Load test · S02 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

AEconomic and tradeScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.52
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−0.86
Congo
Lose a domain band
140
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.19
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.30Canada: −0.35North America mean: −0.32Europe 42France: −0.36United Kingdom: −0.43Germany: −0.34Netherlands: −0.40Sweden: −0.33Switzerland: −0.23Norway: −0.26Finland: −0.39Denmark: −0.32Spain: −0.47Italy: −0.45Belgium: −0.51Austria: −0.48Poland: −0.41Ireland: −0.47Portugal: −0.53Czechia: −0.37Estonia: −0.44Luxembourg: −0.40Lithuania: −0.47Greece: −0.62Hungary: −0.58Slovenia: −0.60Romania: −0.46Slovakia: −0.59Latvia: −0.48Iceland: −0.49Croatia: −0.60Serbia: −0.55Bulgaria: −0.40Malta: −0.56Cyprus: −0.67Liechtenstein: −0.78North Macedonia: −0.58Montenegro: −0.70Albania: −0.60Monaco: −0.83Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.54Andorra: −0.62San Marino: −0.79Kosovo: −0.61Holy See: −0.61Europe mean: −0.51SwitzerlandMonacoChina 1China: −0.25China mean: −0.25Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.24South Korea: −0.26Singapore: −0.31Australia: −0.27Taiwan: −0.28New Zealand: −0.27Malaysia: −0.40Thailand: −0.38Indonesia: −0.27Vietnam: −0.55Philippines: −0.28Mongolia: −0.59Brunei: −0.36Fiji: −0.49Cambodia: −0.50North Korea: −0.62Myanmar: −0.45Papua New Guinea: −0.45Laos: −0.67Samoa: −0.46Tonga: −0.45Timor-Leste: −0.32Vanuatu: −0.49Solomon Islands: −0.33Palau: −0.69Marshall Islands: −0.59Micronesia: −0.39Kiribati: −0.46Tuvalu: −0.57Nauru: −0.71Indo-Pacific mean: −0.44South Asia 8India: −0.32Pakistan: −0.59Sri Lanka: −0.59Bangladesh: −0.45Nepal: −0.45Maldives: −0.79Bhutan: −0.69Afghanistan: −0.39South Asia mean: −0.53Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.24Türkiye: −0.28United Arab Emirates: −0.28Saudi Arabia: −0.16Qatar: −0.30Egypt: −0.44Iran: −0.38Oman: −0.44Kuwait: −0.26Jordan: −0.51Bahrain: −0.63Iraq: −0.31Lebanon: −0.73Palestine: −0.51Syria: −0.63Yemen: −0.61Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.42Saudi ArabiaAfrica 53South Africa: −0.43Morocco: −0.52Mauritius: −0.45Tunisia: −0.60Nigeria: −0.37Kenya: −0.48Ghana: −0.68Algeria: −0.34Senegal: −0.57Botswana: −0.39Namibia: −0.49Rwanda: −0.50Tanzania: −0.48Ethiopia: −0.51Uganda: −0.58Côte d'Ivoire: −0.53Seychelles: −0.69Zambia: −0.72Cabo Verde: −0.71Angola: −0.64Cameroon: −0.44Zimbabwe: −0.78Mozambique: −0.76Benin: −0.58Togo: −0.68Gabon: −0.76Madagascar: −0.55Malawi: −0.70Eswatini: −0.63Sierra Leone: −0.64Mauritania: −0.80Burkina Faso: −0.67Lesotho: −0.54Mali: −0.54Gambia: −0.79Djibouti: −0.74Congo: −0.86Guinea: −0.67Niger: −0.54Libya: −0.53Liberia: −0.57DR Congo: −0.64São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.73Equatorial Guinea: −0.57Sudan: −0.86Burundi: −0.76Comoros: −0.43Chad: −0.65Guinea-Bissau: −0.65Eritrea: −0.74Central African Rep.: −0.60Somalia: −0.81South Sudan: −0.78Africa mean: −0.62CongoSudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.38Mexico: −0.41Chile: −0.31Argentina: −0.52Colombia: −0.41Peru: −0.31Uruguay: −0.41Costa Rica: −0.48Panama: −0.52Dominican Republic: −0.44Ecuador: −0.58Trinidad & Tobago: −0.44Jamaica: −0.63Cuba: −0.53Paraguay: −0.42El Salvador: −0.78Guatemala: −0.38Barbados: −0.58Bahamas: −0.63Bolivia: −0.63Honduras: −0.55Venezuela: −0.60Guyana: −0.72Nicaragua: −0.54Antigua & Barbuda: −0.77Grenada: −0.76Suriname: −0.71Belize: −0.77Dominica: −0.69Saint Lucia: −0.75Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.69Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.70Haiti: −0.47Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.56Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.16Ukraine: −0.44Kazakhstan: −0.25Georgia: −0.47Belarus: −0.54Azerbaijan: −0.33Armenia: −0.57Moldova: −0.38Uzbekistan: −0.25Kyrgyzstan: −0.45Tajikistan: −0.43Turkmenistan: −0.30Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.38Russia
  • Region mean
Lowest: Congo, Sudan, Monaco. Highest: Switzerland, Russia, Saudi Arabia.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.30France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.36United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.43Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.34Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.24South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.26China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.25Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.40Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.33Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.31Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.35Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.27Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.23Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.26Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.39Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.24Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.28Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.32Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.47Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.45Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.51New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.27Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.48India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.32Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.41Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.16Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.28Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.47United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.28Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.38Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.53Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.37Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.44Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.40Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.16Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.41Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.40South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.43Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.47Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.38Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.31Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.62Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.58Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.60Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.46Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.59Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.27Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.48Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.55Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.49Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.60Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.44Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.30Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.52Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.52Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.41Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.44Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.55Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.40Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.56Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.28Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.31Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.41Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.67Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.38Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.25Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.45Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.44Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.59Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.48Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.60Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.47Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.26Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.51Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.37Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.63Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.59Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.78Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.48Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.52Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.68Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.34Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.54Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.44Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.33Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.58Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.45Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.44Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.57North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.58Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.57Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.70Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.38Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.63Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.60Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.39Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.49Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.53Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.50Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.25Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.83Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.48Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.54Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.42Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.59Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.51El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.78Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.38Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.36Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.58Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.58Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.53Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.69Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.63Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.49Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.62Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.63Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.55San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.79Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.45Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.72Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.50Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.45Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.71Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.61Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.31Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.73Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.79Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.64Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.60Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.72Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.44Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.54Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.77Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.78North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.62Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.76Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.58Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.68Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.76Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.71Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.77Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.43Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.76Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.69Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.55Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.45Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.69Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.75Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.69Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.45Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.70Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.70Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.51Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.63Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.67Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.64Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.80Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.30Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.46Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.67Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.54Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.54Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.79Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.45Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.74Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.86Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.67Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.54Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.53Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.32Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.57Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.49Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.33DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.64São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.73Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.69Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.57Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.86Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.76Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.59Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.39Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.43Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.65Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.63Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.46Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.57Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.65Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.47Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.74Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.71Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.61Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.60Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.61Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.81Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.39South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.78SwitzerlandRussiaSaudi ArabiaMonacoCongoSudan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Financial Strength

Production & Innovation

Governance & Integrity

Trade & Investment

Human Capital

Strategic Infrastructure

Information & Influence

Critical Technology

National Security

−1.15

−0.81

−0.72

−0.72

−0.36

−0.35

−0.32

−0.24

0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
CongoAfricaHigh 0.843.192.33−0.86−26.9▼ 723 · 5d15%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.9 · Inception
SudanAfricaHigh 0.782.611.75−0.86−32.8▼ 313 · 1d8%Financial Regulation & Integrity 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 1.005.915.08−0.83−14.0▼ 718 · 2d32%Economic Output & Productivity 3.5 · Nascent
SomaliaAfricaHigh 0.851.620.81−0.81−49.8▼ 147%Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 0 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaHigh 0.793.582.79−0.80−22.3▼ 517 · 3d17%Financial System Depth & Access 2 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.915.034.24−0.79−15.7▼ 412 · 2d27%Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaHigh 0.854.623.83−0.79−17.1▼ 32123%Economic Output & Productivity 2.5 · Inception
GambiaAfricaHigh 0.793.322.53−0.79−23.8▼ 415 · 5d16%Economic Output & Productivity 0.5 · Inception
LiechtensteinEuropeHigh 1.007.226.44−0.78−10.8▼ 417 · 5d36%Monetary & Currency Capability 3.4 · Nascent
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.835.684.89−0.78−13.8▼ 420 · 4d24%Monetary & Currency Capability 3.4 · Nascent
ZimbabweAfricaHigh 0.734.343.56−0.78−18.0▼ 216 · 2d14%Monetary & Currency Capability 1.1 · Inception
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.941.380.59−0.78−57.1015%Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 0 · Inception
Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.844.363.59−0.77−17.7▼ 115 · 2d24%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.834.033.26−0.77−19.1▼ 412 · 2d22%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception
MozambiqueAfricaHigh 0.774.123.35−0.76−18.6▼ 417 · 1d19%Economic Output & Productivity 2.6 · Inception
GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.814.043.28−0.76−18.7▼ 514 · 2d22%Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception
GabonAfricaHigh 0.773.943.18−0.76−19.2▼ 713 · 1d18%Economic Output & Productivity 2.1 · Inception
BurundiAfricaHigh 0.732.481.72−0.76−30.6▼ 417 · 3d12%Economic Output & Productivity 0.1 · Inception
Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.803.853.10−0.75−19.5▼ 417 · 2d21%Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.743.202.46−0.74−23.1▼ 520 · 2d16%Economic Output & Productivity 0.6 · Inception
EritreaAfricaHigh 0.732.011.28−0.74−36.607 · 1d7%Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.674.663.92−0.73−15.7▼ 322 · 2d13%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.2 · Inception
São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaHigh 0.732.852.12−0.73−25.7▼ 220 · 2d16%Investment Attraction & Projection 0.1 · Inception
ZambiaAfricaHigh 0.764.934.21−0.72−14.6▼ 31723%Economic Output & Productivity 3.2 · Nascent
GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.774.533.81−0.72−15.9▼ 215 · 1d23%Economic Output & Productivity 2.7 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 63 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Financial Infrastructure· Medium
  • Health System Capability· Medium
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • Monetary & Currency Capability· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Financial System Depth & Access· High
  • Financial Regulation & Integrity· High
  • Financial Stability & Crisis Management· High
  • Economic Output & Productivity· High
  • Labour & Employment· High
  • Investment Attraction & Projection· High
Buffers
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Monetary & Currency Capability
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
  • Financial Stability & Crisis Management
  • Financial Regulation & Integrity
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

regional exposure (30%); public debt relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); few months of imports covered by reserves (ranked) (20%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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