Load test · S09 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

DTechnology and infrastructureScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.63
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−0.95
North Korea
Lose a domain band
158
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.26
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.37Canada: −0.49North America mean: −0.43United StatesEurope 42France: −0.43United Kingdom: −0.44Germany: −0.45Netherlands: −0.47Sweden: −0.48Switzerland: −0.51Norway: −0.54Finland: −0.47Denmark: −0.57Spain: −0.59Italy: −0.58Belgium: −0.61Austria: −0.60Poland: −0.60Ireland: −0.67Portugal: −0.66Czechia: −0.64Estonia: −0.61Luxembourg: −0.75Lithuania: −0.68Greece: −0.71Hungary: −0.70Slovenia: −0.71Romania: −0.71Slovakia: −0.73Latvia: −0.72Iceland: −0.77Croatia: −0.74Serbia: −0.75Bulgaria: −0.75Malta: −0.82Cyprus: −0.83Liechtenstein: −0.73North Macedonia: −0.83Montenegro: −0.85Albania: −0.81Monaco: −0.85Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.85Andorra: −0.73San Marino: −0.67Kosovo: −0.83Holy See: −0.67Europe mean: −0.67China 1China: −0.43China mean: −0.43Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.44South Korea: −0.45Singapore: −0.48Australia: −0.49Taiwan: −0.58New Zealand: −0.63Malaysia: −0.72Thailand: −0.75Indonesia: −0.68Vietnam: −0.67Philippines: −0.80Mongolia: −0.80Brunei: −0.82Fiji: −0.81Cambodia: −0.74North Korea: −0.95Myanmar: −0.78Papua New Guinea: −0.62Laos: −0.76Samoa: −0.72Tonga: −0.69Timor-Leste: −0.65Vanuatu: −0.67Solomon Islands: −0.64Palau: −0.62Marshall Islands: −0.73Micronesia: −0.66Kiribati: −0.75Tuvalu: −0.71Nauru: −0.77Indo-Pacific mean: −0.69North KoreaSouth Asia 8India: −0.41Pakistan: −0.44Sri Lanka: −0.56Bangladesh: −0.54Nepal: −0.61Maldives: −0.70Bhutan: −0.65Afghanistan: −0.42South Asia mean: −0.54Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.47Türkiye: −0.65United Arab Emirates: −0.66Saudi Arabia: −0.70Qatar: −0.78Egypt: −0.72Iran: −0.72Oman: −0.81Kuwait: −0.88Jordan: −0.85Bahrain: −0.85Iraq: −0.85Lebanon: −0.85Palestine: −0.87Syria: −0.68Yemen: −0.58Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.74KuwaitPalestineAfrica 53South Africa: −0.57Morocco: −0.65Mauritius: −0.65Tunisia: −0.62Nigeria: −0.49Kenya: −0.50Ghana: −0.61Algeria: −0.63Senegal: −0.61Botswana: −0.69Namibia: −0.63Rwanda: −0.48Tanzania: −0.44Ethiopia: −0.42Uganda: −0.43Côte d'Ivoire: −0.55Seychelles: −0.67Zambia: −0.52Cabo Verde: −0.65Angola: −0.55Cameroon: −0.56Zimbabwe: −0.56Mozambique: −0.45Benin: −0.50Togo: −0.53Gabon: −0.62Madagascar: −0.47Malawi: −0.45Eswatini: −0.57Sierra Leone: −0.45Mauritania: −0.52Burkina Faso: −0.43Lesotho: −0.52Mali: −0.49Gambia: −0.55Djibouti: −0.68Congo: −0.52Guinea: −0.46Niger: −0.47Libya: −0.70Liberia: −0.45DR Congo: −0.47São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.60Equatorial Guinea: −0.61Sudan: −0.53Burundi: −0.41Comoros: −0.49Chad: −0.38Guinea-Bissau: −0.47Eritrea: −0.44Central African Rep.: −0.38Somalia: −0.49South Sudan: −0.42Africa mean: −0.53ChadCentral African Rep.Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.55Mexico: −0.58Chile: −0.61Argentina: −0.62Colombia: −0.61Peru: −0.63Uruguay: −0.67Costa Rica: −0.67Panama: −0.68Dominican Republic: −0.70Ecuador: −0.67Trinidad & Tobago: −0.69Jamaica: −0.69Cuba: −0.66Paraguay: −0.66El Salvador: −0.66Guatemala: −0.63Barbados: −0.66Bahamas: −0.71Bolivia: −0.65Honduras: −0.64Venezuela: −0.66Guyana: −0.58Nicaragua: −0.60Antigua & Barbuda: −0.64Grenada: −0.63Suriname: −0.62Belize: −0.62Dominica: −0.61Saint Lucia: −0.63Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.62Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.62Haiti: −0.51Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.64Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.58Ukraine: −0.67Kazakhstan: −0.82Georgia: −0.81Belarus: −0.82Azerbaijan: −0.80Armenia: −0.81Moldova: −0.81Uzbekistan: −0.84Kyrgyzstan: −0.86Tajikistan: −0.71Turkmenistan: −0.63Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.76
  • Region mean
Lowest: North Korea, Kuwait, Palestine. Highest: Chad, Central African Rep., United States.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.37France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.43United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.44Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.45Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.44South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.45China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.43Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.47Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.48Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.48Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.49Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.49Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.51Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.54Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.47Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.47Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.58Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.57Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.59Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.58Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.61New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.63Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.60India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.41Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.60Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.58Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.65Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.67United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.66Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.55Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.66Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.64Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.61Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.72Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.70Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.58Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.75South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.57Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.68Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.75Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.61Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.71Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.70Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.71Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.71Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.73Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.68Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.72Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.67Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.77Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.74Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.67Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.78Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.65Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.62Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.61Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.72Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.75Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.75Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.82Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.80Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.63Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.67Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.83Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.72Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.82Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.65Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.81Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.44Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.67Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.62Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.81Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.88Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.85Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.49Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.85Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.56Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.73Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.50Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.68Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.61Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.63Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.82Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.70Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.80Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.67Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.54Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.69Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.81North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.83Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.61Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.85Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.81Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.69Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.81Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.69Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.63Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.66Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.48Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.84Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.85Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.44Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.85Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.66Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.80Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.42El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.66Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.63Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.82Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.66Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.43Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.55Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.67Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.71Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.81Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.73Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.65Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.64San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.67Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.61Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.52Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.74Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.86Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.65Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.83Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.85Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.85Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.70Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.55Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.66Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.58Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.56Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.60Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.64Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.56North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.95Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.45Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.50Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.53Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.63Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.62Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.62Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.71Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.62Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.65Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.47Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.78Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.61Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.63Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.62Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.62Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.45Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.62Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.87Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.57Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.76Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.45Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.52Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.63Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.72Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.43Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.52Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.49Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.55Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.69Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.68Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.52Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.46Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.47Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.70Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.65Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.45Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.67Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.64DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.47São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.60Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.62Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.61Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.53Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.41Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.73Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.66Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.49Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.38Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.68Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.75Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.71Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.47Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.51Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.44Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.77Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.67Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.38Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.58Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.49Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.42South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.42United StatesKuwaitNorth KoreaPalestineChadCentral African Rep.
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Information & Influence

Governance & Integrity

Financial Strength

National Security

Critical Technology

Strategic Infrastructure

Trade & Investment

Production & Innovation

Human Capital

−1.06

−0.99

−0.92

−0.78

−0.61

−0.47

−0.45

−0.40

0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 1.004.263.31−0.95−22.3▼ 925 · 3d18%Justice System & Fundamental Rights 0 · Inception
KuwaitGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.897.516.63−0.88−11.7▼ 425 · 1d22%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception
PalestineGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.853.722.84−0.87−23.5▼ 817 · 3d11%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.844.773.91−0.86−18.1▼ 420 · 1d14%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
JordanGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.887.506.65−0.85−11.3▼ 222 · 1d23%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
BahrainGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.887.326.47−0.85−11.6▼ 424 · 1d23%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.876.355.49−0.85−13.5▼ 216 · 3d21%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 0.975.915.07−0.85−14.3▼ 416 · 2d21%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.845.804.95−0.85−14.7▼ 514 · 4d18%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception
IraqGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.804.693.84−0.85−18.2▼ 423 · 1d14%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.804.663.81−0.85−18.3▼ 524 · 3d15%Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.825.925.08−0.84−14.3▼ 425 · 3d17%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.918.517.68−0.83−9.8024 · 2d27%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.856.615.78−0.83−12.6▼ 119 · 2d21%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.834.703.87−0.83−17.6▼ 41714%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.928.898.07−0.82−9.2019 · 4d30%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception
KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.878.147.32−0.82−10.1▼ 225 · 3d25%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.3 · Inception
BelarusRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.856.906.09−0.82−11.8▼ 221 · 5d25%Justice System & Fundamental Rights 1.3 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.845.604.77−0.82−14.7▼ 321 · 2d18%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
OmanGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.858.037.22−0.81−10.1▼ 121 · 4d25%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.1 · Inception
GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.847.556.74−0.81−10.7▼ 123 · 2d24%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.3 · Inception
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.836.655.84−0.81−12.2011 · 3d22%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.5 · Inception
MoldovaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.846.345.53−0.81−12.8020 · 4d22%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
AlbaniaEuropeHigh 0.816.135.32−0.81−13.2▼ 411 · 5d18%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.825.164.36−0.81−15.6▼ 519 · 1d15%Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 64 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies· High
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure· Medium
  • Financial Infrastructure· Medium
  • Intelligence & Assessment· High
  • Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations· High
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks· High
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication· High
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • Financial Stability & Crisis Management· High
  • Digital & Services Trade· Medium
Buffers
  • Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
  • Quantum Technologies
  • Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Digital & AI Competence

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

regional exposure (40%); internet users as a share of population (35%); services as a share of gdp (25%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

0 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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