Australia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 5.5
- rank 190 of 197 · 3 years: 5.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +22.8
- rank 22 of 197 · 3 years: +23.0
- Shock absorbed
- 60%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.01
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Australia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.53 | −1.27 | −0.51 | 0 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 11.9 · Transitional |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.90 | −0.49 | −1.15 | −0.47 | 0 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.2 · Established |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.75 | −0.46 | −1.16 | −0.46 | 0 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.82 | −0.42 | −1.15 | −0.42 | 0 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 12.3 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.60 | −0.40 | −0.89 | −0.37 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.77 | −0.36 | −0.86 | −0.35 | 0 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 12.3 · Established |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.27 | −0.70 | −0.27 | 0 | 5 | Economic Output & Productivity 13.9 · Established |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.39 | −0.22 | −0.56 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 11.5 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.44 | −0.22 | −0.56 | −0.22 | 0 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.8 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.35 | −0.21 | −0.55 | −0.21 | 0 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 12.8 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.59 | −0.27 | · | −0.71 | −0.62 | −0.74 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.64 | −0.35 | −0.64 | · | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.60 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.64 | −0.20 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.61 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.52 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.47 | −0.46 | −0.63 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.27 | −0.58 | −0.58 | · | −0.65 | −0.67 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.18 | · | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.36 | −0.59 | −0.41 | −0.37 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.29 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.15 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Australia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +53.9 | 54.8 | 0.9 | 76 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +53.1 | 65.2 | 12.1 | 79 | 4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 · Advanced |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +33.4 | 42.1 | 8.7 | 50 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +24.2 | 28.7 | 4.4 | 74 | 1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +21.1 | 33.7 | 12.5 | 72 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +14.3 | 26.5 | 12.2 | 51 | 22 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +8.3 | 22.2 | 13.9 | 73 | 73 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 19.5 | 15.2 | 77 | 77 | Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 26.5 | 22.6 | 68 | 112 | Energy Technologies 11.8 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 74 | 48 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Australia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 1.7% Possible · rank 148 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 15.2 Advanced → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 55 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 161 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 15.3 Advanced → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 93 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 175 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 154 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 70 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 15.9 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 69 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 54 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 15.6 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 83 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×4.7 | Financial System Depth & Access 16.4 |
| Food and water failure | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 124 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 16.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 174 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Health system failure | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 177 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 142 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×4.7 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 12.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 166 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 16.4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 57 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×4.7 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 33 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 68 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×4.9 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 110 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×5.3 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×5.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 16.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 95 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Artificial Intelligence 13 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.5 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Artificial Intelligence 13 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 42 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×7.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 19% Likely · rank 11 | Chronic disease advance Severe | ×0.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 |
| Capable digital government | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 15 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Trusted public institutions | 16.3 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 15 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Frontier AI and compute | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | 11% Likely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 12.2 Established → Established | 10% Likely · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 8.2% Likely · rank 19 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 7.5% Likely · rank 11 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 12.7 Established → Established | 4.7% Possible · rank 16 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| Research translated into value | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 4.7% Possible · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 12.5 Established → Established | 3.4% Possible · rank 29 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 3.0% Possible · rank 15 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 · reaches Frontier |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 15.7 Advanced → Advanced | 2.4% Possible · rank 17 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 2.2% Possible · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 2.2% Possible · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 24 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 25 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 1.5% Possible · rank 15 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 1.1% Possible · rank 23 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 12.8 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Wider international influence | 15.9 Advanced → Advanced | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 19 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 22 | Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.2 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 22 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.9 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.7 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |