Capture test · S13 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

BGeopolitical and security↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
25
net position above +10
Mixed
70
between the two
Losers
102
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+52
United Kingdom

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−40−200+20+40Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +26.6Canada: +34.8North America mean: +30.7Europe 42France: +25.6United Kingdom: +51.5Germany: +33.4Netherlands: +34.8Sweden: +26.2Switzerland: +31.2Norway: +13.5Finland: +19.8Denmark: +19.5Spain: +9.4Italy: +14.0Belgium: +26.0Austria: +21.8Poland: +9.7Ireland: +24.6Portugal: +7.0Czechia: +11.1Estonia: +7.8Luxembourg: +7.2Lithuania: +5.7Greece: +1.5Hungary: +7.3Slovenia: +5.5Romania: −1.6Slovakia: +4.0Latvia: +1.6Iceland: −1.5Croatia: −1.4Serbia: −2.6Bulgaria: −2.4Malta: +1.5Cyprus: −2.3Liechtenstein: −6.1North Macedonia: −9.2Montenegro: −11.2Albania: −13.1Monaco: −14.8Bosnia & Herzegovina: −14.6Andorra: −18.1San Marino: −15.3Kosovo: −17.1Holy See: −26.8Europe mean: +6.3United KingdomChina 1China: +35.8China mean: +35.8Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +35.2South Korea: +50.1Singapore: +49.0Australia: +14.3Taiwan: +24.6New Zealand: +6.4Malaysia: +19.2Thailand: +4.3Indonesia: −5.8Vietnam: −4.8Philippines: −7.0Mongolia: −25.7Brunei: −20.6Fiji: −23.9Cambodia: −25.9North Korea: −40.1Myanmar: −35.3Papua New Guinea: −32.1Laos: −33.5Samoa: −28.3Tonga: −31.1Timor-Leste: −38.9Vanuatu: −30.7Solomon Islands: −41.0Palau: −30.4Marshall Islands: −28.6Micronesia: −33.9Kiribati: −30.5Tuvalu: −31.1Nauru: −31.0Indo-Pacific mean: −13.6South KoreaSingaporeNorth KoreaSolomon IslandsSouth Asia 8India: −1.4Pakistan: −17.1Sri Lanka: −17.0Bangladesh: −17.9Nepal: −22.3Maldives: −16.9Bhutan: −20.0Afghanistan: −29.5South Asia mean: −17.8Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +19.9Türkiye: +8.1United Arab Emirates: +15.8Saudi Arabia: +5.8Qatar: +3.5Egypt: −1.5Iran: −4.7Oman: −0.4Kuwait: −4.3Jordan: −3.0Bahrain: +0.2Iraq: −15.8Lebanon: −6.6Palestine: −8.8Syria: −13.0Yemen: −13.5Gulf and Middle East mean: −1.1Africa 53South Africa: +4.8Morocco: +3.0Mauritius: −0.1Tunisia: −1.5Nigeria: −4.4Kenya: −5.9Ghana: −4.2Algeria: −6.7Senegal: −4.8Botswana: −6.0Namibia: −5.3Rwanda: −6.2Tanzania: −7.8Ethiopia: −9.8Uganda: −8.5Côte d'Ivoire: −7.7Seychelles: −4.6Zambia: −9.0Cabo Verde: −6.9Angola: −14.8Cameroon: −10.9Zimbabwe: −13.1Mozambique: −10.4Benin: −9.9Togo: −9.4Gabon: −13.2Madagascar: −13.6Malawi: −11.0Eswatini: −8.4Sierra Leone: −22.1Mauritania: −14.1Burkina Faso: −10.1Lesotho: −12.6Mali: −10.8Gambia: −9.6Djibouti: −8.5Congo: −20.3Guinea: −18.4Niger: −15.7Libya: −12.1Liberia: −10.5DR Congo: −24.8São Tomé & Príncipe: −11.4Equatorial Guinea: −17.4Sudan: −16.9Burundi: −13.1Comoros: −13.1Chad: −17.1Guinea-Bissau: −12.7Eritrea: −29.2Central African Rep.: −17.0Somalia: −13.0South Sudan: −27.4Africa mean: −11.0Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +1.9Mexico: −9.1Chile: +0.1Argentina: −7.1Colombia: −8.1Peru: −8.3Uruguay: −6.9Costa Rica: −5.5Panama: −8.3Dominican Republic: −14.5Ecuador: −14.0Trinidad & Tobago: −12.3Jamaica: −14.1Cuba: −18.0Paraguay: −10.6El Salvador: −14.8Guatemala: −16.6Barbados: −14.5Bahamas: −17.8Bolivia: −15.2Honduras: −20.2Venezuela: −25.8Guyana: −16.2Nicaragua: −22.2Antigua & Barbuda: −14.5Grenada: −18.2Suriname: −14.5Belize: −18.1Dominica: −14.6Saint Lucia: −16.1Saint Kitts & Nevis: −18.3Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −16.5Haiti: −35.7Latin America and Caribbean mean: −14.1Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −14.1Ukraine: −14.1Kazakhstan: −18.0Georgia: −15.1Belarus: −18.0Azerbaijan: −19.7Armenia: −18.3Moldova: −20.1Uzbekistan: −22.9Kyrgyzstan: −24.8Tajikistan: −30.4Turkmenistan: −43.0Russia and Eurasia mean: −21.5Turkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Turkmenistan, Solomon Islands, North Korea. Highest: Singapore, South Korea, United Kingdom.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−40−200+20+40Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 88.7, net position +26.60France (Europe): readiness 79.7, net position +25.60United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 76.7, net position +51.50Germany (Europe): readiness 83.7, net position +33.40Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 83.2, net position +35.20South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.8, net position +50.10China (China): readiness 74.9, net position +35.80Netherlands (Europe): readiness 75.6, net position +34.80Sweden (Europe): readiness 62.7, net position +26.20Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.8, net position +49.00Canada (North America): readiness 63.1, net position +34.80Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.1, net position +14.30Switzerland (Europe): readiness 61.6, net position +31.20Norway (Europe): readiness 50.5, net position +13.50Finland (Europe): readiness 57.1, net position +19.80Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 60.1, net position +19.90Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.7, net position +24.60Denmark (Europe): readiness 48.2, net position +19.50Spain (Europe): readiness 53.1, net position +9.40Italy (Europe): readiness 64.5, net position +14.00Belgium (Europe): readiness 64.6, net position +26.00New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.5, net position +6.40Austria (Europe): readiness 59.1, net position +21.80India (South Asia): readiness 54, net position −1.40Poland (Europe): readiness 46.8, net position +9.70Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 49.2, net position −14.10Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47, net position +8.10Ireland (Europe): readiness 52.9, net position +24.60United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 41.3, net position +15.80Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 42.3, net position +1.90Portugal (Europe): readiness 41.3, net position +7.00Czechia (Europe): readiness 47.1, net position +11.10Estonia (Europe): readiness 34.8, net position +7.80Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 57.1, net position +19.20Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 37.2, net position +5.80Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 42.5, net position −9.10Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 33.5, net position +7.20South Africa (Africa): readiness 38.9, net position +4.80Lithuania (Europe): readiness 35.8, net position +5.70Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 41.6, net position +4.30Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.9, net position +0.10Greece (Europe): readiness 36.7, net position +1.50Hungary (Europe): readiness 39.9, net position +7.30Slovenia (Europe): readiness 34.7, net position +5.50Romania (Europe): readiness 35.4, net position −1.60Slovakia (Europe): readiness 33.5, net position +4.00Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.8, net position −5.80Latvia (Europe): readiness 31.1, net position +1.60Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 39.3, net position −4.80Iceland (Europe): readiness 27, net position −1.50Croatia (Europe): readiness 29.2, net position −1.40Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 30.2, net position −14.10Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27.6, net position +3.50Morocco (Africa): readiness 32.3, net position +3.00Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.5, net position −7.10Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.4, net position −8.10Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29.6, net position −1.50Serbia (Europe): readiness 29.1, net position −2.60Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 29.5, net position −2.40Malta (Europe): readiness 29, net position +1.50Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.8, net position −7.00Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.4, net position −8.30Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.3, net position −6.90Cyprus (Europe): readiness 25.2, net position −2.30Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 26.9, net position −4.70Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 22.8, net position −18.00Mauritius (Africa): readiness 22.4, net position −0.10Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 23, net position −0.40Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 24.9, net position −17.10Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.1, net position −5.50Tunisia (Africa): readiness 25.5, net position −1.50Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 21.6, net position −15.10Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.6, net position −4.30Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 20.9, net position −3.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 22.9, net position −4.40Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 20.3, net position +0.20Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 21.7, net position −17.00Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 19.9, net position −6.10Kenya (Africa): readiness 22.2, net position −5.90Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.9, net position −8.30Ghana (Africa): readiness 21.2, net position −4.20Algeria (Africa): readiness 17.6, net position −6.70Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.5, net position −18.00Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.1, net position −14.50Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 17.4, net position −19.70Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.1, net position −14.00Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 20.3, net position −17.90Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.4, net position −12.30Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 19.7, net position −18.30North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 18.9, net position −9.20Senegal (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position −4.80Montenegro (Europe): readiness 17.4, net position −11.20Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 17.6, net position −20.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.1, net position −14.10Albania (Europe): readiness 16.5, net position −13.10Botswana (Africa): readiness 15.3, net position −6.00Namibia (Africa): readiness 15.1, net position −5.30Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.6, net position −18.00Rwanda (Africa): readiness 17.5, net position −6.20Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.9, net position −22.90Monaco (Europe): readiness 13.2, net position −14.80Tanzania (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position −7.80Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 14.9, net position −14.60Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.6, net position −10.60Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.3, net position −25.70Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 18.3, net position −9.80El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.1, net position −14.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.5, net position −16.60Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.9, net position −20.60Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.6, net position −14.50Uganda (Africa): readiness 16.3, net position −8.50Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 16.6, net position −7.70Seychelles (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −4.60Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.6, net position −17.80Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.8, net position −23.90Andorra (Europe): readiness 9.3, net position −18.10Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.8, net position −15.20Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.7, net position −20.20San Marino (Europe): readiness 10.2, net position −15.30Nepal (South Asia): readiness 12.2, net position −22.30Zambia (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −9.00Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.6, net position −25.90Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 12.3, net position −24.80Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 10.9, net position −6.90Kosovo (Europe): readiness 11.5, net position −17.10Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 11.6, net position −15.80Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 12.7, net position −6.60Maldives (South Asia): readiness 11.1, net position −16.90Angola (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position −14.80Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.6, net position −25.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.6, net position −16.20Cameroon (Africa): readiness 12.3, net position −10.90Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.3, net position −22.20Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.1, net position −14.50Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −13.10North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.6, net position −40.10Mozambique (Africa): readiness 12, net position −10.40Benin (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position −9.90Togo (Africa): readiness 11.6, net position −9.40Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.4, net position −18.20Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.3, net position −14.50Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.8, net position −18.10Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 10, net position −30.40Gabon (Africa): readiness 10.7, net position −13.20Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 8.5, net position −20.00Madagascar (Africa): readiness 10.9, net position −13.60Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.8, net position −35.30Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 8.5, net position −14.60Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.2, net position −16.10Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9, net position −18.30Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.2, net position −32.10Malawi (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −11.00Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 8.9, net position −16.50Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.5, net position −8.80Eswatini (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −8.40Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.5, net position −33.50Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 9.8, net position −22.10Mauritania (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −14.10Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 7.4, net position −43.00Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.4, net position −28.30Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 9.3, net position −10.10Lesotho (Africa): readiness 9.1, net position −12.60Mali (Africa): readiness 8.7, net position −10.80Gambia (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position −9.60Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.3, net position −31.10Djibouti (Africa): readiness 10.7, net position −8.50Congo (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position −20.30Guinea (Africa): readiness 8.5, net position −18.40Niger (Africa): readiness 8.2, net position −15.70Libya (Africa): readiness 6.4, net position −12.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.5, net position −38.90Liberia (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position −10.50Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.6, net position −30.70Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.7, net position −41.00DR Congo (Africa): readiness 7.7, net position −24.80São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position −11.40Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.1, net position −30.40Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 7.7, net position −17.40Sudan (Africa): readiness 6, net position −16.90Burundi (Africa): readiness 6.9, net position −13.10Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.9, net position −28.60Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.2, net position −33.90Comoros (Africa): readiness 5.7, net position −13.10Chad (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position −17.10Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 4.5, net position −13.00Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 5.1, net position −30.50Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 4.4, net position −31.10Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 5.6, net position −12.70Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 5.6, net position −35.70Eritrea (Africa): readiness 4.3, net position −29.20Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 4.4, net position −31.00Holy See (Europe): readiness 6.3, net position −26.80Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 4.5, net position −17.00Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 3.4, net position −13.50Somalia (Africa): readiness 3.9, net position −13.00Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 2.9, net position −29.50South Sudan (Africa): readiness 3.6, net position −27.40United KingdomSouth KoreaSingaporeNorth KoreaTurkmenistanSolomon Islands
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: capacity built behind tariffs and controls, trade and investment won by diversion, and leverage or security assumptions that depended on the rivalry.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1United KingdomEuropeGainer+51.559.17.67781Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established
2South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+50.160.710.67881Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
3SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+49.057.28.27784Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 · Established
4ChinaChinaGainer+35.839.63.87574Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
5JapanIndo-PacificGainer+35.244.59.38383Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 16 · Advanced
7CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+34.846.011.26379Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional
6NetherlandsEuropeGainer+34.841.16.37682Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established
8GermanyEuropeGainer+33.438.85.48486Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 16.2 · Advanced
9SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+31.237.46.26284Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional
10United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+26.632.15.58984Export Capability & Sophistication 17 · Advanced
11SwedenEuropeGainer+26.232.15.86384Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional
12BelgiumEuropeGainer+26.035.09.06573Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.3 · Transitional
13FranceEuropeGainer+25.631.45.88083Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · Established
15IrelandEuropeGainer+24.637.412.75371Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 · Foundational
14TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+24.644.820.25369Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational
16AustriaEuropeGainer+21.830.38.65976Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional
17IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+19.929.69.76068Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional
18FinlandEuropeGainer+19.826.97.15781Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · Foundational
19DenmarkEuropeGainer+19.526.97.44880Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
20MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+19.241.522.35763Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional
21United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+15.822.46.64167Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
22AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+14.326.512.25177Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational
23ItalyEuropeGainer+14.025.811.86567Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.3 · Transitional
24NorwayEuropeGainer+13.519.56.05181Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent
25CzechiaEuropeGainer+11.122.911.84763Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Trade Policy & Market Access
  • Export Capability & Sophistication
  • Global Value Chain Position
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics
  • Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation
  • Investment Attraction & Projection

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
Gain exposure

regional exposure (40%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); share of exports going to china and the united states (30%).

Loss exposure

Capacity built behind tariffs and controls, trade and investment won by diversion, and leverage or security assumptions that depended on the rivalry: regional exposure (80%); share of exports going to china and the united states (20%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

0 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

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