, counted three ways: the scenario that does most of the work, the form the route takes, and the capability where a change would move the result most.

Lead scenario

Nations

Outbreak defence succeeds

Middle East settlement

Great-power détente

Public service leap

Form of the route

Nations

Two scenarios together

Binding capability

Nations

Biotechnology & Health Technologies

Information Environment & Strategic Communication

Justice System & Fundamental Rights

Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks

Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls

Likelihood, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further right is more likely.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

Most likely: South Korea 5.3%, Singapore 5.3%, United Kingdom 3.1%, Germany 2.6%, Japan 2.4%.

Who is in a position to take it?

Each nation’s score on this basket today against the likelihood of the outcome.

North America
Europe
China
Indo-Pacific
South Asia
Gulf and Middle East
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Russia and Eurasia

All 197 nations

The route shown is the most likely one, and the basket column shows the band the nation would move to. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a strong nation it is serious but leaves it well above where a weak nation starts. Where no route was found, the closest approach is the furthest any condition moved the basket, against the 1.5 points needed.

Region

Route

All 197 nations

Find a nation

197 of 197 nations

Rank	Nation	Region	Basket	Likelihood	3 years	Most likely route	Headroom	Moves first	Lever
1	South Korea	Indo-Pacific	15.5 Advanced → Advanced	5.3% Likely	1.6%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Major	×1.2 S13	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
2	Singapore	Indo-Pacific	13.1 Established → Established	5.3% Likely	1.6%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
3	United Kingdom	Europe	17.2 Advanced → Frontier	3.1% Possible	0.9%	Great-power détente Severe+Automated discovery step Severe	×1.3 S13	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches Frontier	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14
4	Germany	Europe	16.8 Advanced → Frontier	2.6% Possible	0.8%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication · reaches Frontier	National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4
5	Japan	Indo-Pacific	15.8 Advanced → Advanced	2.4% Possible	0.7%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
6	Netherlands	Europe	14.7 Established → Advanced	2.3% Possible	0.7%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
7	Sweden	Europe	14.8 Established → Advanced	1.8% Possible	0.5%	Chronic disease advance Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
9	Israel	Gulf and Middle East	13.1 Established → Established	1.6% Possible	0.5%	Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme	×1.6 S14	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3
8	Canada	North America	14.9 Established → Advanced	1.6% Possible	0.5%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.6 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7
10	France	Europe	17.7 Advanced → Frontier	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Automated discovery step Severe+Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication · reaches Frontier	Health System Capability 16.7
11	Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	11.0 Transitional → Established	1.5% Possible	0.4%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.4 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2
12	Belgium	Europe	12.7 Established → Established	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.4 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
14	Switzerland	Europe	13.9 Established → Advanced	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.4 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
15	Ireland	Europe	12.4 Established → Established	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.7 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11
13	China	China	16.5 Advanced → Frontier	1.1% Possible	0.3%	Great-power détente Extreme+Automated discovery step Major	×1.9 S13	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · reaches Frontier	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3
16	Finland	Europe	13.1 Established → Established	1.0% Unlikely	0.3%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.5 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7
17	Austria	Europe	11.8 Transitional → Established	0.9% Unlikely	0.3%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.8 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3
20	Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	14.5 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Market access opening Major+Middle East settlement Extreme	×1.4 S14	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3
18	Spain	Europe	14.3 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.6 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
19	Italy	Europe	14.6 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Automated discovery step Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.7 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13
21	Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	10.9 Transitional → Established	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Market access opening Major+Great-power détente Extreme	×1.8 S13	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
23	Denmark	Europe	13.1 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.4 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
22	Australia	Indo-Pacific	14.8 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.6 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3
24	Czechia	Europe	10.9 Transitional → Established	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.8 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8
25	Norway	Europe	14.4 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely	0.2%	Chronic disease advance Major+Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.6 S20	Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Neighbouring outcomes

Download every nation and outcome (CSV)All outcomes and settings

A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.