Capture test · S19 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

EHealth↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
49
net position above +10
Mixed
76
between the two
Losers
72
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+59
United States

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−200+20+40Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +58.6Canada: +56.0North America mean: +57.3United StatesCanadaEurope 42France: +44.4United Kingdom: +53.8Germany: +50.7Netherlands: +45.4Sweden: +46.6Switzerland: +41.5Norway: +41.4Finland: +42.9Denmark: +42.9Spain: +32.1Italy: +16.8Belgium: +35.5Austria: +32.0Poland: +20.3Ireland: +30.8Portugal: +14.8Czechia: +20.5Estonia: +18.1Luxembourg: +15.1Lithuania: +15.5Greece: +2.5Hungary: +14.6Slovenia: +9.4Romania: +0.9Slovakia: +3.7Latvia: +4.6Iceland: +14.8Croatia: −1.6Serbia: −3.9Bulgaria: −2.6Malta: +3.7Cyprus: −1.7Liechtenstein: −5.0North Macedonia: −16.5Montenegro: −19.4Albania: −21.6Monaco: −14.6Bosnia & Herzegovina: −30.1Andorra: −18.6San Marino: −21.3Kosovo: −21.9Holy See: −39.2Europe mean: +11.8United KingdomHoly SeeChina 1China: +17.6China mean: +17.6Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +29.5South Korea: +28.2Singapore: +32.2Australia: +53.1Taiwan: +39.3New Zealand: +38.3Malaysia: +12.3Thailand: +3.2Indonesia: +0.4Vietnam: −2.7Philippines: −1.8Mongolia: −8.5Brunei: −13.3Fiji: −18.0Cambodia: −16.8North Korea: −39.0Myanmar: −28.4Papua New Guinea: −13.2Laos: −19.6Samoa: −21.7Tonga: −23.8Timor-Leste: −21.3Vanuatu: −19.6Solomon Islands: −20.8Palau: −34.8Marshall Islands: −24.5Micronesia: −24.8Kiribati: −22.5Tuvalu: −31.0Nauru: −19.8Indo-Pacific mean: −6.3North KoreaPalauSouth Asia 8India: +9.7Pakistan: +1.5Sri Lanka: −12.9Bangladesh: −9.6Nepal: −13.8Maldives: −10.6Bhutan: −14.9Afghanistan: −6.1South Asia mean: −7.1Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +45.8Türkiye: +29.9United Arab Emirates: +36.6Saudi Arabia: +30.4Qatar: +26.6Egypt: +17.7Iran: +7.3Oman: +13.4Kuwait: +14.5Jordan: +14.0Bahrain: +10.5Iraq: +2.5Lebanon: −16.5Palestine: +3.0Syria: −12.9Yemen: −10.4Gulf and Middle East mean: +13.3Africa 53South Africa: +19.9Morocco: +4.8Mauritius: −5.1Tunisia: 0.0Nigeria: +2.7Kenya: +2.3Ghana: −1.6Algeria: −1.0Senegal: +2.1Botswana: −5.5Namibia: +0.1Rwanda: +2.7Tanzania: −0.1Ethiopia: −2.9Uganda: +3.6Côte d'Ivoire: +1.4Seychelles: −14.3Zambia: +1.3Cabo Verde: −12.5Angola: +1.6Cameroon: −1.5Zimbabwe: −4.8Mozambique: −0.9Benin: +1.3Togo: −10.3Gabon: −9.3Madagascar: −7.9Malawi: −7.5Eswatini: −7.4Sierra Leone: +0.5Mauritania: −12.3Burkina Faso: −4.3Lesotho: −14.6Mali: −2.8Gambia: −6.6Djibouti: −11.5Congo: −12.5Guinea: −10.4Niger: −2.0Libya: −12.1Liberia: −4.7DR Congo: −1.1São Tomé & Príncipe: −4.2Equatorial Guinea: −17.1Sudan: −6.4Burundi: −8.3Comoros: −17.0Chad: −2.6Guinea-Bissau: −5.4Eritrea: −13.9Central African Rep.: −10.9Somalia: −4.9South Sudan: −4.4Africa mean: −4.5Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +21.0Mexico: +23.7Chile: +19.3Argentina: +14.0Colombia: +5.7Peru: +2.8Uruguay: +10.4Costa Rica: +4.2Panama: −3.1Dominican Republic: −2.7Ecuador: −8.2Trinidad & Tobago: −12.2Jamaica: −8.5Cuba: −12.7Paraguay: −13.6El Salvador: −10.8Guatemala: −6.7Barbados: −15.8Bahamas: −12.1Bolivia: −13.9Honduras: −10.3Venezuela: −22.0Guyana: −18.5Nicaragua: −11.7Antigua & Barbuda: −22.1Grenada: −26.0Suriname: −16.2Belize: −11.2Dominica: −24.9Saint Lucia: −30.3Saint Kitts & Nevis: −25.7Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −26.6Haiti: −16.3Latin America and Caribbean mean: −8.5Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: +16.6Ukraine: −1.6Kazakhstan: +0.8Georgia: −8.6Belarus: −7.6Azerbaijan: −11.3Armenia: −15.5Moldova: −16.1Uzbekistan: −7.7Kyrgyzstan: −15.7Tajikistan: −8.4Turkmenistan: −23.4Russia and Eurasia mean: −8.2
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Holy See, North Korea, Palau. Highest: United Kingdom, Canada, United States.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20+40Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 82.7, net position +58.60France (Europe): readiness 83.5, net position +44.40United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 83.7, net position +53.80Germany (Europe): readiness 83.8, net position +50.70Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 83.4, net position +29.50South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 82.6, net position +28.20China (China): readiness 71.5, net position +17.60Netherlands (Europe): readiness 83.6, net position +45.40Sweden (Europe): readiness 81.1, net position +46.60Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 78.8, net position +32.20Canada (North America): readiness 80.4, net position +56.00Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 79.3, net position +53.10Switzerland (Europe): readiness 81.4, net position +41.50Norway (Europe): readiness 70.3, net position +41.40Finland (Europe): readiness 73.3, net position +42.90Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 74.7, net position +45.80Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 71.5, net position +39.30Denmark (Europe): readiness 78.7, net position +42.90Spain (Europe): readiness 71.1, net position +32.10Italy (Europe): readiness 68.5, net position +16.80Belgium (Europe): readiness 74.2, net position +35.50New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 63, net position +38.30Austria (Europe): readiness 69.8, net position +32.00India (South Asia): readiness 56.9, net position +9.70Poland (Europe): readiness 60.8, net position +20.30Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 58.3, net position +16.60Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 57.2, net position +29.90Ireland (Europe): readiness 63.1, net position +30.80United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 53.1, net position +36.60Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58.1, net position +21.00Portugal (Europe): readiness 57.3, net position +14.80Czechia (Europe): readiness 57.3, net position +20.50Estonia (Europe): readiness 53, net position +18.10Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 54.5, net position +12.30Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 50.8, net position +30.40Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53.5, net position +23.70Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 45.8, net position +15.10South Africa (Africa): readiness 56.9, net position +19.90Lithuania (Europe): readiness 51.6, net position +15.50Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.1, net position +3.20Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 47.1, net position +19.30Greece (Europe): readiness 47.3, net position +2.50Hungary (Europe): readiness 55.4, net position +14.60Slovenia (Europe): readiness 52.3, net position +9.40Romania (Europe): readiness 49, net position +0.90Slovakia (Europe): readiness 45.6, net position +3.70Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 48.1, net position +0.40Latvia (Europe): readiness 43.5, net position +4.60Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.4, net position −2.70Iceland (Europe): readiness 47.3, net position +14.80Croatia (Europe): readiness 41.7, net position −1.60Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 42.2, net position −1.60Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.2, net position +26.60Morocco (Africa): readiness 41.2, net position +4.80Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.5, net position +14.00Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 41.6, net position +5.70Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 43.5, net position +17.70Serbia (Europe): readiness 43.5, net position −3.90Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 42.7, net position −2.60Malta (Europe): readiness 39.7, net position +3.70Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 38.9, net position −1.80Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.6, net position +2.80Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 40.1, net position +10.40Cyprus (Europe): readiness 36.1, net position −1.70Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39, net position +7.30Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 38.7, net position +0.80Mauritius (Africa): readiness 35.9, net position −5.10Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32, net position +13.40Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 37.1, net position +1.50Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 36.1, net position +4.20Tunisia (Africa): readiness 38.2, net position 0.00Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.1, net position −8.60Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.4, net position +14.50Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 33.2, net position +14.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 33.5, net position +2.70Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.7, net position +10.50Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 31.8, net position −12.90Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 28.4, net position −5.00Kenya (Africa): readiness 33.9, net position +2.30Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.1, net position −3.10Ghana (Africa): readiness 32.1, net position −1.60Algeria (Africa): readiness 31.6, net position −1.00Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 35, net position −7.60Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.3, net position −2.70Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.3, net position −11.30Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.5, net position −8.20Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 33.3, net position −9.60Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.8, net position −12.20Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.5, net position −15.50North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 27.3, net position −16.50Senegal (Africa): readiness 31.1, net position +2.10Montenegro (Europe): readiness 25.9, net position −19.40Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.9, net position −16.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.1, net position −8.50Albania (Europe): readiness 22.7, net position −21.60Botswana (Africa): readiness 25, net position −5.50Namibia (Africa): readiness 24, net position +0.10Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.5, net position −12.70Rwanda (Africa): readiness 31.3, net position +2.70Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 28.3, net position −7.70Monaco (Europe): readiness 27.3, net position −14.60Tanzania (Africa): readiness 26.1, net position −0.10Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 23.1, net position −30.10Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23, net position −13.60Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24.1, net position −8.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 24.9, net position −2.90El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.9, net position −10.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22, net position −6.70Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22, net position −13.30Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22, net position −15.80Uganda (Africa): readiness 27.3, net position +3.60Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 21.5, net position +1.40Seychelles (Africa): readiness 21.6, net position −14.30Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.4, net position −12.10Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.7, net position −18.00Andorra (Europe): readiness 22.6, net position −18.60Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.8, net position −13.90Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.3, net position −10.30San Marino (Europe): readiness 20.8, net position −21.30Nepal (South Asia): readiness 20.2, net position −13.80Zambia (Africa): readiness 21.1, net position +1.30Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.1, net position −16.80Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 19.5, net position −15.70Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 18, net position −12.50Kosovo (Europe): readiness 18.5, net position −21.90Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.2, net position +2.50Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 21.1, net position −16.50Maldives (South Asia): readiness 19.2, net position −10.60Angola (Africa): readiness 16, net position +1.60Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19, net position −22.00Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.9, net position −18.50Cameroon (Africa): readiness 18.4, net position −1.50Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.6, net position −11.70Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.2, net position −22.10Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 19.5, net position −4.80North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.8, net position −39.00Mozambique (Africa): readiness 17.8, net position −0.90Benin (Africa): readiness 15.9, net position +1.30Togo (Africa): readiness 15, net position −10.30Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.1, net position −26.00Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.5, net position −16.20Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.9, net position −11.20Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 16.2, net position −8.40Gabon (Africa): readiness 16.1, net position −9.30Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 15.6, net position −14.90Madagascar (Africa): readiness 16.9, net position −7.90Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.1, net position −28.40Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.7, net position −24.90Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.9, net position −30.30Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.8, net position −25.70Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.8, net position −13.20Malawi (Africa): readiness 17.7, net position −7.50Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.6, net position −26.60Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.6, net position +3.00Eswatini (Africa): readiness 15.1, net position −7.40Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.3, net position −19.60Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position +0.50Mauritania (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −12.30Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 13.2, net position −23.40Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.1, net position −21.70Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 15.3, net position −4.30Lesotho (Africa): readiness 13.1, net position −14.60Mali (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position −2.80Gambia (Africa): readiness 14.9, net position −6.60Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.1, net position −23.80Djibouti (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position −11.50Congo (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position −12.50Guinea (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position −10.40Niger (Africa): readiness 12.6, net position −2.00Libya (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −12.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10, net position −21.30Liberia (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position −4.70Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.7, net position −19.60Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.8, net position −20.80DR Congo (Africa): readiness 12.4, net position −1.10São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 11.2, net position −4.20Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.3, net position −34.80Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 10.2, net position −17.10Sudan (Africa): readiness 10.3, net position −6.40Burundi (Africa): readiness 8.7, net position −8.30Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.8, net position −24.50Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.6, net position −24.80Comoros (Africa): readiness 8.5, net position −17.00Chad (Africa): readiness 7.3, net position −2.60Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.1, net position −12.90Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.6, net position −22.50Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.3, net position −31.00Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 7.6, net position −5.40Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.4, net position −16.30Eritrea (Africa): readiness 7.8, net position −13.90Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.2, net position −19.80Holy See (Europe): readiness 6.2, net position −39.20Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5.8, net position −10.90Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5, net position −10.40Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.8, net position −4.90Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 5.7, net position −6.10South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4.3, net position −4.40United StatesUnited KingdomCanadaNorth KoreaPalauHoly See
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: pension and long-term care liabilities in ageing populations, and the revenue of providers paid to treat preventable complications.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+58.674.615.98378Health System Capability 15.7 · Advanced
2CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+56.071.615.58080Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.8 · Advanced
3United KingdomEuropeGainer+53.869.715.98480Health System Capability 16.3 · Advanced
4AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+53.165.212.17982Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 · Advanced
5GermanyEuropeGainer+50.763.512.88485Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16.4 · Advanced
6SwedenEuropeGainer+46.656.610.08187Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.6 · Advanced
7IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+45.859.813.97572Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 · Established
8NetherlandsEuropeGainer+45.457.712.38484Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.6 · Advanced
9FranceEuropeGainer+44.460.716.38480Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 · Advanced
11DenmarkEuropeGainer+42.952.79.87987Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15 · Advanced
10FinlandEuropeGainer+42.955.112.17385Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established
12SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+41.553.812.28184Communications & Digital Infrastructure 15.9 · Advanced
13NorwayEuropeGainer+41.452.411.07085Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
14TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+39.357.618.37274Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established
15New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+38.352.514.16379Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
16United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+36.638.51.85364Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
17BelgiumEuropeGainer+35.553.718.27476Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 14.3 · Established
18SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+32.239.87.67987Biotechnology & Health Technologies 14.4 · Established
19SpainEuropeGainer+32.154.922.97170Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
20AustriaEuropeGainer+32.047.915.87080Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12.8 · Established
21IrelandEuropeGainer+30.848.417.66374Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
22Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastGainer+30.440.29.85159Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
23TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+29.948.418.55759Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
24JapanIndo-PacificGainer+29.544.414.98382Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16.3 · Advanced
25South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+28.241.613.48381Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.2 · Advanced

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Health System Capability
  • Social Infrastructure
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Labour & Employment
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
Gain exposure

regional exposure (40%); adult obesity rate (ranked) (40%); share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (20%).

Loss exposure

Pension and long-term care liabilities in ageing populations, and the revenue of providers paid to treat preventable complications: share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (70%); regional exposure (30%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results