Load test · S03 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A regional war closes a globally important sea route

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

BGeopolitical and securityScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.79
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.22
Lebanon
Lose a domain band
152
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.28
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1.2−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.16Canada: −0.26North America mean: −0.21United StatesEurope 42France: −0.48United Kingdom: −0.43Germany: −0.55Netherlands: −0.57Sweden: −0.61Switzerland: −0.83Norway: −0.28Finland: −0.61Denmark: −0.52Spain: −0.59Italy: −0.59Belgium: −0.77Austria: −0.80Poland: −0.68Ireland: −0.87Portugal: −0.75Czechia: −0.83Estonia: −0.63Luxembourg: −0.97Lithuania: −0.86Greece: −0.74Hungary: −0.81Slovenia: −0.90Romania: −0.54Slovakia: −0.87Latvia: −0.89Iceland: −0.84Croatia: −0.78Serbia: −0.88Bulgaria: −0.85Malta: −1.03Cyprus: −1.04Liechtenstein: −1.00North Macedonia: −1.04Montenegro: −1.03Albania: −0.63Monaco: −1.03Bosnia & Herzegovina: −1.05Andorra: −0.95San Marino: −1.00Kosovo: −1.07Holy See: −0.65Europe mean: −0.78China 1China: −0.35China mean: −0.35Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.48South Korea: −0.57Singapore: −0.71Australia: −0.22Taiwan: −0.75New Zealand: −0.50Malaysia: −0.42Thailand: −0.66Indonesia: −0.35Vietnam: −0.63Philippines: −0.66Mongolia: −0.84Brunei: −0.54Fiji: −1.03Cambodia: −1.12North Korea: −1.07Myanmar: −0.48Papua New Guinea: −0.47Laos: −1.10Samoa: −0.98Tonga: −1.03Timor-Leste: −0.51Vanuatu: −0.96Solomon Islands: −1.00Palau: −0.90Marshall Islands: −0.98Micronesia: −0.99Kiribati: −0.99Tuvalu: −0.91Nauru: −1.01Indo-Pacific mean: −0.76CambodiaLaosSouth Asia 8India: −0.50Pakistan: −0.61Sri Lanka: −0.86Bangladesh: −0.69Nepal: −0.96Maldives: −1.08Bhutan: −0.98Afghanistan: −0.89South Asia mean: −0.82Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.40Türkiye: −0.61United Arab Emirates: −0.69Saudi Arabia: −0.61Qatar: −0.87Egypt: −0.36Iran: −0.92Oman: −0.45Kuwait: −0.97Jordan: −0.95Bahrain: −0.99Iraq: −1.00Lebanon: −1.22Palestine: −1.07Syria: −0.61Yemen: −0.89Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.79LebanonAfrica 53South Africa: −0.58Morocco: −0.68Mauritius: −0.84Tunisia: −0.63Nigeria: −0.27Kenya: −0.71Ghana: −0.29Algeria: −0.22Senegal: −0.71Botswana: −0.81Namibia: −0.88Rwanda: −0.81Tanzania: −0.57Ethiopia: −0.75Uganda: −0.79Côte d'Ivoire: −0.48Seychelles: −0.92Zambia: −0.85Cabo Verde: −0.87Angola: −0.32Cameroon: −0.26Zimbabwe: −0.81Mozambique: −0.37Benin: −0.83Togo: −0.80Gabon: −0.38Madagascar: −0.86Malawi: −0.84Eswatini: −0.89Sierra Leone: −0.80Mauritania: −0.88Burkina Faso: −0.84Lesotho: −0.94Mali: −0.84Gambia: −0.92Djibouti: −0.99Congo: −0.36Guinea: −0.88Niger: −0.41Libya: −0.47Liberia: −0.86DR Congo: −0.64São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.77Equatorial Guinea: −0.32Sudan: −0.55Burundi: −0.89Comoros: −0.78Chad: −0.29Guinea-Bissau: −0.80Eritrea: −0.85Central African Rep.: −0.80Somalia: −0.90South Sudan: −0.49Africa mean: −0.68Latin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.16Mexico: −0.28Chile: −0.55Argentina: −0.19Colombia: −0.19Peru: −0.30Uruguay: −0.70Costa Rica: −0.77Panama: −0.78Dominican Republic: −0.76Ecuador: −0.27Trinidad & Tobago: −0.32Jamaica: −0.80Cuba: −0.46Paraguay: −0.83El Salvador: −0.87Guatemala: −0.76Barbados: −0.67Bahamas: −0.84Bolivia: −0.29Honduras: −0.86Venezuela: −0.33Guyana: −0.39Nicaragua: −0.91Antigua & Barbuda: −0.89Grenada: −0.90Suriname: −0.51Belize: −0.80Dominica: −0.83Saint Lucia: −0.88Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.88Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.85Haiti: −0.77Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.62BrazilColombiaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.25Ukraine: −0.66Kazakhstan: −0.38Georgia: −0.97Belarus: −0.93Azerbaijan: −0.45Armenia: −1.07Moldova: −1.03Uzbekistan: −0.58Kyrgyzstan: −0.95Tajikistan: −0.98Turkmenistan: −0.42Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.72
  • Region mean
Lowest: Lebanon, Cambodia, Laos. Highest: Colombia, United States, Brazil.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.5−0.30Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.16France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.48United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.43Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.55Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.48South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.57China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.35Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.57Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.61Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.71Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.26Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.22Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.83Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.28Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.61Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.40Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.75Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.52Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.59Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.59Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.77New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.50Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.80India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.50Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.68Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.25Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.61Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.87United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.69Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.16Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.75Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.83Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.63Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.42Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.61Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.28Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.97South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.58Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.86Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.66Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.55Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.74Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.81Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.90Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.54Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.87Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.35Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.89Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.63Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.84Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.78Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.66Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.87Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.68Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.19Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.19Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.36Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.88Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.85Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −1.03Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.66Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.30Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.70Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −1.04Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.92Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.38Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.84Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.45Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.61Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.77Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.63Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.97Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.97Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.95Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.27Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.99Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.86Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −1.00Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.71Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.78Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.29Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.22Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.93Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.76Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.45Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.27Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.69Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.32Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −1.07North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −1.04Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.71Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −1.03Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −1.03Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.80Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.63Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.81Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.88Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.46Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.81Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.58Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −1.03Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.57Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −1.05Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.83Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.84Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.75El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.87Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.76Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.54Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.67Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.79Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.48Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.92Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.84Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −1.03Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.95Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.29Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.86San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −1.00Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.96Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.85Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −1.12Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.95Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.87Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −1.07Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −1.00Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −1.22Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −1.08Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.32Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.33Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.39Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.26Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.91Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.89Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.81North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −1.07Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.37Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.83Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.80Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.90Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.51Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.80Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.98Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.38Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.98Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.86Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.48Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.83Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.88Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.88Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.47Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.84Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.85Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −1.07Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.89Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −1.10Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.80Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.88Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.42Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.98Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.84Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.94Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.84Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.92Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −1.03Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.99Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.36Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.88Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.41Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.47Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.51Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.86Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.96Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −1.00DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.64São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.77Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.90Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.32Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.55Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.89Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.98Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.99Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.78Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.29Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.61Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.99Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.91Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.80Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.77Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.85Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −1.01Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.65Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.80Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.89Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.90Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.89South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.49United StatesBrazilColombiaCambodiaLebanonLaos
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Trade & Investment

Strategic Infrastructure

Governance & Integrity

Financial Strength

Production & Innovation

National Security

Human Capital

Information & Influence

Critical Technology

−0.99

−0.97

−0.97

−0.91

−0.77

−0.75

−0.39

−0.39

−0.31

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
LebanonGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.994.663.44−1.22−26.1▼ 1132 · 3d15%Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception
CambodiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.974.933.81−1.12−22.7▼ 626 · 2d19%Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception
LaosIndo-PacificHigh 0.953.702.60−1.10−29.7▼ 625 · 3d16%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
MaldivesSouth AsiaHigh 0.984.623.54−1.08−23.4▼ 527 · 1d17%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.986.655.59−1.07−16.0▼ 122 · 3d24%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
KosovoEuropeHigh 0.944.703.63−1.07−22.8▼ 621 · 1d17%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 1.004.263.19−1.07−25.2▼ 824 · 1d22%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception
PalestineGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.903.722.65−1.07−28.7▼ 618 · 4d12%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeHigh 0.945.804.74−1.05−18.2▼ 1021 · 5d21%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
CyprusEuropeHigh 0.998.517.47−1.04−12.2▼ 228 · 3d28%Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
North MacedoniaEuropeHigh 0.976.615.57−1.04−15.7▼ 128 · 5d25%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
MaltaEuropeHigh 0.998.897.86−1.03−11.6▼ 230 · 4d28%Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception
MontenegroEuropeHigh 0.956.355.32−1.03−16.2▼ 422 · 7d26%Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception
MoldovaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.926.345.31−1.03−16.3▼ 426 · 8d20%Maritime Power 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 1.005.914.88−1.03−17.4▼ 818 · 2d19%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.945.164.13−1.03−19.9▼ 628 · 1d21%Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception
TongaIndo-PacificHigh 0.943.212.17−1.03−32.3▼ 821 · 4d13%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
NauruIndo-PacificHigh 0.971.960.96−1.01−51.2▼ 112 · 2d9%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
LiechtensteinEuropeHigh 1.007.226.22−1.00−13.9▼ 729 · 5d19%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 1.005.034.02−1.00−20.0▼ 518 · 3d15%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
IraqGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.904.693.69−1.00−21.3▼ 426 · 2d23%Maritime Power 1.2 · Inception
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.912.911.91−1.00−34.3▼ 620 · 3d13%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
BahrainGulf and Middle EastHigh 1.007.326.33−0.99−13.5▼ 832 · 1d32%Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.863.202.21−0.99−31.0▼ 625 · 4d15%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
MicronesiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.932.331.33−0.99−42.7▼ 31611%Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Resource Infrastructure· High
  • Energy Infrastructure· High
  • Transport Infrastructure· High
  • Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment· High
  • Maritime Power· High
  • Strategic Strike & Missile Defence· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics· High
  • Economic Leverage & Dependence· High
Buffers
  • Energy Infrastructure
  • Resource Infrastructure
  • Maritime Power
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production (45%); regional exposure (35%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others. Energy import dependence marks the importers this scenario reaches. These Gulf exporters import little energy but lie inside the default theatre, where exports stop and facilities are struck, so they are set by hand. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have some pipeline capacity that bypasses the strait.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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