Capture test · S17 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

DTechnology and infrastructure↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
32
net position above +10
Mixed
34
between the two
Losers
131
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+87
United States

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−40−200+20+40+60+80Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +87.3Canada: +54.3North America mean: +70.8United StatesEurope 42France: +59.6United Kingdom: +60.4Germany: +64.3Netherlands: +59.1Sweden: +48.2Switzerland: +52.3Norway: +31.2Finland: +41.4Denmark: +32.4Spain: +32.7Italy: +38.9Belgium: +44.2Austria: +39.9Poland: +19.1Ireland: +29.0Portugal: +18.2Czechia: +18.8Estonia: +13.8Luxembourg: +13.2Lithuania: +8.9Greece: +8.5Hungary: +12.9Slovenia: +7.2Romania: +4.7Slovakia: +2.7Latvia: +4.3Iceland: +5.4Croatia: +0.3Serbia: −0.3Bulgaria: −1.6Malta: +4.0Cyprus: −0.9Liechtenstein: −15.1North Macedonia: −15.6Montenegro: −12.2Albania: −19.7Monaco: −12.4Bosnia & Herzegovina: −20.4Andorra: −17.2San Marino: −31.2Kosovo: −29.9Holy See: −42.7Europe mean: +13.2China 1China: +56.9China mean: +56.9Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +65.9South Korea: +67.9Singapore: +61.1Australia: +33.4Taiwan: +50.8New Zealand: +17.1Malaysia: +17.5Thailand: +6.5Indonesia: −5.3Vietnam: −0.5Philippines: −4.5Mongolia: −26.8Brunei: −27.3Fiji: −17.1Cambodia: −33.0North Korea: −25.0Myanmar: −38.9Papua New Guinea: −39.1Laos: −33.8Samoa: −21.0Tonga: −23.3Timor-Leste: −32.0Vanuatu: −21.4Solomon Islands: −27.5Palau: −22.7Marshall Islands: −24.3Micronesia: −22.6Kiribati: −23.9Tuvalu: −23.0Nauru: −33.1Indo-Pacific mean: −6.9JapanSouth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: +8.9Pakistan: −19.4Sri Lanka: −22.8Bangladesh: −29.1Nepal: −22.4Maldives: −20.8Bhutan: −37.3Afghanistan: −34.5South Asia mean: −22.2Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +55.8Türkiye: +11.6United Arab Emirates: +7.0Saudi Arabia: +3.0Qatar: −8.9Egypt: −9.4Iran: −10.3Oman: −15.7Kuwait: −18.7Jordan: −12.0Bahrain: −16.1Iraq: −32.1Lebanon: −9.0Palestine: −16.4Syria: −20.0Yemen: −33.6Gulf and Middle East mean: −7.8Africa 53South Africa: −1.4Morocco: −7.8Mauritius: −8.5Tunisia: −12.3Nigeria: −23.1Kenya: −14.2Ghana: −21.7Algeria: −26.6Senegal: −22.2Botswana: −23.9Namibia: −25.7Rwanda: −19.5Tanzania: −27.4Ethiopia: −26.9Uganda: −25.8Côte d'Ivoire: −22.7Seychelles: −16.7Zambia: −34.6Cabo Verde: −17.6Angola: −38.1Cameroon: −30.7Zimbabwe: −33.9Mozambique: −31.0Benin: −23.1Togo: −25.9Gabon: −39.6Madagascar: −29.1Malawi: −24.5Eswatini: −36.8Sierra Leone: −35.1Mauritania: −37.3Burkina Faso: −37.0Lesotho: −37.3Mali: −31.0Gambia: −24.7Djibouti: −25.2Congo: −43.1Guinea: −34.6Niger: −28.2Libya: −45.3Liberia: −33.1DR Congo: −45.7São Tomé & Príncipe: −21.3Equatorial Guinea: −44.5Sudan: −33.6Burundi: −23.9Comoros: −24.3Chad: −42.0Guinea-Bissau: −28.9Eritrea: −35.3Central African Rep.: −31.4Somalia: −35.6South Sudan: −47.5Africa mean: −28.6DR CongoSouth SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +6.2Mexico: −1.2Chile: −4.4Argentina: −5.8Colombia: −9.9Peru: −16.4Uruguay: −5.8Costa Rica: −7.1Panama: −17.4Dominican Republic: −20.3Ecuador: −21.2Trinidad & Tobago: −22.9Jamaica: −16.3Cuba: −24.6Paraguay: −27.0El Salvador: −21.0Guatemala: −21.4Barbados: −15.1Bahamas: −15.5Bolivia: −25.2Honduras: −28.3Venezuela: −25.3Guyana: −38.1Nicaragua: −30.9Antigua & Barbuda: −22.9Grenada: −21.2Suriname: −37.3Belize: −21.4Dominica: −21.2Saint Lucia: −19.8Saint Kitts & Nevis: −26.2Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −23.0Haiti: −45.2Latin America and Caribbean mean: −19.8Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: +2.4Ukraine: −8.2Kazakhstan: −19.9Georgia: −14.7Belarus: −20.5Azerbaijan: −30.2Armenia: −19.6Moldova: −18.1Uzbekistan: −29.6Kyrgyzstan: −30.9Tajikistan: −41.1Turkmenistan: −47.4Russia and Eurasia mean: −23.1Turkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: South Sudan, Turkmenistan, DR Congo. Highest: Japan, South Korea, United States.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−250+25+50+75Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 92.9, net position +87.30France (Europe): readiness 78.2, net position +59.60United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 77.2, net position +60.40Germany (Europe): readiness 82, net position +64.30Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 82.1, net position +65.90South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 82, net position +67.90China (China): readiness 75.2, net position +56.90Netherlands (Europe): readiness 74.4, net position +59.10Sweden (Europe): readiness 62.6, net position +48.20Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 71.7, net position +61.10Canada (North America): readiness 62.5, net position +54.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 49.5, net position +33.40Switzerland (Europe): readiness 67.6, net position +52.30Norway (Europe): readiness 46.8, net position +31.20Finland (Europe): readiness 56, net position +41.40Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 72.9, net position +55.80Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 68.2, net position +50.80Denmark (Europe): readiness 45.6, net position +32.40Spain (Europe): readiness 50.6, net position +32.70Italy (Europe): readiness 61.6, net position +38.90Belgium (Europe): readiness 61.4, net position +44.20New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 33.5, net position +17.10Austria (Europe): readiness 57.4, net position +39.90India (South Asia): readiness 52.6, net position +8.90Poland (Europe): readiness 42.9, net position +19.10Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 49.7, net position +2.40Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 41.9, net position +11.60Ireland (Europe): readiness 47.4, net position +29.00United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 33.7, net position +7.00Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.1, net position +6.20Portugal (Europe): readiness 37.7, net position +18.20Czechia (Europe): readiness 43.4, net position +18.80Estonia (Europe): readiness 30.1, net position +13.80Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 45.4, net position +17.50Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31, net position +3.00Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.5, net position −1.20Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 25.7, net position +13.20South Africa (Africa): readiness 34.8, net position −1.40Lithuania (Europe): readiness 30.1, net position +8.90Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.5, net position +6.50Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.4, net position −4.40Greece (Europe): readiness 29.7, net position +8.50Hungary (Europe): readiness 35.6, net position +12.90Slovenia (Europe): readiness 30.6, net position +7.20Romania (Europe): readiness 30.9, net position +4.70Slovakia (Europe): readiness 27.8, net position +2.70Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 28.1, net position −5.30Latvia (Europe): readiness 24.3, net position +4.30Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 32.4, net position −0.50Iceland (Europe): readiness 22.4, net position +5.40Croatia (Europe): readiness 23.3, net position +0.30Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.1, net position −8.20Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.2, net position −8.90Morocco (Africa): readiness 23.2, net position −7.80Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.4, net position −5.80Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.7, net position −9.90Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.3, net position −9.40Serbia (Europe): readiness 25.9, net position −0.30Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 24.8, net position −1.60Malta (Europe): readiness 21.8, net position +4.00Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 25.8, net position −4.50Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.1, net position −16.40Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.3, net position −5.80Cyprus (Europe): readiness 18.2, net position −0.90Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29.4, net position −10.30Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 16.7, net position −19.90Mauritius (Africa): readiness 15.2, net position −8.50Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 14.1, net position −15.70Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 21.2, net position −19.40Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.6, net position −7.10Tunisia (Africa): readiness 21.1, net position −12.30Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 14.7, net position −14.70Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 12.8, net position −18.70Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 14, net position −12.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position −23.10Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 12.4, net position −16.10Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 15.9, net position −22.80Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 13.5, net position −15.10Kenya (Africa): readiness 16.2, net position −14.20Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.6, net position −17.40Ghana (Africa): readiness 14.4, net position −21.70Algeria (Africa): readiness 12.7, net position −26.60Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 22.9, net position −20.50Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.2, net position −20.30Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 11.5, net position −30.20Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.7, net position −21.20Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 14.6, net position −29.10Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.6, net position −22.90Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 16.3, net position −19.60North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 12.3, net position −15.60Senegal (Africa): readiness 12.1, net position −22.20Montenegro (Europe): readiness 11.5, net position −12.20Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.3, net position −18.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.2, net position −16.30Albania (Europe): readiness 9.2, net position −19.70Botswana (Africa): readiness 8.8, net position −23.90Namibia (Africa): readiness 8.9, net position −25.70Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.2, net position −24.60Rwanda (Africa): readiness 11.9, net position −19.50Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 11.7, net position −29.60Monaco (Europe): readiness 10, net position −12.40Tanzania (Africa): readiness 10.9, net position −27.40Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 10.5, net position −20.40Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.2, net position −27.00Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.8, net position −26.80Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 12.1, net position −26.90El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.5, net position −21.00Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 9.8, net position −21.40Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8, net position −27.30Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7, net position −15.10Uganda (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position −25.80Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 8.9, net position −22.70Seychelles (Africa): readiness 6, net position −16.70Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 6, net position −15.50Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.5, net position −17.10Andorra (Europe): readiness 6.4, net position −17.20Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.7, net position −25.20Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.9, net position −28.30San Marino (Europe): readiness 5.8, net position −31.20Nepal (South Asia): readiness 8.4, net position −22.40Zambia (Africa): readiness 8.1, net position −34.60Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.2, net position −33.00Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 7.3, net position −30.90Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 5.7, net position −17.60Kosovo (Europe): readiness 7.3, net position −29.90Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7.7, net position −32.10Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 10.3, net position −9.00Maldives (South Asia): readiness 5.8, net position −20.80Angola (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position −38.10Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.7, net position −25.30Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 5.2, net position −38.10Cameroon (Africa): readiness 7, net position −30.70Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 5.7, net position −30.90Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.7, net position −22.90Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 8.9, net position −33.90North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.1, net position −25.00Mozambique (Africa): readiness 6.5, net position −31.00Benin (Africa): readiness 5.8, net position −23.10Togo (Africa): readiness 5.5, net position −25.90Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.6, net position −21.20Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.6, net position −37.30Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.4, net position −21.40Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 5.2, net position −41.10Gabon (Africa): readiness 5.2, net position −39.60Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 4.7, net position −37.30Madagascar (Africa): readiness 6.4, net position −29.10Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.2, net position −38.90Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.2, net position −21.20Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.2, net position −19.80Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4.2, net position −26.20Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 4.7, net position −39.10Malawi (Africa): readiness 6.1, net position −24.50Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 4, net position −23.00Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 6.5, net position −16.40Eswatini (Africa): readiness 4.7, net position −36.80Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 4.9, net position −33.80Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 4.6, net position −35.10Mauritania (Africa): readiness 4.5, net position −37.30Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 4, net position −47.40Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 3.9, net position −21.00Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 4.8, net position −37.00Lesotho (Africa): readiness 3.9, net position −37.30Mali (Africa): readiness 4.6, net position −31.00Gambia (Africa): readiness 4.1, net position −24.70Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 3.2, net position −23.30Djibouti (Africa): readiness 3.7, net position −25.20Congo (Africa): readiness 3.8, net position −43.10Guinea (Africa): readiness 3.9, net position −34.60Niger (Africa): readiness 4.2, net position −28.20Libya (Africa): readiness 4.2, net position −45.30Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 2.9, net position −32.00Liberia (Africa): readiness 3.4, net position −33.10Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 3.2, net position −21.40Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 3.1, net position −27.50DR Congo (Africa): readiness 3.6, net position −45.70São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 3.1, net position −21.30Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 2.7, net position −22.70Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 3, net position −44.50Sudan (Africa): readiness 3.7, net position −33.60Burundi (Africa): readiness 2.7, net position −23.90Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 2.3, net position −24.30Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 2.3, net position −22.60Comoros (Africa): readiness 2.4, net position −24.30Chad (Africa): readiness 2.2, net position −42.00Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 2.9, net position −20.00Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 2.2, net position −23.90Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 2, net position −23.00Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 2.4, net position −28.90Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 2.3, net position −45.20Eritrea (Africa): readiness 2, net position −35.30Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 1.9, net position −33.10Holy See (Europe): readiness 2.1, net position −42.70Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 1.8, net position −31.40Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 1.9, net position −33.60Somalia (Africa): readiness 1.8, net position −35.60Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 1.4, net position −34.50South Sudan (Africa): readiness 1.3, net position −47.50United StatesJapanSouth KoreaTurkmenistanDR CongoSouth Sudan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: research and contract research businesses built on long development cycles, and research position in nations without laboratories or evaluators.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+87.390.93.69387Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17.7 · Advanced
2South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+67.975.57.68285Artificial Intelligence 16 · Advanced
3JapanIndo-PacificGainer+65.973.17.38285Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · Advanced
4GermanyEuropeGainer+64.371.97.68286Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · Advanced
5SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+61.165.44.37289Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 · Established
6United KingdomEuropeGainer+60.466.05.67784Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established
7FranceEuropeGainer+59.667.07.37883Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · Established
8NetherlandsEuropeGainer+59.165.96.87484Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established
9ChinaChinaGainer+56.967.610.77577Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
10IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+55.862.46.67376Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 · Established
11CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+54.361.47.16381Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional
12SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+52.359.97.66885Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 · Transitional
13TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+50.859.08.26880Artificial Intelligence 12.3 · Established
14SwedenEuropeGainer+48.255.37.16385Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional
15BelgiumEuropeGainer+44.254.09.86177Artificial Intelligence 11 · Transitional
16FinlandEuropeGainer+41.449.17.75684Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · Foundational
17AustriaEuropeGainer+39.950.510.65778Artificial Intelligence 10 · Transitional
18ItalyEuropeGainer+38.952.713.86270Artificial Intelligence 11.3 · Transitional
19AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+33.442.18.75081Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational
20SpainEuropeGainer+32.744.511.95173Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational
21DenmarkEuropeGainer+32.440.88.44683Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
22NorwayEuropeGainer+31.241.810.64783Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent
23IrelandEuropeGainer+29.042.013.04777Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 · Foundational
24PolandEuropeGainer+19.136.617.44367Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational
25CzechiaEuropeGainer+18.837.018.24368Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies
  • Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
  • Robotics & Autonomous Systems
  • Research Talent & Knowledge Creation
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Innovation & Commercialisation
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Technology Adoption & Diffusion
  • Advanced Education
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Investment Attraction & Projection
Gain exposure

regional exposure (70%); internet users as a share of population (30%).

Loss exposure

Research and contract research businesses built on long development cycles, and research position in nations without laboratories or evaluators: regional exposure (70%); industry as a share of gdp (ranked) (30%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results