Capture test · S12 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

AEconomic and trade↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
35
net position above +10
Mixed
82
between the two
Losers
80
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+37
Singapore

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−40−200+20Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +15.0Canada: +13.0North America mean: +14.0Europe 42France: +26.1United Kingdom: +36.4Germany: +22.5Netherlands: +32.4Sweden: +30.9Switzerland: +29.7Norway: +14.0Finland: +22.0Denmark: +21.8Spain: +11.9Italy: +8.0Belgium: +29.6Austria: +18.7Poland: +8.0Ireland: +17.0Portugal: +9.9Czechia: +9.3Estonia: +13.3Luxembourg: +20.1Lithuania: +9.4Greece: +6.9Hungary: +10.3Slovenia: +6.8Romania: −2.1Slovakia: +4.7Latvia: +6.9Iceland: +6.6Croatia: +2.3Serbia: −1.5Bulgaria: −1.7Malta: +9.4Cyprus: +7.6Liechtenstein: −18.9North Macedonia: −7.5Montenegro: −1.8Albania: −14.3Monaco: −11.7Bosnia & Herzegovina: −15.3Andorra: −10.3San Marino: −31.1Kosovo: −23.8Holy See: −30.1Europe mean: +6.7United KingdomNetherlandsChina 1China: +4.4China mean: +4.4Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +23.1South Korea: +31.1Singapore: +36.9Australia: +21.1Taiwan: +30.1New Zealand: +20.1Malaysia: +22.7Thailand: +14.9Indonesia: +0.3Vietnam: +14.4Philippines: +6.2Mongolia: −15.8Brunei: −20.6Fiji: +2.5Cambodia: −17.7North Korea: −17.6Myanmar: −32.7Papua New Guinea: −27.2Laos: −19.4Samoa: −6.3Tonga: −9.5Timor-Leste: −20.9Vanuatu: −6.3Solomon Islands: −14.3Palau: −9.6Marshall Islands: −7.9Micronesia: −8.0Kiribati: −11.6Tuvalu: −10.4Nauru: −19.3Indo-Pacific mean: −1.7SingaporeSouth Asia 8India: +16.3Pakistan: +4.0Sri Lanka: −3.4Bangladesh: −12.1Nepal: −0.3Maldives: +6.4Bhutan: −22.4Afghanistan: −15.2South Asia mean: −3.3Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +20.7Türkiye: +11.4United Arab Emirates: +15.4Saudi Arabia: +1.3Qatar: −7.3Egypt: −3.5Iran: −15.2Oman: −2.0Kuwait: −14.4Jordan: +4.1Bahrain: −9.0Iraq: −27.8Lebanon: +4.6Palestine: −6.8Syria: −11.2Yemen: −28.8Gulf and Middle East mean: −4.3Africa 53South Africa: +16.5Morocco: +12.7Mauritius: +7.7Tunisia: +1.8Nigeria: −4.7Kenya: +5.0Ghana: −2.9Algeria: −18.3Senegal: −4.7Botswana: −16.0Namibia: −8.0Rwanda: −3.5Tanzania: −11.7Ethiopia: −10.0Uganda: −9.5Côte d'Ivoire: −7.0Seychelles: −0.5Zambia: −18.8Cabo Verde: −1.5Angola: −26.9Cameroon: −19.1Zimbabwe: −23.9Mozambique: −14.0Benin: −9.6Togo: −12.7Gabon: −29.9Madagascar: −15.5Malawi: −10.2Eswatini: −26.0Sierra Leone: −25.1Mauritania: −26.9Burkina Faso: −28.2Lesotho: −26.9Mali: −19.1Gambia: −9.6Djibouti: −9.0Congo: −34.7Guinea: −23.8Niger: −17.4Libya: −40.9Liberia: −21.9DR Congo: −38.6São Tomé & Príncipe: −10.0Equatorial Guinea: −41.4Sudan: −26.4Burundi: −10.8Comoros: −13.8Chad: −36.8Guinea-Bissau: −18.8Eritrea: −26.6Central African Rep.: −23.1Somalia: −26.8South Sudan: −43.4Africa mean: −16.2LibyaEquatorial GuineaSouth SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +10.9Mexico: +12.1Chile: +6.6Argentina: +1.9Colombia: +2.2Peru: −2.1Uruguay: +7.4Costa Rica: +6.1Panama: +0.9Dominican Republic: −7.9Ecuador: −7.5Trinidad & Tobago: −14.5Jamaica: −0.1Cuba: −20.7Paraguay: −16.8El Salvador: −3.6Guatemala: −5.6Barbados: −3.4Bahamas: −0.3Bolivia: −14.7Honduras: −13.7Venezuela: −11.4Guyana: −29.2Nicaragua: −17.6Antigua & Barbuda: −8.8Grenada: −6.5Suriname: −28.5Belize: −5.3Dominica: −7.8Saint Lucia: −4.4Saint Kitts & Nevis: −13.8Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −10.1Haiti: −39.0Latin America and Caribbean mean: −7.4Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −9.2Ukraine: −5.0Kazakhstan: −9.8Georgia: +1.0Belarus: −15.0Azerbaijan: −20.7Armenia: −6.8Moldova: −4.9Uzbekistan: −17.2Kyrgyzstan: −15.2Tajikistan: −26.7Turkmenistan: −34.9Russia and Eurasia mean: −13.7
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: South Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Libya. Highest: Netherlands, United Kingdom, Singapore.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−40−200+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 77.3, net position +15.00France (Europe): readiness 81.1, net position +26.10United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 79.3, net position +36.40Germany (Europe): readiness 80.6, net position +22.50Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 81.2, net position +23.10South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.1, net position +31.10China (China): readiness 72.9, net position +4.40Netherlands (Europe): readiness 76.3, net position +32.40Sweden (Europe): readiness 78.2, net position +30.90Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 66.9, net position +36.90Canada (North America): readiness 76.3, net position +13.00Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 72.2, net position +21.10Switzerland (Europe): readiness 75.6, net position +29.70Norway (Europe): readiness 68.7, net position +14.00Finland (Europe): readiness 75.5, net position +22.00Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 61.1, net position +20.70Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 70.8, net position +30.10Denmark (Europe): readiness 65, net position +21.80Spain (Europe): readiness 71.3, net position +11.90Italy (Europe): readiness 66.8, net position +8.00Belgium (Europe): readiness 71.3, net position +29.60New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 63.4, net position +20.10Austria (Europe): readiness 66.5, net position +18.70India (South Asia): readiness 54.6, net position +16.30Poland (Europe): readiness 61.6, net position +8.00Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 54.9, net position −9.20Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 61.2, net position +11.40Ireland (Europe): readiness 59.7, net position +17.00United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 60.1, net position +15.40Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58.4, net position +10.90Portugal (Europe): readiness 60.6, net position +9.90Czechia (Europe): readiness 61.2, net position +9.30Estonia (Europe): readiness 54.8, net position +13.30Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 60.5, net position +22.70Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 54.4, net position +1.30Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 57.7, net position +12.10Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 53.1, net position +20.10South Africa (Africa): readiness 57.4, net position +16.50Lithuania (Europe): readiness 56.2, net position +9.40Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 57.3, net position +14.90Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58, net position +6.60Greece (Europe): readiness 55.3, net position +6.90Hungary (Europe): readiness 58.5, net position +10.30Slovenia (Europe): readiness 57.4, net position +6.80Romania (Europe): readiness 53.8, net position −2.10Slovakia (Europe): readiness 53, net position +4.70Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 50.1, net position +0.30Latvia (Europe): readiness 52.4, net position +6.90Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.6, net position +14.40Iceland (Europe): readiness 51.5, net position +6.60Croatia (Europe): readiness 49.6, net position +2.30Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 40.2, net position −5.00Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.1, net position −7.30Morocco (Africa): readiness 50.4, net position +12.70Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.4, net position +1.90Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 49.7, net position +2.20Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 44.2, net position −3.50Serbia (Europe): readiness 47.6, net position −1.50Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 46.9, net position −1.70Malta (Europe): readiness 45, net position +9.40Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.9, net position +6.20Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 49.1, net position −2.10Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.3, net position +7.40Cyprus (Europe): readiness 42.7, net position +7.60Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31.4, net position −15.20Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 44.1, net position −9.80Mauritius (Africa): readiness 44.4, net position +7.70Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 43.2, net position −2.00Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 36.2, net position +4.00Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.5, net position +6.10Tunisia (Africa): readiness 40.5, net position +1.80Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41.3, net position +1.00Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 37.5, net position −14.40Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.5, net position +4.10Nigeria (Africa): readiness 36.7, net position −4.70Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.7, net position −9.00Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 39.4, net position −3.40Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 36, net position −18.90Kenya (Africa): readiness 39.1, net position +5.00Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 46.2, net position +0.90Ghana (Africa): readiness 39, net position −2.90Algeria (Africa): readiness 31.1, net position −18.30Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31, net position −15.00Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.8, net position −7.90Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 35.7, net position −20.70Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 36.4, net position −7.50Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 33.8, net position −12.10Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.5, net position −14.50Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 33, net position −6.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 36.9, net position −7.50Senegal (Africa): readiness 33.8, net position −4.70Montenegro (Europe): readiness 34.3, net position −1.80Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.5, net position −4.90Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.8, net position −0.10Albania (Europe): readiness 31.9, net position −14.30Botswana (Africa): readiness 28.1, net position −16.00Namibia (Africa): readiness 32.6, net position −8.00Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.2, net position −20.70Rwanda (Africa): readiness 30.1, net position −3.50Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.9, net position −17.20Monaco (Europe): readiness 27.9, net position −11.70Tanzania (Africa): readiness 33.8, net position −11.70Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 30.3, net position −15.30Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.8, net position −16.80Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 29.8, net position −15.80Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 30.5, net position −10.00El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.3, net position −3.60Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31, net position −5.60Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 31.9, net position −20.60Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.7, net position −3.40Uganda (Africa): readiness 30.5, net position −9.50Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 30.7, net position −7.00Seychelles (Africa): readiness 26.9, net position −0.50Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.7, net position −0.30Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 28.4, net position +2.50Andorra (Europe): readiness 25.3, net position −10.30Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.8, net position −14.70Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.6, net position −13.70San Marino (Europe): readiness 21.4, net position −31.10Nepal (South Asia): readiness 23.6, net position −0.30Zambia (Africa): readiness 28.2, net position −18.80Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 27.7, net position −17.70Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 23.7, net position −15.20Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 25.2, net position −1.50Kosovo (Europe): readiness 24.4, net position −23.80Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 20.7, net position −27.80Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 23.3, net position +4.60Maldives (South Asia): readiness 24.6, net position +6.40Angola (Africa): readiness 23.2, net position −26.90Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.4, net position −11.40Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position −29.20Cameroon (Africa): readiness 23.4, net position −19.10Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.1, net position −17.60Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.1, net position −8.80Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 25.3, net position −23.90North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.5, net position −17.60Mozambique (Africa): readiness 23.3, net position −14.00Benin (Africa): readiness 21.2, net position −9.60Togo (Africa): readiness 22.6, net position −12.70Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.8, net position −6.50Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.6, net position −28.50Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.7, net position −5.30Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 20.4, net position −26.70Gabon (Africa): readiness 22.2, net position −29.90Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 18.3, net position −22.40Madagascar (Africa): readiness 21.6, net position −15.50Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 18.8, net position −32.70Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.3, net position −7.80Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.1, net position −4.40Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.3, net position −13.80Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.1, net position −27.20Malawi (Africa): readiness 20.4, net position −10.20Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.3, net position −10.10Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.9, net position −6.80Eswatini (Africa): readiness 22.7, net position −26.00Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.9, net position −19.40Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 18.6, net position −25.10Mauritania (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position −26.90Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 16, net position −34.90Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.6, net position −6.30Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 18.3, net position −28.20Lesotho (Africa): readiness 18, net position −26.90Mali (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position −19.10Gambia (Africa): readiness 17, net position −9.60Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.5, net position −9.50Djibouti (Africa): readiness 18.3, net position −9.00Congo (Africa): readiness 17.4, net position −34.70Guinea (Africa): readiness 16.6, net position −23.80Niger (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position −17.40Libya (Africa): readiness 13.5, net position −40.90Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.3, net position −20.90Liberia (Africa): readiness 16.4, net position −21.90Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15, net position −6.30Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.4, net position −14.30DR Congo (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position −38.60São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 13.7, net position −10.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.9, net position −9.60Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 13.5, net position −41.40Sudan (Africa): readiness 11.6, net position −26.40Burundi (Africa): readiness 12.3, net position −10.80Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.1, net position −7.90Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.5, net position −8.00Comoros (Africa): readiness 11.1, net position −13.80Chad (Africa): readiness 10.2, net position −36.80Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.4, net position −11.20Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.2, net position −11.60Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.5, net position −10.40Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position −18.80Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.5, net position −39.00Eritrea (Africa): readiness 7.8, net position −26.60Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.4, net position −19.30Holy See (Europe): readiness 3.8, net position −30.10Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 8.1, net position −23.10Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 6, net position −28.80Somalia (Africa): readiness 6.6, net position −26.80Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 6, net position −15.20South Sudan (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position −43.40United KingdomNetherlandsSingaporeLibyaEquatorial GuineaSouth Sudan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: protected incumbent producers that lose market share to member exporters, and non-members that lose investment to members.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+36.943.56.56780Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
2United KingdomEuropeGainer+36.441.95.57978Technical & Vocational Skills 15 · Advanced
3NetherlandsEuropeGainer+32.439.67.37679Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established
4South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+31.140.79.68080Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
5SwedenEuropeGainer+30.939.08.17880Transport Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced
6TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+30.140.210.17166Trade Policy & Market Access 13.5 · Established
7SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+29.737.47.77683Energy Infrastructure 14 · Established
8BelgiumEuropeGainer+29.639.59.87171Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
9FranceEuropeGainer+26.131.95.88183Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
10JapanIndo-PacificGainer+23.130.77.58183Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
11MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+22.742.419.76162Energy Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
12GermanyEuropeGainer+22.528.96.48186Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced
13FinlandEuropeGainer+22.031.39.37677Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
14DenmarkEuropeGainer+21.832.810.96575Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
15AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+21.133.712.57270Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established
16IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+20.728.17.46165Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
18LuxembourgEuropeGainer+20.130.410.35360Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
17New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+20.130.810.76365Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
19AustriaEuropeGainer+18.730.011.36773Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional
20IrelandEuropeGainer+17.035.018.06067Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional
21South AfricaAfricaGainer+16.534.517.95757Technical & Vocational Skills 11 · Transitional
22IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+16.330.714.45559Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional
23United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastGainer+15.433.418.06064Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional
24United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+15.019.54.57786Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
25ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+14.936.321.45757Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Trade Policy & Market Access
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics
  • Transport Infrastructure
  • Energy Infrastructure
  • Technical & Vocational Skills
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Investment Attraction & Projection
  • Digital & Services Trade

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Export Capability & Sophistication
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
Gain exposure

regional exposure (40%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); share of population aged under 15 (ranked) (30%).

Loss exposure

Protected incumbent producers that lose market share to member exporters, and non-members that lose investment to members: regional exposure (60%); industry as a share of gdp (ranked) (40%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

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