Load test · S07 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A major disaster disables the national economic core

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

CEnergy, climate and resourcesScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.52
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.12
Haiti
Lose a domain band
146
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.18
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.51Canada: −0.29North America mean: −0.40Europe 42France: −0.41United Kingdom: −0.12Germany: −0.22Netherlands: −0.28Sweden: −0.18Switzerland: −0.23Norway: −0.22Finland: −0.18Denmark: −0.24Spain: −0.37Italy: −0.46Belgium: −0.28Austria: −0.29Poland: −0.28Ireland: −0.20Portugal: −0.38Czechia: −0.29Estonia: −0.27Luxembourg: −0.29Lithuania: −0.35Greece: −0.45Hungary: −0.48Slovenia: −0.40Romania: −0.39Slovakia: −0.29Latvia: −0.24Iceland: −0.40Croatia: −0.36Serbia: −0.38Bulgaria: −0.44Malta: −0.33Cyprus: −0.44Liechtenstein: −0.18North Macedonia: −0.42Montenegro: −0.45Albania: −0.66Monaco: −0.30Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.44Andorra: −0.29San Marino: −0.46Kosovo: −0.62Holy See: −0.46Europe mean: −0.34United KingdomFinlandLiechtensteinChina 1China: −0.58China mean: −0.58Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.46South Korea: −0.50Singapore: −0.29Australia: −0.42Taiwan: −0.50New Zealand: −0.42Malaysia: −0.45Thailand: −0.36Indonesia: −0.75Vietnam: −0.51Philippines: −0.74Mongolia: −0.53Brunei: −0.79Fiji: −0.41Cambodia: −0.55North Korea: −0.90Myanmar: −1.01Papua New Guinea: −0.72Laos: −0.61Samoa: −0.59Tonga: −0.81Timor-Leste: −0.97Vanuatu: −0.89Solomon Islands: −0.89Palau: −0.68Marshall Islands: −0.69Micronesia: −0.57Kiribati: −0.65Tuvalu: −0.65Nauru: −0.66Indo-Pacific mean: −0.63MyanmarSouth Asia 8India: −0.62Pakistan: −0.65Sri Lanka: −0.44Bangladesh: −0.58Nepal: −0.55Maldives: −0.43Bhutan: −0.41Afghanistan: −0.83South Asia mean: −0.56Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.38Türkiye: −0.52United Arab Emirates: −0.24Saudi Arabia: −0.30Qatar: −0.28Egypt: −0.56Iran: −0.63Oman: −0.35Kuwait: −0.32Jordan: −0.63Bahrain: −0.36Iraq: −0.46Lebanon: −0.59Palestine: −0.45Syria: −0.47Yemen: −0.43Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.44Africa 53South Africa: −0.45Morocco: −0.67Mauritius: −0.41Tunisia: −0.71Nigeria: −0.57Kenya: −0.57Ghana: −0.47Algeria: −0.77Senegal: −0.55Botswana: −0.47Namibia: −0.45Rwanda: −0.45Tanzania: −0.63Ethiopia: −0.70Uganda: −0.74Côte d'Ivoire: −0.52Seychelles: −0.58Zambia: −0.65Cabo Verde: −0.74Angola: −0.59Cameroon: −0.54Zimbabwe: −0.60Mozambique: −0.78Benin: −0.43Togo: −0.51Gabon: −0.53Madagascar: −0.76Malawi: −0.76Eswatini: −0.46Sierra Leone: −0.44Mauritania: −0.56Burkina Faso: −0.49Lesotho: −0.48Mali: −0.65Gambia: −0.58Djibouti: −1.02Congo: −0.63Guinea: −0.44Niger: −0.48Libya: −0.55Liberia: −0.48DR Congo: −0.78São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.61Equatorial Guinea: −0.74Sudan: −0.55Burundi: −0.63Comoros: −0.69Chad: −0.52Guinea-Bissau: −0.48Eritrea: −0.86Central African Rep.: −0.61Somalia: −0.73South Sudan: −0.82Africa mean: −0.60DjiboutiLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.47Mexico: −0.70Chile: −0.53Argentina: −0.70Colombia: −0.63Peru: −0.74Uruguay: −0.51Costa Rica: −0.77Panama: −0.42Dominican Republic: −0.72Ecuador: −0.82Trinidad & Tobago: −0.49Jamaica: −0.52Cuba: −0.63Paraguay: −0.50El Salvador: −0.82Guatemala: −0.81Barbados: −0.48Bahamas: −0.67Bolivia: −0.62Honduras: −0.88Venezuela: −0.77Guyana: −0.48Nicaragua: −0.89Antigua & Barbuda: −0.57Grenada: −0.61Suriname: −0.56Belize: −0.66Dominica: −0.77Saint Lucia: −0.58Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.61Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.65Haiti: −1.12Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.66HaitiRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.56Ukraine: −0.43Kazakhstan: −0.42Georgia: −0.41Belarus: −0.31Azerbaijan: −0.34Armenia: −0.51Moldova: −0.27Uzbekistan: −0.63Kyrgyzstan: −0.54Tajikistan: −0.55Turkmenistan: −0.74Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.48
  • Region mean
Lowest: Haiti, Djibouti, Myanmar. Highest: Finland, Liechtenstein, United Kingdom.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.51France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.41United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.12Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.22Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.46South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.50China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.58Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.28Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.18Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.29Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.29Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.42Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.23Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.22Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.18Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.38Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.50Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.24Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.37Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.46Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.28New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.42Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.29India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.62Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.28Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.56Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.52Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.20United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.24Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.47Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.38Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.29Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.27Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.45Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.30Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.70Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.29South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.45Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.35Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.36Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.53Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.45Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.48Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.40Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.39Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.29Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.75Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.24Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.51Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.40Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.36Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.43Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.28Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.67Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.70Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.63Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.56Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.38Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.44Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.33Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.74Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.74Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.51Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.44Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.63Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.42Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.41Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.35Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.65Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.77Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.71Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.41Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.32Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.63Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.57Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.36Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.44Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.18Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.57Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.42Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.47Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.77Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.31Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.72Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.34Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.82Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.58Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.49Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.51North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.42Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.55Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.45Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.27Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.52Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.66Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.47Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.45Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.63Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.45Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.63Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.30Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.63Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.44Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.50Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −0.53Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.70El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.82Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.81Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.79Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.48Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.74Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.52Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.58Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.67Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.41Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.29Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.62Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.88San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.46Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.55Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.65Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.55Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.54Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.74Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.62Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.46Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.59Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.43Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.59Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.77Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.48Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.54Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.89Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.57Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.60North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −0.90Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.78Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.43Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.51Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.61Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.56Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.66Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.55Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.53Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.41Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.76Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −1.01Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.77Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.58Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.61Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.72Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.76Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.65Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.45Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.46Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.61Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.44Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.56Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.74Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.59Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.49Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.48Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.65Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.58Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.81Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −1.02Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.63Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.44Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.48Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.55Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.97Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.48Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.89Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.89DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.78São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.61Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.68Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.74Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.55Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.63Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.69Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.57Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.69Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.52Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.47Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.65Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.65Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.48Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −1.12Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.86Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.66Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.46Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.61Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.43Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.73Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.83South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.82United KingdomFinlandLiechtensteinMyanmarDjiboutiHaiti
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Strategic Infrastructure

Financial Strength

Governance & Integrity

Production & Innovation

Trade & Investment

Human Capital

Information & Influence

National Security

Critical Technology

−0.80

−0.77

−0.72

−0.66

−0.66

−0.64

−0.29

−0.25

−0.03

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.922.030.90−1.12−55.4▼ 51010%National Resilience & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
DjiboutiAfricaHigh 0.883.202.18−1.02−31.9▼ 628 · 5d17%Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.3 · Inception
MyanmarIndo-PacificHigh 0.863.892.88−1.01−25.9▼ 1429 · 5d17%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.6 · Inception
Timor-LesteIndo-PacificHigh 0.862.982.02−0.97−32.5▼ 827 · 4d18%Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.4 · Inception
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 0.834.263.36−0.90−21.2▼ 81917%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception
NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.844.373.48−0.89−20.3▼ 520 · 2d25%Financial System Depth & Access 3.5 · Nascent
VanuatuIndo-PacificHigh 0.802.932.04−0.89−30.4▼ 423 · 1d19%Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.5 · Inception
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.802.912.02−0.89−30.6▼ 418 · 3d19%Energy Infrastructure 0.5 · Inception
HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.855.054.17−0.88−17.4▼ 728 · 5d26%Energy Infrastructure 4.2 · Nascent
EritreaAfricaHigh 0.712.011.15−0.86−42.8▼ 210 · 1d11%Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception
AfghanistanSouth AsiaHigh 0.701.460.64−0.83−56.60910%Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception
EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.886.765.94−0.82−12.1▼ 524 · 1d33%Energy Infrastructure 5.7 · Nascent
El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.855.684.85−0.82−14.5▼ 428 · 5d31%Energy Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.681.380.55−0.82−59.8028%Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.815.674.86−0.81−14.2▼ 223 · 5d28%Financial System Depth & Access 5.1 · Nascent
TongaIndo-PacificHigh 0.753.212.40−0.81−25.2▼ 521 · 4d21%Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.7 · Inception
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.885.604.81−0.79−14.1▼ 323 · 3d36%Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
MozambiqueAfricaHigh 0.704.123.34−0.78−18.9▼ 81620%Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
DR CongoAfricaHigh 0.642.872.09−0.78−27.2▲ 125 · 5d13%Financial System Depth & Access 1.1 · Inception
Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.977.766.99−0.77−9.9▼ 426 · 4d43%Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
AlgeriaAfricaHigh 0.836.966.19−0.77−11.1▼ 323 · 4d33%Financial System Depth & Access 5.1 · Nascent
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.684.553.78−0.77−17.0▼ 327 · 4d18%Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.1 · Inception
DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.773.873.10−0.77−20.0▼ 518 · 4d26%Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
MadagascarAfricaHigh 0.683.903.14−0.76−19.5▼ 51320%Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
MalawiAfricaHigh 0.693.763.01−0.76−20.1▼ 520 · 2d21%Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 64 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Energy Infrastructure· High
  • Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure· High
  • Transport Infrastructure· High
  • Social Infrastructure· High
  • Health System Capability· High
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration· High
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management· High
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance· High
  • Financial System Depth & Access· High
  • Industrial & Sectoral Base· High
  • Trade Facilitation & Logistics· High
Buffers
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Health System Capability
  • Social Infrastructure

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation (50%); regional exposure (30%); urban share of population (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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