Load test · S06 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

CEnergy, climate and resourcesScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.44
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.31
Sudan
Lose a domain band
133
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.20
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1.2−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.20Canada: −0.20North America mean: −0.20Europe 42France: −0.24United Kingdom: −0.19Germany: −0.25Netherlands: −0.24Sweden: −0.23Switzerland: −0.17Norway: −0.15Finland: −0.24Denmark: −0.27Spain: −0.30Italy: −0.27Belgium: −0.33Austria: −0.29Poland: −0.30Ireland: −0.30Portugal: −0.28Czechia: −0.30Estonia: −0.32Luxembourg: −0.34Lithuania: −0.33Greece: −0.33Hungary: −0.30Slovenia: −0.33Romania: −0.29Slovakia: −0.35Latvia: −0.30Iceland: −0.21Croatia: −0.32Serbia: −0.25Bulgaria: −0.30Malta: −0.45Cyprus: −0.44Liechtenstein: −0.28North Macedonia: −0.41Montenegro: −0.38Albania: −0.31Monaco: −0.29Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.33Andorra: −0.35San Marino: −0.39Kosovo: −0.46Holy See: −0.56Europe mean: −0.31SwitzerlandNorwayChina 1China: −0.29China mean: −0.29Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.16South Korea: −0.23Singapore: −0.24Australia: −0.21Taiwan: −0.31New Zealand: −0.20Malaysia: −0.24Thailand: −0.24Indonesia: −0.27Vietnam: −0.34Philippines: −0.29Mongolia: −0.37Brunei: −0.31Fiji: −0.32Cambodia: −0.29North Korea: −0.62Myanmar: −0.38Papua New Guinea: −0.56Laos: −0.66Samoa: −0.72Tonga: −0.63Timor-Leste: −0.73Vanuatu: −0.47Solomon Islands: −0.27Palau: −0.35Marshall Islands: −0.35Micronesia: −0.85Kiribati: −0.86Tuvalu: −0.36Nauru: −0.52Indo-Pacific mean: −0.41JapanSouth Asia 8India: −0.40Pakistan: −0.80Sri Lanka: −0.54Bangladesh: −0.52Nepal: −0.49Maldives: −0.72Bhutan: −0.41Afghanistan: −0.99South Asia mean: −0.61Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.36Türkiye: −0.41United Arab Emirates: −0.40Saudi Arabia: −0.39Qatar: −0.45Egypt: −0.77Iran: −1.00Oman: −0.52Kuwait: −0.50Jordan: −0.53Bahrain: −0.62Iraq: −0.54Lebanon: −0.61Palestine: −1.14Syria: −1.07Yemen: −1.15Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.65Africa 53South Africa: −0.44Morocco: −0.47Mauritius: −0.41Tunisia: −0.57Nigeria: −0.77Kenya: −0.98Ghana: −0.63Algeria: −0.90Senegal: −0.96Botswana: −0.49Namibia: −0.47Rwanda: −0.85Tanzania: −0.73Ethiopia: −0.88Uganda: −0.78Côte d'Ivoire: −0.71Seychelles: −0.53Zambia: −0.59Cabo Verde: −0.61Angola: −0.87Cameroon: −0.85Zimbabwe: −0.97Mozambique: −0.71Benin: −1.13Togo: −1.13Gabon: −0.52Madagascar: −0.97Malawi: −0.76Eswatini: −0.62Sierra Leone: −1.00Mauritania: −1.07Burkina Faso: −0.70Lesotho: −0.61Mali: −0.58Gambia: −0.76Djibouti: −1.11Congo: −0.92Guinea: −0.94Niger: −1.21Libya: −0.64Liberia: −0.80DR Congo: −0.65São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.86Equatorial Guinea: −0.89Sudan: −1.31Burundi: −0.79Comoros: −1.06Chad: −0.69Guinea-Bissau: −0.87Eritrea: −0.92Central African Rep.: −0.51Somalia: −1.17South Sudan: −0.87Africa mean: −0.80NigerSudanSomaliaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.19Mexico: −0.32Chile: −0.21Argentina: −0.65Colombia: −0.21Peru: −0.19Uruguay: −0.20Costa Rica: −0.28Panama: −0.30Dominican Republic: −0.41Ecuador: −0.36Trinidad & Tobago: −0.36Jamaica: −0.37Cuba: −0.88Paraguay: −0.27El Salvador: −0.45Guatemala: −0.32Barbados: −0.42Bahamas: −0.44Bolivia: −0.39Honduras: −0.38Venezuela: −0.77Guyana: −0.38Nicaragua: −0.31Antigua & Barbuda: −0.53Grenada: −0.71Suriname: −0.26Belize: −0.35Dominica: −0.45Saint Lucia: −0.68Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.64Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.85Haiti: −0.89Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.44Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.18Ukraine: −0.34Kazakhstan: −0.30Georgia: −0.36Belarus: −0.43Azerbaijan: −0.37Armenia: −0.47Moldova: −0.38Uzbekistan: −0.39Kyrgyzstan: −0.41Tajikistan: −0.65Turkmenistan: −0.70Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.42
  • Region mean
Lowest: Sudan, Niger, Somalia. Highest: Switzerland, Japan, Norway.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1.3−1−0.8−0.5−0.30Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.20France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.24United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.19Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.25Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.16South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.23China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.29Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.24Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.23Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.24Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.20Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.21Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.17Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.15Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.24Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.36Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.31Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.27Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.30Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.27Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.33New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.20Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.29India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.40Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.30Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.18Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.41Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.30United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.40Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.19Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.28Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.30Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.32Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.24Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.39Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.32Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.34South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.44Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.33Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.24Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.21Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.33Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.30Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.33Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.29Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.35Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.27Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.30Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.34Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.21Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.32Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.34Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.45Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.47Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.65Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.21Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.77Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.25Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.30Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.45Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.29Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.19Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.20Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.44Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −1.00Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.30Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.41Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.52Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.80Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.28Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.57Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.36Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.50Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.53Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.77Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.62Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.54Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.28Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.98Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.30Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.63Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.90Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.43Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.41Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.37Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.36Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.52Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.36Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.47North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.41Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.96Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.38Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.38Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.37Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.31Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.49Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.47Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.88Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.85Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.39Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.29Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.73Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.33Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.27Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.37Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.88El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.45Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.32Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.31Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.42Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.78Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.71Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.53Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.44Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.32Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.35Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.39Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.38San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.39Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.49Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.59Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.29Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.41Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.61Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.46Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.54Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.61Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.72Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.87Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.77Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.38Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.85Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.31Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.53Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.97North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.62Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.71Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −1.13Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −1.13Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.71Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.26Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.35Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.65Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.52Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.41Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.97Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.38Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.45Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.68Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.64Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.56Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.76Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.85Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −1.14Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.62Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.66Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −1.00Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −1.07Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.70Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.72Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.70Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.61Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.58Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.76Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.63Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −1.11Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.92Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.94Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −1.21Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.64Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.73Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.80Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.47Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.27DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.65São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.86Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.35Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.89Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −1.31Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.79Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.35Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.85Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −1.06Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.69Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −1.07Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.86Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.36Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.87Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.89Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.92Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.52Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.56Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.51Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −1.15Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −1.17Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.99South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.87JapanSwitzerlandNorwayNigerSudanSomalia
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Financial Strength

Strategic Infrastructure

Governance & Integrity

Human Capital

Information & Influence

Trade & Investment

Production & Innovation

National Security

Critical Technology

−0.68

−0.66

−0.64

−0.63

−0.60

−0.58

−0.51

−0.22

−0.20

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
SudanAfricaHigh 0.972.611.30−1.31−50.0▼ 723 · 3d12%Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception
NigerAfricaHigh 0.943.071.86−1.21−39.5▼ 1031 · 6d15%Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception
SomaliaAfricaHigh 0.961.620.45−1.17−72.0▼ 248%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
YemenGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.941.620.47−1.15−70.8▼ 168%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
PalestineGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.893.722.57−1.14−30.8▼ 1027 · 4d16%Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
BeninAfricaHigh 0.924.092.96−1.13−27.7▼ 1429 · 4d20%Energy Infrastructure 1.2 · Inception
TogoAfricaHigh 0.924.052.93−1.13−27.8▼ 1528 · 1d20%Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.903.202.09−1.11−34.8▼ 1029 · 6d18%Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
MauritaniaAfricaHigh 0.853.582.51−1.07−30.0▼ 830 · 4d18%Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
SyriaGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.802.221.16−1.07−48.0▼ 519 · 2d10%Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception
ComorosAfricaHigh 0.832.291.23−1.06−46.4▼ 521 · 3d12%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
IranGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.938.177.16−1.00−12.3▼ 524 · 3d31%Monetary & Currency Capability 4.1 · Nascent
Sierra LeoneAfricaHigh 0.803.592.59−1.00−27.9▼ 520 · 6d17%Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
AfghanistanSouth AsiaHigh 0.801.460.47−0.99−67.8099%Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 0 · Inception
KenyaAfricaHigh 0.897.186.19−0.98−13.7▼ 92630%Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
ZimbabweAfricaHigh 0.764.343.36−0.97−22.5▼ 817 · 3d18%Monetary & Currency Capability 1.1 · Inception
MadagascarAfricaHigh 0.773.902.94−0.97−24.8▼ 715 · 1d19%Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
SenegalAfricaHigh 0.876.425.45−0.96−15.0▼ 1030 · 2d30%Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent
GuineaAfricaHigh 0.743.152.20−0.94−30.0▼ 524 · 7d15%Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
CongoAfricaHigh 0.713.192.27−0.92−28.7▼ 329 · 5d15%Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
EritreaAfricaHigh 0.692.011.09−0.92−45.9▼ 312 · 1d10%Monetary & Currency Capability 0.1 · Inception
AlgeriaAfricaHigh 0.846.966.05−0.90−13.0▼ 827 · 4d31%Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3 · Nascent
Equatorial GuineaAfricaHigh 0.692.801.91−0.89−31.8027 · 4d15%Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.662.031.14−0.89−43.7▼ 31010%Internal Security & Order 0.2 · Inception
CubaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.745.955.06−0.88−14.9▼ 1021 · 3d24%Monetary & Currency Capability 1.6 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Agriculture & Food Infrastructure· High
  • Energy Infrastructure· High
  • Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure· High
  • Early Childhood Development· High
  • Population Health· High
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks· High
  • Internal Security & Order· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • Monetary & Currency Capability· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics· High
Buffers
  • Agriculture & Food Infrastructure
  • Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

staple foods among the top five imports (35%); regional exposure (30%); little renewable water per head (ranked) (20%); few months of imports covered by reserves (ranked) (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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