Capture test · S14 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

A verified Middle East settlement restores access

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

BGeopolitical and security↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
65
net position above +10
Mixed
98
between the two
Losers
34
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+51
Türkiye

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−40−200+20+40Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +10.7Canada: −0.2North America mean: +5.3Europe 42France: +41.9United Kingdom: +35.9Germany: +41.5Netherlands: +33.9Sweden: +37.5Switzerland: +32.0Norway: +9.9Finland: +35.8Denmark: +24.0Spain: +33.6Italy: +30.7Belgium: +29.5Austria: +28.0Poland: +37.0Ireland: +25.2Portugal: +26.7Czechia: +29.4Estonia: +20.1Luxembourg: +23.3Lithuania: +21.9Greece: +21.7Hungary: +28.9Slovenia: +21.6Romania: +25.4Slovakia: +28.8Latvia: +23.5Iceland: +19.2Croatia: +21.4Serbia: +20.7Bulgaria: +16.3Malta: +13.4Cyprus: +14.3Liechtenstein: +8.0North Macedonia: +16.0Montenegro: +16.5Albania: +6.3Monaco: +6.7Bosnia & Herzegovina: +12.1Andorra: +5.0San Marino: +4.7Kosovo: +10.5Holy See: −0.4Europe mean: +22.3FranceChina 1China: +29.8China mean: +29.8Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +36.4South Korea: +34.9Singapore: +29.0Australia: +8.3Taiwan: +24.5New Zealand: +24.9Malaysia: −1.4Thailand: +26.1Indonesia: −9.8Vietnam: +12.5Philippines: +16.8Mongolia: +0.7Brunei: −28.9Fiji: +5.8Cambodia: +9.5North Korea: +6.3Myanmar: −30.2Papua New Guinea: −34.9Laos: +10.7Samoa: −4.1Tonga: −5.3Timor-Leste: −38.7Vanuatu: +4.7Solomon Islands: +5.0Palau: −6.4Marshall Islands: −8.9Micronesia: +3.6Kiribati: +2.7Tuvalu: +1.3Nauru: +2.6Indo-Pacific mean: +3.3South Asia 8India: +23.3Pakistan: +15.2Sri Lanka: +16.2Bangladesh: +17.9Nepal: +10.3Maldives: +0.9Bhutan: +6.5Afghanistan: −9.5South Asia mean: +10.1Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +41.8Türkiye: +51.0United Arab Emirates: +9.6Saudi Arabia: +10.6Qatar: −3.4Egypt: +22.1Iran: +9.0Oman: −6.6Kuwait: −11.6Jordan: +39.0Bahrain: −12.9Iraq: −29.3Lebanon: +18.1Palestine: +9.5Syria: +4.4Yemen: +1.6Gulf and Middle East mean: +9.6IsraelTürkiyeAfrica 53South Africa: +16.6Morocco: +16.5Mauritius: +10.5Tunisia: +8.4Nigeria: −23.4Kenya: +21.4Ghana: −18.6Algeria: −21.9Senegal: +5.9Botswana: +7.5Namibia: +5.4Rwanda: +12.4Tanzania: +0.8Ethiopia: +16.4Uganda: +12.3Côte d'Ivoire: +5.8Seychelles: +5.5Zambia: +8.7Cabo Verde: −3.9Angola: −34.7Cameroon: −34.6Zimbabwe: +4.8Mozambique: −39.9Benin: +7.7Togo: −1.6Gabon: −40.3Madagascar: +2.4Malawi: +2.6Eswatini: +2.4Sierra Leone: +2.8Mauritania: +6.2Burkina Faso: +6.1Lesotho: +1.0Mali: +6.9Gambia: −3.0Djibouti: +7.2Congo: −39.3Guinea: −2.4Niger: +0.3Libya: −42.1Liberia: −2.8DR Congo: −0.2São Tomé & Príncipe: −11.3Equatorial Guinea: −44.8Sudan: −9.7Burundi: +2.0Comoros: −2.4Chad: −44.1Guinea-Bissau: −1.9Eritrea: −0.7Central African Rep.: −0.5Somalia: −1.6South Sudan: −49.3Africa mean: −5.1South SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −8.3Mexico: −8.1Chile: +10.8Argentina: −3.5Colombia: −21.4Peru: −8.6Uruguay: +7.8Costa Rica: +7.0Panama: +1.3Dominican Republic: +6.1Ecuador: −36.2Trinidad & Tobago: −32.0Jamaica: −6.4Cuba: −2.7Paraguay: +1.8El Salvador: +1.6Guatemala: +1.5Barbados: −8.6Bahamas: −9.8Bolivia: −34.7Honduras: 0.0Venezuela: −48.5Guyana: −40.9Nicaragua: −0.4Antigua & Barbuda: −12.3Grenada: −2.4Suriname: −10.6Belize: −5.8Dominica: −3.1Saint Lucia: −13.2Saint Kitts & Nevis: −3.2Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −3.1Haiti: −6.0Latin America and Caribbean mean: −8.8VenezuelaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −29.0Ukraine: +0.8Kazakhstan: −33.4Georgia: +3.1Belarus: −0.1Azerbaijan: −40.4Armenia: +0.8Moldova: −1.5Uzbekistan: −4.0Kyrgyzstan: −14.8Tajikistan: −3.5Turkmenistan: −52.2Russia and Eurasia mean: −14.5Turkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: Turkmenistan, South Sudan, Venezuela. Highest: Israel, France, Türkiye.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−40−200+20+40Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 80.4, net position +10.70France (Europe): readiness 82.2, net position +41.90United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 82.2, net position +35.90Germany (Europe): readiness 78.8, net position +41.50Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 77.3, net position +36.40South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 76.2, net position +34.90China (China): readiness 53.4, net position +29.80Netherlands (Europe): readiness 74.8, net position +33.90Sweden (Europe): readiness 77.1, net position +37.50Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 61.5, net position +29.00Canada (North America): readiness 78.2, net position −0.20Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 72.8, net position +8.30Switzerland (Europe): readiness 60.6, net position +32.00Norway (Europe): readiness 69.6, net position +9.90Finland (Europe): readiness 74.4, net position +35.80Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 60, net position +41.80Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 50.3, net position +24.50Denmark (Europe): readiness 63.3, net position +24.00Spain (Europe): readiness 70.8, net position +33.60Italy (Europe): readiness 66.3, net position +30.70Belgium (Europe): readiness 63.6, net position +29.50New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 63.1, net position +24.90Austria (Europe): readiness 54.7, net position +28.00India (South Asia): readiness 57.2, net position +23.30Poland (Europe): readiness 61.8, net position +37.00Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 46.6, net position −29.00Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 56.5, net position +51.00Ireland (Europe): readiness 49.9, net position +25.20United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 52.6, net position +9.60Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 58, net position −8.30Portugal (Europe): readiness 57.3, net position +26.70Czechia (Europe): readiness 56.6, net position +29.40Estonia (Europe): readiness 54.8, net position +20.10Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 54.7, net position −1.40Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 46.3, net position +10.60Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 50.6, net position −8.10Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 45.1, net position +23.30South Africa (Africa): readiness 53.7, net position +16.60Lithuania (Europe): readiness 54, net position +21.90Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 52.8, net position +26.10Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 51.2, net position +10.80Greece (Europe): readiness 55, net position +21.70Hungary (Europe): readiness 52.3, net position +28.90Slovenia (Europe): readiness 50.4, net position +21.60Romania (Europe): readiness 52.4, net position +25.40Slovakia (Europe): readiness 50.6, net position +28.80Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 51.2, net position −9.80Latvia (Europe): readiness 49.9, net position +23.50Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 41, net position +12.50Iceland (Europe): readiness 38.1, net position +19.20Croatia (Europe): readiness 47.6, net position +21.40Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 52, net position +0.80Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 44.6, net position −3.40Morocco (Africa): readiness 47.4, net position +16.50Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.1, net position −3.50Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 49.4, net position −21.40Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.8, net position +22.10Serbia (Europe): readiness 45.8, net position +20.70Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 46.2, net position +16.30Malta (Europe): readiness 38.3, net position +13.40Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 45.1, net position +16.80Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.7, net position −8.60Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 38.3, net position +7.80Cyprus (Europe): readiness 38.3, net position +14.30Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 34.6, net position +9.00Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 39.8, net position −33.40Mauritius (Africa): readiness 34.4, net position +10.50Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 41.4, net position −6.60Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 40.4, net position +15.20Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.9, net position +7.00Tunisia (Africa): readiness 38.9, net position +8.40Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 40.6, net position +3.10Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 38.5, net position −11.60Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 42.3, net position +39.00Nigeria (Africa): readiness 39.9, net position −23.40Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 35.3, net position −12.90Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 38.9, net position +16.20Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 22.2, net position +8.00Kenya (Africa): readiness 38.7, net position +21.40Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 34.9, net position +1.30Ghana (Africa): readiness 36.3, net position −18.60Algeria (Africa): readiness 37.9, net position −21.90Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 28.9, net position −0.10Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31, net position +6.10Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.2, net position −40.40Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 35.1, net position −36.20Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 35.5, net position +17.90Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 31.3, net position −32.00Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 33.1, net position +0.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 33.8, net position +16.00Senegal (Africa): readiness 34.4, net position +5.90Montenegro (Europe): readiness 33.9, net position +16.50Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 33.2, net position −1.50Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.3, net position −6.40Albania (Europe): readiness 32.2, net position +6.30Botswana (Africa): readiness 28.5, net position +7.50Namibia (Africa): readiness 28.6, net position +5.40Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.8, net position −2.70Rwanda (Africa): readiness 30.8, net position +12.40Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 31.1, net position −4.00Monaco (Europe): readiness 23.8, net position +6.70Tanzania (Africa): readiness 30.1, net position +0.80Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 29.4, net position +12.10Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.5, net position +1.80Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 30.2, net position +0.70Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 32.5, net position +16.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.8, net position +1.60Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 28.4, net position +1.50Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 27.3, net position −28.90Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.8, net position −8.60Uganda (Africa): readiness 31.1, net position +12.30Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 27.7, net position +5.80Seychelles (Africa): readiness 24, net position +5.50Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.6, net position −9.80Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 25.4, net position +5.80Andorra (Europe): readiness 19, net position +5.00Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.2, net position −34.70Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.7, net position 0.00San Marino (Europe): readiness 17.9, net position +4.70Nepal (South Asia): readiness 25.2, net position +10.30Zambia (Africa): readiness 25.8, net position +8.70Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 24.9, net position +9.50Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 26.8, net position −14.80Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 21, net position −3.90Kosovo (Europe): readiness 24.8, net position +10.50Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 27.8, net position −29.30Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.7, net position +18.10Maldives (South Asia): readiness 22.7, net position +0.90Angola (Africa): readiness 26, net position −34.70Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.5, net position −48.50Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.3, net position −40.90Cameroon (Africa): readiness 24, net position −34.60Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.7, net position −0.40Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.6, net position −12.30Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 24.9, net position +4.80North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.1, net position +6.30Mozambique (Africa): readiness 22.6, net position −39.90Benin (Africa): readiness 21, net position +7.70Togo (Africa): readiness 21.3, net position −1.60Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.9, net position −2.40Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.9, net position −10.60Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.4, net position −5.80Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 25, net position −3.50Gabon (Africa): readiness 21.3, net position −40.30Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 16.8, net position +6.50Madagascar (Africa): readiness 20.4, net position +2.40Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.5, net position −30.20Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.4, net position −3.10Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16, net position −13.20Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.1, net position −3.20Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20.7, net position −34.90Malawi (Africa): readiness 19.5, net position +2.60Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16, net position −3.10Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 17.5, net position +9.50Eswatini (Africa): readiness 17.8, net position +2.40Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20.9, net position +10.70Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 19.9, net position +2.80Mauritania (Africa): readiness 20.7, net position +6.20Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 17.8, net position −52.20Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.1, net position −4.10Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position +6.10Lesotho (Africa): readiness 16.4, net position +1.00Mali (Africa): readiness 19.6, net position +6.90Gambia (Africa): readiness 17.4, net position −3.00Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.6, net position −5.30Djibouti (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +7.20Congo (Africa): readiness 17.5, net position −39.30Guinea (Africa): readiness 16.5, net position −2.40Niger (Africa): readiness 18.5, net position +0.30Libya (Africa): readiness 15.3, net position −42.10Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.1, net position −38.70Liberia (Africa): readiness 15.8, net position −2.80Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.6, net position +4.70Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.2, net position +5.00DR Congo (Africa): readiness 17.2, net position −0.20São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position −11.30Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.7, net position −6.40Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 14.9, net position −44.80Sudan (Africa): readiness 14.2, net position −9.70Burundi (Africa): readiness 15.2, net position +2.00Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.9, net position −8.90Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 11.6, net position +3.60Comoros (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position −2.40Chad (Africa): readiness 12.3, net position −44.10Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 13.3, net position +4.40Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.8, net position +2.70Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.9, net position +1.30Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 11.5, net position −1.90Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.4, net position −6.00Eritrea (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position −0.70Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.4, net position +2.60Holy See (Europe): readiness 12.1, net position −0.40Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 9.4, net position −0.50Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 9.1, net position +1.60Somalia (Africa): readiness 9.7, net position −1.60Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 9.5, net position −9.50South Sudan (Africa): readiness 9.5, net position −49.30FranceIsraelTürkiyeVenezuelaTurkmenistanSouth Sudan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: oil and gas exporters outside the settlement that lose the risk premium, and suppliers of arms and other earners of the conflict premium.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+51.055.54.55758Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 · Transitional
2FranceEuropeGainer+41.942.40.58282Internal Security & Order 15.7 · Advanced
3IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+41.848.46.56067Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional
4GermanyEuropeGainer+41.541.90.47985Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced
5JordanGulf and Middle EastGainer+39.042.13.14238Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 · Foundational
6SwedenEuropeGainer+37.540.22.77778Intelligence & Assessment 14.8 · Established
7PolandEuropeGainer+37.038.00.96262Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
8JapanIndo-PacificGainer+36.436.80.47786Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.5 · Established
9United KingdomEuropeGainer+35.936.40.58280Internal Security & Order 16 · Advanced
10FinlandEuropeGainer+35.839.03.27474Alliances & Security Cooperation 14 · Established
11South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+34.936.92.07681Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
12NetherlandsEuropeGainer+33.936.93.07580Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established
13SpainEuropeGainer+33.636.83.27168Intelligence & Assessment 13.5 · Established
14SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+32.032.40.46183Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional
15ItalyEuropeGainer+30.733.22.56669Justice System & Fundamental Rights 12.3 · Established
16ChinaChinaGainer+29.830.40.55379Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 · Foundational
17BelgiumEuropeGainer+29.533.74.36472Intelligence & Assessment 11 · Transitional
18CzechiaEuropeGainer+29.430.41.05761Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional
19SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+29.030.81.86286Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
20HungaryEuropeGainer+28.930.01.15257Intelligence & Assessment 9.5 · Transitional
21SlovakiaEuropeGainer+28.831.62.85156Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.8 · Foundational
22AustriaEuropeGainer+28.028.70.75572Intelligence & Assessment 8.5 · Foundational
23PortugalEuropeGainer+26.729.12.45761Intelligence & Assessment 10 · Transitional
24ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+26.127.11.05360Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.8 · Transitional
25RomaniaEuropeGainer+25.426.71.25252Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.3 · Transitional

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • Alliances & Security Cooperation
  • Intelligence & Assessment
  • Internal Security & Order
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Justice System & Fundamental Rights
  • Social Infrastructure
  • Energy Infrastructure
  • Transport Infrastructure

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
  • Export Capability & Sophistication
Gain exposure

regional exposure (50%); share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production (20%); land borders with states in conflict or collapse (20%); refugees hosted per head of population (ranked) (10%).

Loss exposure

Oil and gas exporters outside the settlement that lose the risk premium, and suppliers of arms and other earners of the conflict premium: regional exposure (50%); oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter (50%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

1 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results