Capture test · S20 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

EHealth↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
92
net position above +10
Mixed
92
between the two
Losers
13
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+70
Singapore

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−200+20+40+60Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +51.7Canada: +51.7North America mean: +51.7Europe 42France: +64.6United Kingdom: +61.7Germany: +65.7Netherlands: +67.6Sweden: +64.5Switzerland: +59.2Norway: +53.6Finland: +57.6Denmark: +59.9Spain: +53.3Italy: +49.5Belgium: +58.2Austria: +47.0Poland: +44.0Ireland: +48.1Portugal: +42.3Czechia: +44.8Estonia: +42.4Luxembourg: +37.4Lithuania: +40.6Greece: +37.3Hungary: +42.6Slovenia: +38.6Romania: +31.9Slovakia: +32.0Latvia: +33.2Iceland: +35.2Croatia: +29.5Serbia: +29.4Bulgaria: +31.5Malta: +34.2Cyprus: +26.1Liechtenstein: +13.3North Macedonia: +16.9Montenegro: +16.9Albania: +12.0Monaco: +21.2Bosnia & Herzegovina: +12.5Andorra: +14.3San Marino: +14.2Kosovo: +9.4Holy See: +4.2Europe mean: +38.1GermanyNetherlandsChina 1China: +37.7China mean: +37.7Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +62.9South Korea: +63.9Singapore: +70.0Australia: +53.9Taiwan: +57.6New Zealand: +43.8Malaysia: +40.5Thailand: +36.3Indonesia: +25.1Vietnam: +29.7Philippines: +18.7Mongolia: +13.4Brunei: +12.7Fiji: +9.6Cambodia: +6.8North Korea: +10.3Myanmar: +4.3Papua New Guinea: +1.9Laos: +4.5Samoa: +2.9Tonga: +2.9Timor-Leste: +1.1Vanuatu: +1.3Solomon Islands: +1.5Palau: +3.9Marshall Islands: +3.9Micronesia: +0.9Kiribati: +1.3Tuvalu: +1.7Nauru: +2.1Indo-Pacific mean: +19.6SingaporeSouth Asia 8India: +24.2Pakistan: +11.1Sri Lanka: +9.5Bangladesh: +10.6Nepal: +2.3Maldives: +5.8Bhutan: +1.5Afghanistan: −6.5South Asia mean: +7.3Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +42.2Türkiye: +30.5United Arab Emirates: +30.9Saudi Arabia: +24.2Qatar: +19.9Egypt: +12.6Iran: +16.3Oman: +15.3Kuwait: +14.0Jordan: +15.7Bahrain: +13.4Iraq: +2.7Lebanon: +10.5Palestine: +0.9Syria: −5.1Yemen: −6.9Gulf and Middle East mean: +14.8Africa 53South Africa: +26.8Morocco: +19.2Mauritius: +13.5Tunisia: +15.4Nigeria: +6.1Kenya: +2.5Ghana: +7.2Algeria: +8.0Senegal: +4.8Botswana: +3.8Namibia: +2.7Rwanda: +1.7Tanzania: −1.3Ethiopia: −3.0Uganda: −2.2Côte d'Ivoire: −2.8Seychelles: +3.6Zambia: −2.5Cabo Verde: −0.8Angola: −5.1Cameroon: −5.6Zimbabwe: −6.2Mozambique: −5.2Benin: −6.7Togo: −7.0Gabon: −3.1Madagascar: −6.5Malawi: −7.6Eswatini: −7.5Sierra Leone: −8.1Mauritania: −6.7Burkina Faso: −8.4Lesotho: −7.6Mali: −8.7Gambia: −6.0Djibouti: −7.0Congo: −8.4Guinea: −9.1Niger: −11.4Libya: −6.6Liberia: −9.1DR Congo: −9.7São Tomé & Príncipe: −9.5Equatorial Guinea: −10.0Sudan: −12.5Burundi: −12.4Comoros: −12.6Chad: −14.0Guinea-Bissau: −13.7Eritrea: −13.1Central African Rep.: −14.9Somalia: −15.3South Sudan: −15.5Africa mean: −3.9South SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +33.2Mexico: +31.8Chile: +28.9Argentina: +26.0Colombia: +20.9Peru: +18.6Uruguay: +23.2Costa Rica: +19.9Panama: +15.5Dominican Republic: +10.6Ecuador: +12.0Trinidad & Tobago: +10.5Jamaica: +10.2Cuba: +16.2Paraguay: +8.1El Salvador: +9.0Guatemala: +4.3Barbados: +5.6Bahamas: +6.9Bolivia: +4.2Honduras: +4.2Venezuela: +7.6Guyana: +2.3Nicaragua: +3.9Antigua & Barbuda: +2.4Grenada: +2.4Suriname: +2.8Belize: +1.3Dominica: +2.6Saint Lucia: +1.5Saint Kitts & Nevis: +1.4Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +2.1Haiti: −5.2Latin America and Caribbean mean: +10.5Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: +21.3Ukraine: +11.1Kazakhstan: +3.6Georgia: +3.2Belarus: +5.9Azerbaijan: −4.0Armenia: −1.5Moldova: −4.7Uzbekistan: −7.7Kyrgyzstan: −13.7Tajikistan: −18.5Turkmenistan: −20.0Russia and Eurasia mean: −2.1TajikistanTurkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, South Sudan. Highest: Germany, Netherlands, Singapore.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20+40+60Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 83, net position +51.70France (Europe): readiness 84.1, net position +64.60United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 83.7, net position +61.70Germany (Europe): readiness 83.8, net position +65.70Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 81.9, net position +62.90South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.7, net position +63.90China (China): readiness 72.1, net position +37.70Netherlands (Europe): readiness 75.5, net position +67.60Sweden (Europe): readiness 75.9, net position +64.50Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 78.2, net position +70.00Canada (North America): readiness 73.7, net position +51.70Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.1, net position +53.90Switzerland (Europe): readiness 72.1, net position +59.20Norway (Europe): readiness 69.3, net position +53.60Finland (Europe): readiness 71.1, net position +57.60Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 70.9, net position +42.20Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 71, net position +57.60Denmark (Europe): readiness 69.8, net position +59.90Spain (Europe): readiness 70.8, net position +53.30Italy (Europe): readiness 67.7, net position +49.50Belgium (Europe): readiness 64.6, net position +58.20New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 61.8, net position +43.80Austria (Europe): readiness 61.7, net position +47.00India (South Asia): readiness 56.4, net position +24.20Poland (Europe): readiness 60.4, net position +44.00Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 59.2, net position +21.30Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 57.9, net position +30.50Ireland (Europe): readiness 61.3, net position +48.10United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 53.2, net position +30.90Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 57.2, net position +33.20Portugal (Europe): readiness 56.1, net position +42.30Czechia (Europe): readiness 56.1, net position +44.80Estonia (Europe): readiness 51.7, net position +42.40Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 53.8, net position +40.50Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 50.5, net position +24.20Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53.2, net position +31.80Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 43.5, net position +37.40South Africa (Africa): readiness 54.3, net position +26.80Lithuania (Europe): readiness 50.6, net position +40.60Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.2, net position +36.30Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.6, net position +28.90Greece (Europe): readiness 47.4, net position +37.30Hungary (Europe): readiness 52.6, net position +42.60Slovenia (Europe): readiness 49.6, net position +38.60Romania (Europe): readiness 48.1, net position +31.90Slovakia (Europe): readiness 43.7, net position +32.00Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.7, net position +25.10Latvia (Europe): readiness 42.6, net position +33.20Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.9, net position +29.70Iceland (Europe): readiness 45.4, net position +35.20Croatia (Europe): readiness 40.5, net position +29.50Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 43.5, net position +11.10Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.2, net position +19.90Morocco (Africa): readiness 41, net position +19.20Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.6, net position +26.00Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.3, net position +20.90Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 43.1, net position +12.60Serbia (Europe): readiness 42.1, net position +29.40Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 40.9, net position +31.50Malta (Europe): readiness 38.5, net position +34.20Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.8, net position +18.70Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.2, net position +18.60Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.6, net position +23.20Cyprus (Europe): readiness 35.4, net position +26.10Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.3, net position +16.30Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 37.7, net position +3.60Mauritius (Africa): readiness 34, net position +13.50Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.9, net position +15.30Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 37.4, net position +11.10Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35, net position +19.90Tunisia (Africa): readiness 37.3, net position +15.40Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31, net position +3.20Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29.6, net position +14.00Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32.7, net position +15.70Nigeria (Africa): readiness 33.3, net position +6.10Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27, net position +13.40Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 31.6, net position +9.50Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 25.6, net position +13.30Kenya (Africa): readiness 33.2, net position +2.50Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31, net position +15.50Ghana (Africa): readiness 31.3, net position +7.20Algeria (Africa): readiness 30.5, net position +8.00Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.1, net position +5.90Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.3, net position +10.60Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.8, net position −4.00Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.9, net position +12.00Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 33.1, net position +10.60Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.9, net position +10.50Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25.9, net position −1.50North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 25.5, net position +16.90Senegal (Africa): readiness 30.1, net position +4.80Montenegro (Europe): readiness 24.9, net position +16.90Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.3, net position −4.70Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.8, net position +10.20Albania (Europe): readiness 21.1, net position +12.00Botswana (Africa): readiness 22.4, net position +3.80Namibia (Africa): readiness 22.5, net position +2.70Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 34.3, net position +16.20Rwanda (Africa): readiness 30.4, net position +1.70Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.7, net position −7.70Monaco (Europe): readiness 24.6, net position +21.20Tanzania (Africa): readiness 25.3, net position −1.30Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 21.6, net position +12.50Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.8, net position +8.10Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.8, net position +13.40Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 24.7, net position −3.00El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.1, net position +9.00Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.2, net position +4.30Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20.1, net position +12.70Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.1, net position +5.60Uganda (Africa): readiness 26, net position −2.20Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 20.4, net position −2.80Seychelles (Africa): readiness 19.3, net position +3.60Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.2, net position +6.90Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.2, net position +9.60Andorra (Europe): readiness 19.1, net position +14.30Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.9, net position +4.20Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.9, net position +4.20San Marino (Europe): readiness 17.9, net position +14.20Nepal (South Asia): readiness 19.1, net position +2.30Zambia (Africa): readiness 20.2, net position −2.50Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.3, net position +6.80Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18.6, net position −13.70Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 16.4, net position −0.80Kosovo (Europe): readiness 17.1, net position +9.40Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 18.9, net position +2.70Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 23.3, net position +10.50Maldives (South Asia): readiness 18.2, net position +5.80Angola (Africa): readiness 15.1, net position −5.10Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.4, net position +7.60Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.9, net position +2.30Cameroon (Africa): readiness 17.7, net position −5.60Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.9, net position +3.90Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15, net position +2.40Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position −6.20North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.3, net position +10.30Mozambique (Africa): readiness 17.9, net position −5.20Benin (Africa): readiness 14.8, net position −6.70Togo (Africa): readiness 14.6, net position −7.00Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14, net position +2.40Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14, net position +2.80Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.9, net position +1.30Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.2, net position −18.50Gabon (Africa): readiness 15.2, net position −3.10Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 13.6, net position +1.50Madagascar (Africa): readiness 16.6, net position −6.50Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.8, net position +4.30Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.3, net position +2.60Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.8, net position +1.50Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.5, net position +1.40Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.4, net position +1.90Malawi (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position −7.60Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.5, net position +2.10Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.1, net position +0.90Eswatini (Africa): readiness 13.6, net position −7.50Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.7, net position +4.50Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 14, net position −8.10Mauritania (Africa): readiness 13.2, net position −6.70Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 12.5, net position −20.00Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12, net position +2.90Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 14.4, net position −8.40Lesotho (Africa): readiness 12, net position −7.60Mali (Africa): readiness 13.6, net position −8.70Gambia (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position −6.00Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.4, net position +2.90Djibouti (Africa): readiness 10.9, net position −7.00Congo (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position −8.40Guinea (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −9.10Niger (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −11.40Libya (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −6.60Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.2, net position +1.10Liberia (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position −9.10Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.5, net position +1.30Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.1, net position +1.50DR Congo (Africa): readiness 11.9, net position −9.70São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 9.9, net position −9.50Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.1, net position +3.90Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 9.2, net position −10.00Sudan (Africa): readiness 9.9, net position −12.50Burundi (Africa): readiness 8.1, net position −12.40Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.4, net position +3.90Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.6, net position +0.90Comoros (Africa): readiness 8, net position −12.60Chad (Africa): readiness 6.7, net position −14.00Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.2, net position −5.10Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.9, net position +1.30Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8, net position +1.70Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 6.7, net position −13.70Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.2, net position −5.20Eritrea (Africa): readiness 8, net position −13.10Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.6, net position +2.10Holy See (Europe): readiness 8.1, net position +4.20Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5.4, net position −14.90Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5.1, net position −6.90Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.3, net position −15.30Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 5.3, net position −6.50South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4, net position −15.50GermanyNetherlandsSingaporeTajikistanTurkmenistanSouth Sudan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: standing outside the surveillance and supply network, and suppliers that depended on scarcity pricing.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+70.070.80.87884Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established
2NetherlandsEuropeGainer+67.668.40.97683Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established
3GermanyEuropeGainer+65.766.50.78485National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · Advanced
4FranceEuropeGainer+64.665.30.78486Health System Capability 16.7 · Advanced
5SwedenEuropeGainer+64.565.20.87685Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · Established
6South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+63.964.90.98181Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced
7JapanIndo-PacificGainer+62.963.70.88284Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced
8United KingdomEuropeGainer+61.762.40.78485Health System Capability 16.3 · Advanced
9DenmarkEuropeGainer+59.960.90.97081Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · Established
10SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+59.260.00.87285Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
11BelgiumEuropeGainer+58.259.41.26576Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11 · Transitional
13TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+57.659.21.67168Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established
12FinlandEuropeGainer+57.658.50.97183Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
14AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+53.954.80.97682Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established
15NorwayEuropeGainer+53.654.30.76985Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
16SpainEuropeGainer+53.354.61.37174Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
18CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+51.754.42.87481Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established
17United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+51.754.22.58383Health System Capability 15.7 · Advanced
19ItalyEuropeGainer+49.550.91.46871Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established
20IrelandEuropeGainer+48.149.51.46172Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
21AustriaEuropeGainer+47.048.21.26277Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 · Transitional
22CzechiaEuropeGainer+44.846.61.85665Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional
23PolandEuropeGainer+44.045.71.76066Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
24New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+43.844.91.16278Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
25HungaryEuropeGainer+42.644.52.05360Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 · Transitional

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Health System Capability
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Social Infrastructure
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Health System Capability
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
Gain exposure

regional exposure (30%); urban share of population (30%); share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (20%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%).

Loss exposure

Standing outside the surveillance and supply network, and suppliers that depended on scarcity pricing: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results