Capture test · S15 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

CEnergy, climate and resources↗ Upside scenarioScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers
80
net position above +10
Mixed
72
between the two
Losers
45
net position below -10
Largest net gain
+67
Germany

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−75−50−250+25+50Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +15.9Canada: +2.3North America mean: +9.1Europe 42France: +59.1United Kingdom: +40.6Germany: +66.6Netherlands: +48.8Sweden: +53.4Switzerland: +48.0Norway: +9.3Finland: +49.7Denmark: +33.8Spain: +50.8Italy: +48.7Belgium: +42.3Austria: +45.9Poland: +47.5Ireland: +38.1Portugal: +35.8Czechia: +47.0Estonia: +19.8Luxembourg: +26.7Lithuania: +24.9Greece: +22.2Hungary: +38.3Slovenia: +34.0Romania: +27.0Slovakia: +34.4Latvia: +24.5Iceland: +31.6Croatia: +26.1Serbia: +27.4Bulgaria: +20.6Malta: +11.9Cyprus: +12.1Liechtenstein: +20.9North Macedonia: +18.3Montenegro: +16.5Albania: +3.0Monaco: +9.7Bosnia & Herzegovina: +17.0Andorra: +9.1San Marino: +13.0Kosovo: +13.6Holy See: −1.5Europe mean: +30.2GermanyChina 1China: +53.1China mean: +53.1Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +62.6South Korea: +61.0Singapore: +46.0Australia: +3.9Taiwan: +57.5New Zealand: +28.7Malaysia: −9.7Thailand: +32.2Indonesia: −20.2Vietnam: +27.3Philippines: +25.4Mongolia: −0.9Brunei: −49.8Fiji: +3.5Cambodia: +13.8North Korea: +10.4Myanmar: −51.6Papua New Guinea: −63.2Laos: +10.3Samoa: −11.1Tonga: −12.3Timor-Leste: −69.0Vanuatu: +4.5Solomon Islands: +5.0Palau: −11.8Marshall Islands: −16.6Micronesia: +3.4Kiribati: +3.3Tuvalu: +1.2Nauru: +4.1Indo-Pacific mean: +2.9JapanSouth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: +31.3Pakistan: +15.0Sri Lanka: +23.0Bangladesh: +20.9Nepal: +13.6Maldives: −4.0Bhutan: +10.9Afghanistan: −16.8South Asia mean: +11.7Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: +9.3Türkiye: +34.1United Arab Emirates: −15.0Saudi Arabia: −22.8Qatar: −33.7Egypt: −3.4Iran: −18.0Oman: −41.7Kuwait: −48.6Jordan: +16.5Bahrain: −44.4Iraq: −67.5Lebanon: +3.9Palestine: +2.6Syria: −4.4Yemen: −3.7Gulf and Middle East mean: −14.8Africa 53South Africa: +33.9Morocco: +31.8Mauritius: +18.6Tunisia: +8.9Nigeria: −45.2Kenya: +19.9Ghana: −35.5Algeria: −47.1Senegal: +4.3Botswana: +15.6Namibia: +14.7Rwanda: +14.5Tanzania: −1.7Ethiopia: +14.6Uganda: +8.2Côte d'Ivoire: +1.6Seychelles: +9.7Zambia: +15.6Cabo Verde: −4.0Angola: −59.9Cameroon: −61.4Zimbabwe: +13.5Mozambique: −63.4Benin: +8.1Togo: −4.7Gabon: −62.2Madagascar: +7.9Malawi: +7.0Eswatini: +9.3Sierra Leone: +6.9Mauritania: +9.5Burkina Faso: +7.4Lesotho: +7.0Mali: +6.7Gambia: −3.1Djibouti: +5.0Congo: −67.7Guinea: −1.4Niger: −2.8Libya: −69.0Liberia: −0.2DR Congo: −0.2São Tomé & Príncipe: −13.4Equatorial Guinea: −68.7Sudan: −15.2Burundi: +2.8Comoros: +2.7Chad: −74.3Guinea-Bissau: +2.4Eritrea: +2.8Central African Rep.: +1.6Somalia: +2.3South Sudan: −80.0Africa mean: −8.8ChadSouth SudanLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −16.0Mexico: −5.2Chile: +32.8Argentina: +6.7Colombia: −37.4Peru: −7.9Uruguay: +20.4Costa Rica: +17.8Panama: +9.1Dominican Republic: +16.9Ecuador: −51.0Trinidad & Tobago: −44.6Jamaica: −1.5Cuba: +9.7Paraguay: +13.5El Salvador: +11.8Guatemala: +11.9Barbados: −3.4Bahamas: −7.1Bolivia: −46.9Honduras: +11.3Venezuela: −68.8Guyana: −60.2Nicaragua: +9.2Antigua & Barbuda: −9.5Grenada: +5.9Suriname: −6.1Belize: +0.4Dominica: +5.7Saint Lucia: −11.3Saint Kitts & Nevis: +6.4Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +5.4Haiti: +2.6Latin America and Caribbean mean: −5.4Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −28.0Ukraine: +16.3Kazakhstan: −42.9Georgia: +12.2Belarus: +16.0Azerbaijan: −52.9Armenia: +11.8Moldova: +0.1Uzbekistan: +6.4Kyrgyzstan: −11.4Tajikistan: +5.1Turkmenistan: −71.8Russia and Eurasia mean: −11.6Turkmenistan
  • Region mean
  • Net gain
  • Net loss
Lowest: South Sudan, Chad, Turkmenistan. Highest: South Korea, Japan, Germany.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

010203040506070−75−50−250+25+50Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 77.8, net position +15.90France (Europe): readiness 71.3, net position +59.10United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 75.7, net position +40.60Germany (Europe): readiness 75.2, net position +66.60Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 70.3, net position +62.60South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 69.7, net position +61.00China (China): readiness 73.1, net position +53.10Netherlands (Europe): readiness 69.9, net position +48.80Sweden (Europe): readiness 65.6, net position +53.40Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 57.8, net position +46.00Canada (North America): readiness 72.4, net position +2.30Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 68, net position +3.90Switzerland (Europe): readiness 53.2, net position +48.00Norway (Europe): readiness 63.9, net position +9.30Finland (Europe): readiness 62.4, net position +49.70Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 59.6, net position +9.30Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 60.4, net position +57.50Denmark (Europe): readiness 59.4, net position +33.80Spain (Europe): readiness 65, net position +50.80Italy (Europe): readiness 62.3, net position +48.70Belgium (Europe): readiness 57.5, net position +42.30New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 46.8, net position +28.70Austria (Europe): readiness 54.2, net position +45.90India (South Asia): readiness 53.9, net position +31.30Poland (Europe): readiness 55.1, net position +47.50Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 59.7, net position −28.00Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 55.9, net position +34.10Ireland (Europe): readiness 42.3, net position +38.10United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 51.3, net position −15.00Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 56.8, net position −16.00Portugal (Europe): readiness 45.7, net position +35.80Czechia (Europe): readiness 50.6, net position +47.00Estonia (Europe): readiness 40.7, net position +19.80Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 49.9, net position −9.70Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 48.6, net position −22.80Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 44.9, net position −5.20Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 33.4, net position +26.70South Africa (Africa): readiness 51.1, net position +33.90Lithuania (Europe): readiness 39.1, net position +24.90Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 44.9, net position +32.20Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.8, net position +32.80Greece (Europe): readiness 39.3, net position +22.20Hungary (Europe): readiness 48.5, net position +38.30Slovenia (Europe): readiness 42.3, net position +34.00Romania (Europe): readiness 43.6, net position +27.00Slovakia (Europe): readiness 41.6, net position +34.40Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 43.3, net position −20.20Latvia (Europe): readiness 32.8, net position +24.50Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 43.2, net position +27.30Iceland (Europe): readiness 37, net position +31.60Croatia (Europe): readiness 34.6, net position +26.10Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 40.3, net position +16.30Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 33.4, net position −33.70Morocco (Africa): readiness 39.7, net position +31.80Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 43.7, net position +6.70Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.6, net position −37.40Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 36.5, net position −3.40Serbia (Europe): readiness 33.8, net position +27.40Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 37.2, net position +20.60Malta (Europe): readiness 26.8, net position +11.90Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 34.9, net position +25.40Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.3, net position −7.90Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.6, net position +20.40Cyprus (Europe): readiness 26.1, net position +12.10Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.5, net position −18.00Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 35.7, net position −42.90Mauritius (Africa): readiness 25, net position +18.60Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 30, net position −41.70Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 35, net position +15.00Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.3, net position +17.80Tunisia (Africa): readiness 29, net position +8.90Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.7, net position +12.20Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 25.4, net position −48.60Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 28.1, net position +16.50Nigeria (Africa): readiness 29.5, net position −45.20Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 25, net position −44.40Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 25.6, net position +23.00Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 22, net position +20.90Kenya (Africa): readiness 27.4, net position +19.90Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.7, net position +9.10Ghana (Africa): readiness 26.4, net position −35.50Algeria (Africa): readiness 28.9, net position −47.10Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 30.3, net position +16.00Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23, net position +16.90Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.6, net position −52.90Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.6, net position −51.00Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 26.3, net position +20.90Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.4, net position −44.60Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 23.5, net position +11.80North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 21.3, net position +18.30Senegal (Africa): readiness 22.1, net position +4.30Montenegro (Europe): readiness 20.7, net position +16.50Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 20.7, net position +0.10Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.4, net position −1.50Albania (Europe): readiness 18.3, net position +3.00Botswana (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +15.60Namibia (Africa): readiness 23.2, net position +14.70Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.2, net position +9.70Rwanda (Africa): readiness 19.8, net position +14.50Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 27.5, net position +6.40Monaco (Europe): readiness 15.9, net position +9.70Tanzania (Africa): readiness 20.9, net position −1.70Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 20, net position +17.00Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19, net position +13.50Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20.6, net position −0.90Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 19, net position +14.60El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 18.3, net position +11.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.1, net position +11.90Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 20, net position −49.80Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 17.7, net position −3.40Uganda (Africa): readiness 19.6, net position +8.20Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 18.5, net position +1.60Seychelles (Africa): readiness 14.7, net position +9.70Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.4, net position −7.10Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15, net position +3.50Andorra (Europe): readiness 14.7, net position +9.10Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 20.3, net position −46.90Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 16.9, net position +11.30San Marino (Europe): readiness 14.3, net position +13.00Nepal (South Asia): readiness 17.3, net position +13.60Zambia (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position +15.60Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.1, net position +13.80Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 15.7, net position −11.40Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 13.8, net position −4.00Kosovo (Europe): readiness 15.4, net position +13.60Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 17.4, net position −67.50Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 15.1, net position +3.90Maldives (South Asia): readiness 13.5, net position −4.00Angola (Africa): readiness 16.3, net position −59.90Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.1, net position −68.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.4, net position −60.20Cameroon (Africa): readiness 14.5, net position −61.40Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 14.3, net position +9.20Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.2, net position −9.50Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 17.3, net position +13.50North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.9, net position +10.40Mozambique (Africa): readiness 15.8, net position −63.40Benin (Africa): readiness 12.5, net position +8.10Togo (Africa): readiness 12.7, net position −4.70Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.5, net position +5.90Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 13.8, net position −6.10Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 12.1, net position +0.40Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 14.1, net position +5.10Gabon (Africa): readiness 14, net position −62.20Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 12.2, net position +10.90Madagascar (Africa): readiness 11.7, net position +7.90Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.5, net position −51.60Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.2, net position +5.70Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.2, net position −11.30Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.7, net position +6.40Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.9, net position −63.20Malawi (Africa): readiness 11.3, net position +7.00Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 10.8, net position +5.40Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 12.3, net position +2.60Eswatini (Africa): readiness 12.2, net position +9.30Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 13.4, net position +10.30Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position +6.90Mauritania (Africa): readiness 12.8, net position +9.50Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 14.4, net position −71.80Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10, net position −11.10Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 10.4, net position +7.40Lesotho (Africa): readiness 9.8, net position +7.00Mali (Africa): readiness 10.3, net position +6.70Gambia (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position −3.10Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.3, net position −12.30Djibouti (Africa): readiness 8.8, net position +5.00Congo (Africa): readiness 10.8, net position −67.70Guinea (Africa): readiness 10, net position −1.40Niger (Africa): readiness 10.5, net position −2.80Libya (Africa): readiness 13.1, net position −69.00Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.8, net position −69.00Liberia (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position −0.20Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.2, net position +4.50Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.4, net position +5.00DR Congo (Africa): readiness 10.9, net position −0.20São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 8.4, net position −13.40Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 8.2, net position −11.80Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 9.6, net position −68.70Sudan (Africa): readiness 10.1, net position −15.20Burundi (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position +2.80Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.9, net position −16.60Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.9, net position +3.40Comoros (Africa): readiness 6.2, net position +2.70Chad (Africa): readiness 6.3, net position −74.30Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 8.6, net position −4.40Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.7, net position +3.30Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 5.9, net position +1.20Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 5.6, net position +2.40Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 6.2, net position +2.60Eritrea (Africa): readiness 5.2, net position +2.80Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 6.3, net position +4.10Holy See (Europe): readiness 3.3, net position −1.50Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 4.6, net position +1.60Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 5.2, net position −3.70Somalia (Africa): readiness 4.7, net position +2.30Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 4.6, net position −16.80South Sudan (Africa): readiness 4.5, net position −80.00GermanyJapanSouth KoreaTurkmenistanChadSouth Sudan
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: oil, gas and coal among a net exporter's main exports, and the public revenue and asset values that rest on them.

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

197 of 197 nations

Rank
Nation
Region
Position
Net
Capture
Loss
Readiness
Adaptability
Binding capability
1GermanyEuropeGainer+66.666.70.17585Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
2JapanIndo-PacificGainer+62.663.00.47084Resource Infrastructure 11.8 · Transitional
3South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+61.063.92.97080Resource Infrastructure 11.8 · Transitional
4FranceEuropeGainer+59.159.20.17181Resource Infrastructure 12.5 · Established
5TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+57.558.10.66074Resource Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
6SwedenEuropeGainer+53.457.03.66680Resource Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
7ChinaChinaGainer+53.153.50.47375Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established
8SpainEuropeGainer+50.855.24.46567Energy Technologies 12 · Established
9FinlandEuropeGainer+49.753.94.26276Resource Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
10NetherlandsEuropeGainer+48.853.24.47080Energy Technologies 12.4 · Established
11ItalyEuropeGainer+48.752.23.56266Energy Technologies 11.6 · Transitional
12SwitzerlandEuropeGainer+48.048.20.15383Resource Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
13PolandEuropeGainer+47.547.80.35562Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
14CzechiaEuropeGainer+47.047.30.35161Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
15SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+46.048.72.75886Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational
16AustriaEuropeGainer+45.946.10.25473Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
17BelgiumEuropeGainer+42.348.56.25872Resource Infrastructure 9.3 · Transitional
18United KingdomEuropeGainer+40.640.70.27679Resource Infrastructure 14.3 · Established
19HungaryEuropeGainer+38.338.60.34957Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
20IrelandEuropeGainer+38.138.30.24270Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
21PortugalEuropeGainer+35.838.52.74661Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
22SlovakiaEuropeGainer+34.437.63.24256Energy Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
23TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+34.141.47.35657Energy Technologies 10 · Transitional
24SloveniaEuropeGainer+34.039.55.54259Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
25South AfricaAfricaGainer+33.940.56.65156Energy Technologies 8.8 · Foundational

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Required
  • Energy Infrastructure
  • Energy Technologies
  • Resource Infrastructure
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls
  • Government Effectiveness & Public Administration
  • Financial System Depth & Access
  • Industrial & Sectoral Base
  • Technology Adoption & Diffusion
  • Technical & Vocational Skills

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
  • Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Export Capability & Sophistication
  • Lifelong Learning & Reskilling
Gain exposure

share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production (50%); regional exposure (30%); industry as a share of gdp (ranked) (20%).

Loss exposure

Oil, gas and coal among a net exporter's main exports, and the public revenue and asset values that rest on them: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter (85%); regional exposure (15%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results