Load test · S10 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

EHealthScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.69
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.01
Libya
Lose a domain band
165
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.25
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.38Canada: −0.51North America mean: −0.45United StatesEurope 42France: −0.46United Kingdom: −0.43Germany: −0.47Netherlands: −0.57Sweden: −0.54Switzerland: −0.53Norway: −0.54Finland: −0.55Denmark: −0.58Spain: −0.57Italy: −0.58Belgium: −0.67Austria: −0.59Poland: −0.63Ireland: −0.65Portugal: −0.66Czechia: −0.70Estonia: −0.70Luxembourg: −0.77Lithuania: −0.74Greece: −0.79Hungary: −0.77Slovenia: −0.74Romania: −0.69Slovakia: −0.74Latvia: −0.79Iceland: −0.73Croatia: −0.77Serbia: −0.76Bulgaria: −0.85Malta: −0.92Cyprus: −0.82Liechtenstein: −0.66North Macedonia: −0.87Montenegro: −0.90Albania: −0.81Monaco: −0.98Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.86Andorra: −0.89San Marino: −0.97Kosovo: −0.92Holy See: −0.74Europe mean: −0.71MonacoSan MarinoChina 1China: −0.41China mean: −0.41ChinaIndo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.46South Korea: −0.49Singapore: −0.56Australia: −0.46Taiwan: −0.60New Zealand: −0.55Malaysia: −0.70Thailand: −0.68Indonesia: −0.56Vietnam: −0.67Philippines: −0.57Mongolia: −0.84Brunei: −0.86Fiji: −0.82Cambodia: −0.73North Korea: −0.95Myanmar: −0.71Papua New Guinea: −0.57Laos: −0.76Samoa: −0.64Tonga: −0.71Timor-Leste: −0.65Vanuatu: −0.61Solomon Islands: −0.66Palau: −0.92Marshall Islands: −0.92Micronesia: −0.70Kiribati: −0.81Tuvalu: −0.86Nauru: −0.95Indo-Pacific mean: −0.70South Asia 8India: −0.43Pakistan: −0.53Sri Lanka: −0.55Bangladesh: −0.58Nepal: −0.59Maldives: −0.76Bhutan: −0.70Afghanistan: −0.54South Asia mean: −0.58Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.44Türkiye: −0.48United Arab Emirates: −0.51Saudi Arabia: −0.45Qatar: −0.53Egypt: −0.40Iran: −0.55Oman: −0.65Kuwait: −0.67Jordan: −0.67Bahrain: −0.72Iraq: −0.62Lebanon: −0.92Palestine: −0.65Syria: −0.58Yemen: −0.50Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.58EgyptAfrica 53South Africa: −0.59Morocco: −0.69Mauritius: −0.69Tunisia: −0.76Nigeria: −0.61Kenya: −0.46Ghana: −0.67Algeria: −0.70Senegal: −0.62Botswana: −0.75Namibia: −0.74Rwanda: −0.49Tanzania: −0.53Ethiopia: −0.48Uganda: −0.49Côte d'Ivoire: −0.59Seychelles: −0.84Zambia: −0.67Cabo Verde: −0.79Angola: −0.73Cameroon: −0.63Zimbabwe: −0.58Mozambique: −0.68Benin: −0.60Togo: −0.62Gabon: −0.90Madagascar: −0.66Malawi: −0.54Eswatini: −0.64Sierra Leone: −0.59Mauritania: −0.80Burkina Faso: −0.58Lesotho: −0.75Mali: −0.64Gambia: −0.80Djibouti: −0.93Congo: −0.80Guinea: −0.69Niger: −0.47Libya: −1.01Liberia: −0.68DR Congo: −0.72São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.68Equatorial Guinea: −0.79Sudan: −0.60Burundi: −0.59Comoros: −0.59Chad: −0.52Guinea-Bissau: −0.60Eritrea: −0.64Central African Rep.: −0.64Somalia: −0.73South Sudan: −0.70Africa mean: −0.67LibyaLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.58Mexico: −0.64Chile: −0.68Argentina: −0.68Colombia: −0.67Peru: −0.70Uruguay: −0.76Costa Rica: −0.75Panama: −0.75Dominican Republic: −0.76Ecuador: −0.74Trinidad & Tobago: −0.76Jamaica: −0.77Cuba: −0.71Paraguay: −0.80El Salvador: −0.85Guatemala: −0.66Barbados: −0.65Bahamas: −0.84Bolivia: −0.76Honduras: −0.77Venezuela: −0.96Guyana: −0.73Nicaragua: −0.83Antigua & Barbuda: −0.73Grenada: −0.80Suriname: −0.87Belize: −0.73Dominica: −0.86Saint Lucia: −0.75Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.77Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.82Haiti: −0.68Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.75Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.56Ukraine: −0.72Kazakhstan: −0.66Georgia: −0.82Belarus: −0.93Azerbaijan: −0.75Armenia: −0.90Moldova: −0.76Uzbekistan: −0.69Kyrgyzstan: −0.72Tajikistan: −0.59Turkmenistan: −0.69Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.73
  • Region mean
Lowest: Libya, Monaco, San Marino. Highest: China, Egypt, United States.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.38France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.46United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.43Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.47Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.46South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.49China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.41Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.57Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.54Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.56Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.51Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.46Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.53Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.54Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.55Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.44Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.60Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.58Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.57Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.58Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.67New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.55Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.59India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.43Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.63Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.56Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.48Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.65United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.51Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.58Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.66Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.70Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.70Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.70Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.45Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.64Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.77South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.59Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.74Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.68Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.68Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.79Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.77Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.74Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.69Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.74Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.56Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.79Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.67Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.73Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.77Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.72Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.53Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.69Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.68Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.67Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.40Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.76Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.85Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.92Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.57Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.70Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.76Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.82Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.55Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.66Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.69Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.65Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.53Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.75Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.76Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.82Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.67Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.67Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.61Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.72Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.55Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.66Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.46Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.75Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.67Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.70Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.93Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.76Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.75Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.74Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.58Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.76Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.90North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.87Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.62Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.90Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.76Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.77Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.81Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.75Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.74Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.71Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.49Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.69Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.98Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.53Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.86Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.80Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.84Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.48El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.85Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.66Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.86Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.65Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.49Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.59Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.84Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.84Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.82Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.89Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.76Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.77San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.97Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.59Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.67Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.73Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.72Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.79Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.92Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.62Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.92Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.76Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.73Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.96Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.73Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.63Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.83Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.73Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.58North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.95Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.68Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.60Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.62Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.80Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.87Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.73Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.59Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.90Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.70Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.66Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.71Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.86Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.75Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.77Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.57Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.54Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.82Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.65Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.64Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.76Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.59Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.80Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.69Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.64Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.58Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.75Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.64Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.80Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.71Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.93Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.80Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.69Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.47Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −1.01Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.65Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.68Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.61Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.66DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.72São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.68Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.92Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.79Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.60Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.59Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.92Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.70Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.59Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.52Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.58Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.81Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.86Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.60Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.68Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.64Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.95Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.74Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.64Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.50Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.73Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.54South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.70United StatesChinaEgyptMonacoSan MarinoLibya
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Human Capital

Governance & Integrity

Information & Influence

Financial Strength

Trade & Investment

Production & Innovation

Critical Technology

Strategic Infrastructure

National Security

−0.92

−0.87

−0.81

−0.81

−0.79

−0.78

−0.53

−0.38

−0.29

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
LibyaAfricaHigh 0.783.012.00−1.01−33.5▼ 82813%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 1.005.914.94−0.98−16.5▼ 521 · 4d32%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.975.034.06−0.97−19.3▼ 421 · 3d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.764.553.59−0.96−21.2▼ 430 · 3d18%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.9 · Inception
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.774.263.31−0.95−22.4▼ 421 · 1d18%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.821.961.01−0.95−48.5▼ 313 · 2d10%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BelarusRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.866.905.97−0.93−13.5▼ 427 · 4d31%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.783.202.27−0.93−29.1▼ 526 · 4d15%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.978.897.97−0.92−10.3▼ 127 · 4d39%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.794.703.79−0.92−19.5▼ 419 · 1d21%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.754.663.74−0.92−19.7▼ 526 · 2d20%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.2 · Inception
PalauIndo-PacificHigh 0.782.841.92−0.92−32.3▼ 220 · 2d14%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.772.481.56−0.92−36.9▼ 414 · 2d12%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.816.655.75−0.90−13.6▼ 117 · 3d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.826.355.45−0.90−14.2▼ 315 · 5d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
GabonAfricaHigh 0.753.943.04−0.90−22.9▼ 917 · 2d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AndorraEuropeHigh 0.915.154.26−0.89−17.3▼ 321 · 2d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.806.615.74−0.87−13.2▼ 121 · 3d28%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception
SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.754.043.17−0.87−21.5▼ 721 · 3d17%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.755.804.93−0.86−14.9▼ 416 · 4d24%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.805.604.74−0.86−15.4▼ 320 · 3d27%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.763.873.01−0.86−22.2▼ 617 · 3d18%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
TuvaluIndo-PacificHigh 0.732.121.26−0.86−40.5▼ 310 · 1d11%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
BulgariaEuropeHigh 0.868.958.11−0.85−9.5▼ 123 · 3d37%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.745.684.83−0.85−14.9▼ 322 · 4d25%Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies· High
  • Social Infrastructure· Medium
  • Foundational Education· High
  • Population Health· High
  • Health System Capability· High
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Labour & Employment· High
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics· High
Buffers
  • Health System Capability
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Information Environment & Strategic Communication
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Communications & Digital Infrastructure

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

regional exposure (30%); urban share of population (30%); share of population aged 65 and over (ranked) (20%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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