Load test · S05 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

BGeopolitical and securityScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.62
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.01
Sudan
Lose a domain band
146
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.22
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.21Canada: −0.23North America mean: −0.22Europe 42France: −0.24United Kingdom: −0.24Germany: −0.19Netherlands: −0.21Sweden: −0.25Switzerland: −0.19Norway: −0.21Finland: −0.22Denmark: −0.20Spain: −0.32Italy: −0.31Belgium: −0.29Austria: −0.26Poland: −0.32Ireland: −0.24Portugal: −0.33Czechia: −0.27Estonia: −0.31Luxembourg: −0.28Lithuania: −0.28Greece: −0.40Hungary: −0.41Slovenia: −0.28Romania: −0.43Slovakia: −0.37Latvia: −0.29Iceland: −0.27Croatia: −0.37Serbia: −0.48Bulgaria: −0.38Malta: −0.28Cyprus: −0.35Liechtenstein: −0.28North Macedonia: −0.51Montenegro: −0.49Albania: −0.49Monaco: −0.38Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.51Andorra: −0.36San Marino: −0.28Kosovo: −0.46Holy See: −0.47Europe mean: −0.33GermanySwitzerlandDenmarkChina 1China: −0.27China mean: −0.27Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.21South Korea: −0.21Singapore: −0.23Australia: −0.22Taiwan: −0.27New Zealand: −0.25Malaysia: −0.36Thailand: −0.32Indonesia: −0.44Vietnam: −0.47Philippines: −0.42Mongolia: −0.50Brunei: −0.44Fiji: −0.53Cambodia: −0.48North Korea: −0.66Myanmar: −0.71Papua New Guinea: −0.46Laos: −0.58Samoa: −0.49Tonga: −0.49Timor-Leste: −0.45Vanuatu: −0.62Solomon Islands: −0.55Palau: −0.47Marshall Islands: −0.60Micronesia: −0.62Kiribati: −0.65Tuvalu: −0.62Nauru: −0.52Indo-Pacific mean: −0.46South Asia 8India: −0.60Pakistan: −0.75Sri Lanka: −0.62Bangladesh: −0.75Nepal: −0.79Maldives: −0.62Bhutan: −0.64Afghanistan: −0.76South Asia mean: −0.69Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.37Türkiye: −0.62United Arab Emirates: −0.46Saudi Arabia: −0.54Qatar: −0.43Egypt: −0.79Iran: −0.84Oman: −0.60Kuwait: −0.64Jordan: −0.73Bahrain: −0.52Iraq: −0.86Lebanon: −0.89Palestine: −0.95Syria: −0.98Yemen: −0.93Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.70SyriaAfrica 53South Africa: −0.62Morocco: −0.65Mauritius: −0.56Tunisia: −0.78Nigeria: −0.69Kenya: −0.68Ghana: −0.63Algeria: −0.80Senegal: −0.56Botswana: −0.66Namibia: −0.72Rwanda: −0.71Tanzania: −0.65Ethiopia: −0.79Uganda: −0.70Côte d'Ivoire: −0.67Seychelles: −0.55Zambia: −0.75Cabo Verde: −0.63Angola: −0.92Cameroon: −0.78Zimbabwe: −0.90Mozambique: −0.78Benin: −0.63Togo: −0.72Gabon: −0.78Madagascar: −0.80Malawi: −0.78Eswatini: −0.83Sierra Leone: −0.73Mauritania: −0.83Burkina Faso: −0.80Lesotho: −0.86Mali: −0.75Gambia: −0.79Djibouti: −0.89Congo: −0.91Guinea: −0.83Niger: −0.80Libya: −0.91Liberia: −0.75DR Congo: −0.90São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.72Equatorial Guinea: −0.86Sudan: −1.01Burundi: −0.81Comoros: −0.70Chad: −0.81Guinea-Bissau: −0.76Eritrea: −0.88Central African Rep.: −0.81Somalia: −0.96South Sudan: −0.89Africa mean: −0.77SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.53Mexico: −0.51Chile: −0.50Argentina: −0.63Colombia: −0.63Peru: −0.54Uruguay: −0.54Costa Rica: −0.48Panama: −0.55Dominican Republic: −0.60Ecuador: −0.59Trinidad & Tobago: −0.52Jamaica: −0.67Cuba: −0.69Paraguay: −0.69El Salvador: −0.61Guatemala: −0.63Barbados: −0.57Bahamas: −0.55Bolivia: −0.67Honduras: −0.76Venezuela: −0.92Guyana: −0.64Nicaragua: −0.79Antigua & Barbuda: −0.68Grenada: −0.62Suriname: −0.76Belize: −0.69Dominica: −0.63Saint Lucia: −0.62Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.67Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.72Haiti: −0.98Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.64HaitiRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.60Ukraine: −0.58Kazakhstan: −0.60Georgia: −0.58Belarus: −0.74Azerbaijan: −0.67Armenia: −0.61Moldova: −0.55Uzbekistan: −0.80Kyrgyzstan: −0.74Tajikistan: −0.94Turkmenistan: −0.84Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.69
  • Region mean
Lowest: Sudan, Syria, Haiti. Highest: Denmark, Germany, Switzerland.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.21France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.24United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.24Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.19Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.21South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.21China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.27Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.21Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.25Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.23Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.23Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.22Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.19Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.21Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.22Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.37Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.27Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.20Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.32Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.31Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.29New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.25Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.26India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.60Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.32Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.60Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.62Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.24United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.46Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.53Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.33Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.27Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.31Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.36Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.54Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.51Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.28South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.62Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.28Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.32Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.50Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.40Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.41Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.28Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.43Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.37Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.44Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.29Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.47Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.27Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.37Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.58Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.43Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.65Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.63Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.63Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.79Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.48Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.38Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.28Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.42Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.54Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.54Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.35Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.84Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.60Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.56Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.60Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.75Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.48Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.78Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.58Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.64Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.73Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.69Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.52Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.62Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.28Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.68Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.55Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.63Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.80Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.74Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.60Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.67Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.59Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.75Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.52Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.61North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.51Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.56Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.49Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.55Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.67Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.49Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.66Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.72Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.69Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.71Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.80Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.38Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.65Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.51Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.69Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.50Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.79El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.61Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.63Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.44Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.57Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.70Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.67Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.55Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.55Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.53Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.36Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.67Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.76San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.28Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.79Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.75Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.48Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.74Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.63Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.46Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.86Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.89Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.62Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.92Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.92Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.64Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.78Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.79Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.68Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.90North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.66Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.78Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.63Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.72Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.62Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.76Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.69Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.94Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.78Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.64Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.80Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.71Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.63Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.62Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.67Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.46Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.78Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.72Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.95Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.83Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.58Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.73Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.83Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.84Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.49Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.80Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.86Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.75Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.79Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.49Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.89Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.91Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.83Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.80Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.91Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.45Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.75Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.62Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.55DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.90São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.72Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.47Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.86Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −1.01Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.81Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.60Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.62Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.70Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.81Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.98Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.65Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.62Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.76Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.98Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.88Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.52Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.47Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.81Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.93Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.96Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.76South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.89GermanySwitzerlandDenmarkSudanSyriaHaiti
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Governance & Integrity

Financial Strength

Information & Influence

National Security

Trade & Investment

Strategic Infrastructure

Human Capital

Production & Innovation

Critical Technology

−1.13

−0.93

−0.81

−0.64

−0.40

−0.39

−0.35

−0.35

−0.26

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
SudanAfricaHigh 0.882.611.60−1.01−38.6▼ 318 · 2d8%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
SyriaGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.942.221.24−0.98−44.1▼ 516 · 3d7%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.952.031.05−0.98−48.3▼ 388%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
SomaliaAfricaHigh 0.941.620.66−0.96−59.3▼ 168%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
PalestineGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.943.722.76−0.95−25.6▼ 420 · 3d18%Monetary & Currency Capability 0.7 · Inception
TajikistanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.904.013.06−0.94−23.5▼ 918 · 1d16%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception
YemenGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.971.620.70−0.93−57.2▼ 175%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
AngolaAfricaHigh 0.904.603.68−0.92−20.1▼ 219 · 2d19%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.8 · Inception
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.844.553.64−0.92−20.2▼ 231 · 3d15%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.6 · Inception
CongoAfricaHigh 0.863.192.28−0.91−28.6▼ 526 · 5d14%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.1 · Inception
LibyaAfricaHigh 0.803.012.10−0.91−30.3▼ 62510%Justice System & Fundamental Rights 0.3 · Inception
ZimbabweAfricaHigh 0.874.343.44−0.90−20.7▼ 218 · 3d19%Monetary & Currency Capability 0.9 · Inception
DR CongoAfricaHigh 0.842.871.97−0.90−31.5▼ 224 · 5d13%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.874.663.76−0.89−19.2▼ 227 · 3d21%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.9 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.833.202.32−0.89−27.7▼ 421 · 3d13%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.931.380.49−0.89−64.7036%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
EritreaAfricaHigh 0.832.011.13−0.88−43.7▼ 110 · 1d5%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
IraqGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.844.693.83−0.86−18.4▼ 220 · 1d20%Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
LesothoAfricaHigh 0.903.432.57−0.86−25.0▼ 219 · 1d20%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Equatorial GuineaAfricaHigh 0.772.801.94−0.86−30.5025 · 2d8%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
IranGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.858.177.33−0.84−10.2▼ 318 · 2d25%Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.4 · Inception
TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.743.552.71−0.84−23.6▼ 222 · 6d9%Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
EswatiniAfricaHigh 0.823.712.88−0.83−22.4▼ 11616%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaHigh 0.803.582.75−0.83−23.2▼ 111 · 2d18%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception
GuineaAfricaHigh 0.783.152.32−0.83−26.3▼ 124 · 4d14%Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.3 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Social Infrastructure· Medium
  • Force Generation & Mobilisation· High
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication· High
  • Political Institutions & Civic Participation· High
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights· High
  • Internal Security & Order· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability· High
  • Monetary & Currency Capability· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Investment Attraction & Projection· Medium
Buffers
  • Political Institutions & Civic Participation
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
  • Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

regional exposure (45%); youth unemployment rate (ranked) (20%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (20%); consumer price inflation (ranked) (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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