Capture test · S18 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A public service platform reaches inclusive operation

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

DTechnology and infrastructure↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
30
net position above +10
Mixed
98
between the two
Losers
69
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+24
Australia

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−20−100+10+20Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +13.6Canada: +14.3North America mean: +13.9Europe 42France: +18.3United Kingdom: +16.6Germany: +14.6Netherlands: +14.5Sweden: +18.3Switzerland: +12.5Norway: +13.3Finland: +18.9Denmark: +13.4Spain: +11.1Italy: +9.0Belgium: +13.6Austria: +9.8Poland: +10.1Ireland: +10.2Portugal: +9.6Czechia: +9.8Estonia: +14.5Luxembourg: +7.1Lithuania: +9.5Greece: +6.6Hungary: +6.0Slovenia: +6.8Romania: +7.6Slovakia: +7.1Latvia: +8.7Iceland: +8.0Croatia: +4.4Serbia: +5.2Bulgaria: +4.0Malta: +3.1Cyprus: +2.9Liechtenstein: +0.7North Macedonia: +1.7Montenegro: +1.7Albania: +1.1Monaco: −3.5Bosnia & Herzegovina: −1.0Andorra: −2.2San Marino: −2.4Kosovo: −0.7Holy See: −10.2Europe mean: +7.4China 1China: −0.6China mean: −0.6Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +22.2South Korea: +21.7Singapore: +12.1Australia: +24.2Taiwan: +23.4New Zealand: +20.4Malaysia: +12.5Thailand: +8.3Indonesia: +12.6Vietnam: +6.3Philippines: +9.8Mongolia: +0.5Brunei: −10.7Fiji: −3.1Cambodia: −7.7North Korea: −16.5Myanmar: −12.9Papua New Guinea: −7.3Laos: −12.3Samoa: −6.4Tonga: −7.9Timor-Leste: −7.8Vanuatu: −8.3Solomon Islands: −9.1Palau: −10.6Marshall Islands: −12.0Micronesia: −11.7Kiribati: −12.0Tuvalu: −11.8Nauru: −13.9Indo-Pacific mean: −0.3AustraliaTaiwanSouth Asia 8India: +22.7Pakistan: +4.2Sri Lanka: −0.1Bangladesh: −4.3Nepal: −5.5Maldives: −10.9Bhutan: −11.1Afghanistan: −28.8South Asia mean: −4.2IndiaAfghanistanGulf and Middle East 16Israel: +18.5Türkiye: +3.8United Arab Emirates: −4.4Saudi Arabia: −4.9Qatar: −11.8Egypt: −2.2Iran: −6.3Oman: −6.6Kuwait: −9.1Jordan: −0.1Bahrain: −11.9Iraq: −11.8Lebanon: −11.5Palestine: −11.5Syria: −22.7Yemen: −24.1Gulf and Middle East mean: −7.3Africa 53South Africa: +21.9Morocco: +6.1Mauritius: +4.6Tunisia: +3.9Nigeria: +4.1Kenya: +7.6Ghana: +5.6Algeria: −5.9Senegal: +1.2Botswana: −1.3Namibia: +0.9Rwanda: +0.8Tanzania: −2.7Ethiopia: −5.2Uganda: −3.1Côte d'Ivoire: −6.3Seychelles: −6.3Zambia: −3.7Cabo Verde: −3.2Angola: −12.4Cameroon: −13.4Zimbabwe: −10.4Mozambique: −10.3Benin: −9.2Togo: −11.8Gabon: −17.1Madagascar: −11.3Malawi: −9.2Eswatini: −16.1Sierra Leone: −10.4Mauritania: −16.6Burkina Faso: −15.5Lesotho: −12.9Mali: −17.3Gambia: −11.7Djibouti: −19.8Congo: −18.3Guinea: −17.7Niger: −17.6Libya: −22.6Liberia: −14.2DR Congo: −19.3São Tomé & Príncipe: −15.0Equatorial Guinea: −25.1Sudan: −24.0Burundi: −20.9Comoros: −21.1Chad: −23.7Guinea-Bissau: −22.7Eritrea: −28.2Central African Rep.: −25.3Somalia: −25.3South Sudan: −27.8Africa mean: −10.9EritreaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +18.6Mexico: +12.0Chile: +12.7Argentina: +9.0Colombia: +7.0Peru: +4.6Uruguay: +7.9Costa Rica: +6.9Panama: −0.8Dominican Republic: −0.6Ecuador: +0.1Trinidad & Tobago: −1.8Jamaica: +1.0Cuba: −10.4Paraguay: −5.0El Salvador: −5.2Guatemala: −4.3Barbados: −3.6Bahamas: −6.3Bolivia: −5.5Honduras: −7.2Venezuela: −11.3Guyana: −11.6Nicaragua: −13.2Antigua & Barbuda: −8.3Grenada: −9.0Suriname: −10.0Belize: −7.4Dominica: −8.7Saint Lucia: −10.6Saint Kitts & Nevis: −11.4Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −10.4Haiti: −20.5Latin America and Caribbean mean: −3.1Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −11.7Ukraine: +1.5Kazakhstan: −10.9Georgia: −7.0Belarus: −19.5Azerbaijan: −17.2Armenia: −9.8Moldova: −9.1Uzbekistan: −17.2Kyrgyzstan: −15.7Tajikistan: −22.5Turkmenistan: −29.1Russia and Eurasia mean: −14.0Turkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Eritrea. Highest: India, Taiwan, Australia.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−20−100+10+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 79.2, net position +13.60France (Europe): readiness 79.7, net position +18.30United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 80.7, net position +16.60Germany (Europe): readiness 80, net position +14.60Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.3, net position +22.20South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 78.3, net position +21.70China (China): readiness 47.8, net position −0.60Netherlands (Europe): readiness 78.7, net position +14.50Sweden (Europe): readiness 82.1, net position +18.30Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 65.7, net position +12.10Canada (North America): readiness 76.4, net position +14.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 73.5, net position +24.20Switzerland (Europe): readiness 75.1, net position +12.50Norway (Europe): readiness 71.2, net position +13.30Finland (Europe): readiness 81.4, net position +18.90Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 69.4, net position +18.50Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 73.7, net position +23.40Denmark (Europe): readiness 70, net position +13.40Spain (Europe): readiness 65.2, net position +11.10Italy (Europe): readiness 64.1, net position +9.00Belgium (Europe): readiness 68.3, net position +13.60New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 59.5, net position +20.40Austria (Europe): readiness 62.2, net position +9.80India (South Asia): readiness 55.3, net position +22.70Poland (Europe): readiness 59.3, net position +10.10Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 38.8, net position −11.70Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.6, net position +3.80Ireland (Europe): readiness 60.4, net position +10.20United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 45.8, net position −4.40Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 53.8, net position +18.60Portugal (Europe): readiness 55.8, net position +9.60Czechia (Europe): readiness 54.4, net position +9.80Estonia (Europe): readiness 64.3, net position +14.50Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 50.3, net position +12.50Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.2, net position −4.90Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.6, net position +12.00Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 51.8, net position +7.10South Africa (Africa): readiness 47.7, net position +21.90Lithuania (Europe): readiness 53.5, net position +9.50Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 43.2, net position +8.30Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.6, net position +12.70Greece (Europe): readiness 46.9, net position +6.60Hungary (Europe): readiness 46.6, net position +6.00Slovenia (Europe): readiness 47.3, net position +6.80Romania (Europe): readiness 49, net position +7.60Slovakia (Europe): readiness 44.3, net position +7.10Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 41.5, net position +12.60Latvia (Europe): readiness 48.6, net position +8.70Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 37.5, net position +6.30Iceland (Europe): readiness 43.7, net position +8.00Croatia (Europe): readiness 40.7, net position +4.40Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 47.8, net position +1.50Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 31.4, net position −11.80Morocco (Africa): readiness 33.7, net position +6.10Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.7, net position +9.00Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.5, net position +7.00Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 32.7, net position −2.20Serbia (Europe): readiness 38.8, net position +5.20Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 38.4, net position +4.00Malta (Europe): readiness 38.7, net position +3.10Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.3, net position +9.80Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.4, net position +4.60Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 36.8, net position +7.90Cyprus (Europe): readiness 35.5, net position +2.90Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 29.2, net position −6.30Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31.8, net position −10.90Mauritius (Africa): readiness 34.8, net position +4.60Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.8, net position −6.60Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 33.5, net position +4.20Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.2, net position +6.90Tunisia (Africa): readiness 32.2, net position +3.90Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 32.3, net position −7.00Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 26.4, net position −9.10Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30.1, net position −0.10Nigeria (Africa): readiness 29, net position +4.10Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 26.8, net position −11.90Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 29.3, net position −0.10Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 32.4, net position +0.70Kenya (Africa): readiness 31.5, net position +7.60Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.7, net position −0.80Ghana (Africa): readiness 28.8, net position +5.60Algeria (Africa): readiness 23.1, net position −5.90Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.9, net position −19.50Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.8, net position −0.60Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 23.4, net position −17.20Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.6, net position +0.10Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 24.7, net position −4.30Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.3, net position −1.80Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.3, net position −9.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 27.6, net position +1.70Senegal (Africa): readiness 24, net position +1.20Montenegro (Europe): readiness 27.1, net position +1.70Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 29.2, net position −9.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.5, net position +1.00Albania (Europe): readiness 24.1, net position +1.10Botswana (Africa): readiness 24.2, net position −1.30Namibia (Africa): readiness 23.9, net position +0.90Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.9, net position −10.40Rwanda (Africa): readiness 25.8, net position +0.80Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 19.9, net position −17.20Monaco (Europe): readiness 25.3, net position −3.50Tanzania (Africa): readiness 21.6, net position −2.70Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 23.8, net position −1.00Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.3, net position −5.00Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24.1, net position +0.50Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 21.1, net position −5.20El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.2, net position −5.20Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.2, net position −4.30Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.8, net position −10.70Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.8, net position −3.60Uganda (Africa): readiness 21.3, net position −3.10Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 20.4, net position −6.30Seychelles (Africa): readiness 21.3, net position −6.30Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.4, net position −6.30Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 19.7, net position −3.10Andorra (Europe): readiness 24, net position −2.20Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.7, net position −5.50Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.9, net position −7.20San Marino (Europe): readiness 23.2, net position −2.40Nepal (South Asia): readiness 21.3, net position −5.50Zambia (Africa): readiness 19.9, net position −3.70Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.4, net position −7.70Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 18.4, net position −15.70Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 21.2, net position −3.20Kosovo (Europe): readiness 19.8, net position −0.70Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 17.3, net position −11.80Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 19.6, net position −11.50Maldives (South Asia): readiness 18.9, net position −10.90Angola (Africa): readiness 15.7, net position −12.40Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.2, net position −11.30Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.2, net position −11.60Cameroon (Africa): readiness 14.8, net position −13.40Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.6, net position −13.20Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.8, net position −8.30Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 16.7, net position −10.40North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 7.3, net position −16.50Mozambique (Africa): readiness 15.2, net position −10.30Benin (Africa): readiness 16.4, net position −9.20Togo (Africa): readiness 15.2, net position −11.80Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.4, net position −9.00Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.6, net position −10.00Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.4, net position −7.40Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 12.9, net position −22.50Gabon (Africa): readiness 13.7, net position −17.10Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 17.7, net position −11.10Madagascar (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position −11.30Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.8, net position −12.90Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.7, net position −8.70Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.9, net position −10.60Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.5, net position −11.40Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.2, net position −7.30Malawi (Africa): readiness 15, net position −9.20Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 15.5, net position −10.40Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 16.2, net position −11.50Eswatini (Africa): readiness 14.1, net position −16.10Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.9, net position −12.30Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position −10.40Mauritania (Africa): readiness 11.9, net position −16.60Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 10.2, net position −29.10Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.4, net position −6.40Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 12.7, net position −15.50Lesotho (Africa): readiness 13.2, net position −12.90Mali (Africa): readiness 11.2, net position −17.30Gambia (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −11.70Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.1, net position −7.90Djibouti (Africa): readiness 11.2, net position −19.80Congo (Africa): readiness 11.4, net position −18.30Guinea (Africa): readiness 11.7, net position −17.70Niger (Africa): readiness 10.9, net position −17.60Libya (Africa): readiness 9.3, net position −22.60Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.3, net position −7.80Liberia (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position −14.20Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.9, net position −8.30Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.3, net position −9.10DR Congo (Africa): readiness 9.6, net position −19.30São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 11.3, net position −15.00Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.8, net position −10.60Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 7.4, net position −25.10Sudan (Africa): readiness 7.4, net position −24.00Burundi (Africa): readiness 8.2, net position −20.90Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.6, net position −12.00Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.5, net position −11.70Comoros (Africa): readiness 8, net position −21.10Chad (Africa): readiness 6.7, net position −23.70Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7, net position −22.70Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.1, net position −12.00Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.2, net position −11.80Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 7.3, net position −22.70Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 7.3, net position −20.50Eritrea (Africa): readiness 4.5, net position −28.20Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.4, net position −13.90Holy See (Europe): readiness 8.1, net position −10.20Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 5.5, net position −25.30Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 4.8, net position −24.10Somalia (Africa): readiness 6.1, net position −25.30Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 4, net position −28.80South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4.1, net position −27.80AustraliaTaiwanIndiaTurkmenistanEritreaAfghanistan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: fee income of displaced intermediaries and gatekeepers; exclusion of poorly represented groups where safeguards are weak.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+24.228.74.47482Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 13.4 · Established
2TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+23.429.76.37475Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.3 · Established
3IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+22.738.716.05554Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
4JapanIndo-PacificGainer+22.227.75.57678Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established
5South AfricaAfricaGainer+21.935.613.84861Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6 · Foundational
6South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+21.727.15.47879Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15 · Advanced
7New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+20.424.94.66082Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
8FinlandEuropeGainer+18.920.81.98187Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15.6 · Advanced
9BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+18.630.311.75461Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
10IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+18.527.59.06970Justice System & Fundamental Rights 13 · Established
12SwedenEuropeGainer+18.320.42.08286Financial Infrastructure 16 · Advanced
11FranceEuropeGainer+18.321.43.18080Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
13United KingdomEuropeGainer+16.619.53.08180Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced
14GermanyEuropeGainer+14.617.22.68083Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced
16EstoniaEuropeGainer+14.518.13.66476Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.8 · Transitional
15NetherlandsEuropeGainer+14.516.92.47984Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15 · Advanced
17CanadaNorth AmericaGainer+14.318.94.57682Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.4 · Established
19BelgiumEuropeGainer+13.617.13.56877Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.6 · Established
18United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+13.619.05.37979Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.5 · Established
20DenmarkEuropeGainer+13.415.62.27085Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional
21NorwayEuropeGainer+13.315.52.27185Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.2 · Established
22ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+12.722.59.84467Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
23IndonesiaIndo-PacificGainer+12.624.712.14252Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
25MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+12.524.011.55054Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
24SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+12.515.22.77582Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.2 · Established

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure
  • Financial Infrastructure
  • Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
  • Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights
  • Digital & AI Competence

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights
  • Transparency, Oversight & Accountability
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Political Institutions & Civic Participation
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
Gain exposure

regional exposure (40%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (40%); share of population aged under 15 (ranked) (20%).

Loss exposure

Fee income of displaced intermediaries and gatekeepers; exclusion of poorly represented groups where safeguards are weak: regional exposure (100%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

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